Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Nam has mixing even over the mountains and foothills of NC at 21. Heavy snow into eastern KY as well. Precip on northern side lining up nicely. system has slowed down once again as well same time frame as noted above. Still around CHS at this point.
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Good obs on that! Confluence does look a little weaker up in Maine. LP is ever so slightly north at 15.
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The old GFS looked like it finally had a clue and then suffered from some form of convective feedback issues at 36, whereas at 33 it had the low just south of MYR. It attempted some weird double barrel low type structure at that point. It’s attempting but right now imo is the worst model for this thing. It’s time for high res models but I figured I’d point that out anyway.
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Yea you’re def right Poimen. RGEM is pretty amped up with the moisture influx and the intensity. Looks like sleet to zr with only northernmost zones of NC, mountains and then up into VA would remain snow with that look.
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Yea 3k at 32 has the low around Wilmington. That will promote warming and thus a more “sleety” sounding usually.
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6z CMC and 6z Euro from what I saw are now similar in depiction of LP placement I believe around the 33-36hr time frame. Qpf has gone up considerably down this way now. I was looking at obs down south. Lubbock TX was forecasted barely anything and they have like 6” on the ground.
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CMC for the win? Looks just like it. LP wise
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Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs.
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@BornAgain13 lmfao! Bro don’t even look at the CMC total snowfall it’s like 30” for you
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It’s the timing. Exactly what it is. Of course a 200 mile difference is going to affect the surface depiction. Hence why we say bye bye Jan 1.
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0z Canadian just out. Holds serve on bringing beefier precip up into northern areas. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
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@wncsnow @BornAgain13 looks like FV3 made incremental steps toward a wetter solution once again for southern VA. Good area of 1” qpf now showing up. Very good sign.
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Yea for real! And the RGEM and the ICON. Either all 3 of those are smoking something good or the GFS is up to its usual bs ways. FV3 has been behaving more like the first 3 models. The system slowing down is having huge implications on being able to make somewhat of a northward trek up toward hatteras and that is why the gfs looks so much different imo. I’m thinking ultimate track is CHS to MYR to Hatteras and then east from there when the confluence shuts it down.
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Old GFS is out there on its own with the speed of the system. Hauling ass by hr24, whereas some of the other models discussed are well to the west of where the GFS has the LP.
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Storms like these are always far from it. There is always some last minute trend and a lot of times you need to rely on observations and forecasting based on nowcasting as the storm develops more.
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Funny thing is man the track was fairly similar to 18z, just expanded the snow shield and spread the wealth so to speak. If the low traverses near Myrtle and up to Hatteras it’s a perfect track for us.
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You have RGEM/NAM(to an extent)/Canadian in a more northern camp. GFS last run slowly had the heavier precip creep back north but this would only be good for southern VA. Basically you have those 3 I mentioned first vs EURO/GFS/UKMET. I mean if anything I’d personally rather have the high res models in my favor. I know the precip down south has been laying down some serious qpf totals in TX so hopefully this translates up this way. Obv we know there is going to be a ridiculous cutoff zone. Btw, RGEM track looks pretty similar to 18z, just looks like better expansion of heavier snow shield.
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0z RGEM another northern system. Does a miller b like transfer to CHS and heads up the coast to the outer banks. Heavy heavy snows northernmost NC/mountains and foothills and all of southern VA. Double digit totals throughout that whole region.
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For what it’s worth ICON has been rock steady as well. 0z still has it CHS to MYR. Heavy snows Greensboro, Winston Salem, Mt Airy and on up into ROA. CLT looks to be a rain sounding if the ICON comes to fruition.
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Great post Don!
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Yes that would be my assumption with it. It had a great track once it got going east of Savannah but then played hop scotch over the Atlantic lol! That should promote some form of southeast flow with that track and at least aid in lift for a little. Honestly if I got 8” I’d be tickled.
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I can’t even do a pbp for the 3k. That low is jumping around like a darn hot potato. Taken at face value I would def take it for my area.
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3k is your best bet in these instances. Which speaking of I was about to post the 34hr 3k has the low just a little further north up in southeastern AL/Panhandle of FL. Great moisture influx streaming up the Appalachians and into NC. Looks like snow for sure most of NC (CLT) included. 1034 HP sitting west of Harrisburg, PA.
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48hrs ends up pretty similar to 18z with low placement. Just off the coast of the outer banks. Pressure down to 996. Finger of moisture extends back over southern VA.
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42 hrs looks more like the 12z run. More east northeast with the low compared to 18z. 18z was down by CHS, 0z is east southeast of MYR and not scraping the coastline this go around.
