Buddy1987

What a bomb on the 6z. Track like that I40 in NC up into VA and the DC guys would have a nice storm as it goes from MYR to inside Wilmington to RIC

6z gfs is just a thing of beauty. Just an absolute raking for the I40 area north. Storm goes from MYR to inside Wilmington to RIC.

100%! Southeast moisture flow and advection would create lift and wring out the atmosphere. The low is undergoing what would normally transpire off the cape and southeast new england after it passes our latitude. Good stuff

All that is the gravy train. We all want the surface and the upper atmosphere to behave. Give me that track come Wednesday and I'd feel pretty good. SE flow would aid in enhancement for sure at least up this way and WNC

I dont see how we all dont feel at least somewhat positive with how consistent this has been with support of the ensembles as well. Def a somewhat wonky run with what the low does and the ull crashes down like a roller coaster leaving its highest point. At least for me where I'm sitting right now storm going boom right off MYR makes me excited.

I would bet $100 no way as time got closer if that came to fruition that surface would be such a sharp cutoff with a storm going under bombogenesis. 1001-981 in 12 hours. NW side of storm would be going bananas. That ULL would determine a good bit.

Thing basically goes under bombogenesis from 168-180 goes from like 1001 to 981. You would think CCB would be for real on the NW side with a storm strengthening that much off MYR.

I posted in MA forum with this as well but that screams convective feedback issues on the GFS. Typical if ULL is going to supercharge the storm as it forms off CHS/MYR

Gonna go with the ole major convective feedback issues looking at surface with that low. Good thing is it's there.

Yup and HP subsequently displaced too far north/northwest. It's an Op run so well see what ensembles show. Watch Euro come out of left field now Edit: HP does kind of slide in tandem but like you alluded to the GL low is a fly in the ointment.

I could see places along I40 depending on the damming and cad possibly be a sleet scenario where effects of the low overtake the more dense colder air at the surface. Of course all this is contingent on the low taking the exact track it portrays now.

Euro is literally a tick away imo from showing something much bigger and this has been showcased by some on here and mid Atlantic. It's starting to sniff out something that resembles what the GFS and GEFS have been showcasing run after run without a hiccup. Maybe the upgrade has done wonders. Would love to know verification scores since the upgrade.

Imho I think you asked great questions. Limited knowledge thinking would have me tell you root for a stronger high and the block to not be transient in eastern Canada and to hold. Stronger the LP colder the high better results in my opinion. Want ridge to be a little taller out west. Lots to disseminate as the PAC NW just chucks these shortwaves out. Other issue is in some instances we have sparse data up in Canada to where as these ripples come through H5 may take some swings for better or worse. Encouraging the euro finally is wanting to have a similar idea the GFS has been showing.

Track like that signals big snows for WNC/SVA. Any further east and you're going to start getting a good bit of the board excited. Long long way to go with this however good to see HP parked near Toronto.

Am I imagining things or does Euro have a tendency to not be on steroids during a certain time frame. I know the tendency to not eject s/w out of the southwest u.s. but Idk if I'm just confusing it to where itll dig storms to Cuba and then correct itself.

Have to say I'm quite shocked at the 12z suite. Was not expecting to come on in and see that euro and GFS actually have somewhat of a friendly relationship in the midst of a long battle for the last 5+ days. Just need to fine tune. Gfs was an absolute demolishing for my area. Hopefully everyone can get in on some fun. Much needed for snow starved lovers.

Down to 28/21. Forecasted low of 30 tonight.

Got 28/21 down in ROA area. Already 2 degrees cooler than forecasted for overnight low. Forecast of 30 before warming. Looking to get a nice glaze out of this. Tricky travel potentially tomorrow morning.

Agreed only so much the storm can do with the banana highs anchoring in place to dictate the track. If it presented exactly as shown no way it cuts.

Agreed. Gentleman that posted right above you is over factoring the WAA. It has been very cold to start the year at least up this way with multiple nights below freezing coupled with a frosty 21 this morning. Combine this with the temp not getting above 39 today and any ice accrual will stick with satisfactory accrual rate.

Temp down to 32 with stars. Dewpoint of 15. Temp has ability to drop down to 26 with factoring in wet bulb as we sit. Definitely colder then what was projected for this time. Temp just dropped 2 degrees last 5 min now 30/15 pretty crazy the effect the HP is having as it is exiting stage right.

Nice to see you post man. Honestly a look like that it doesn't get much better. Love the banana highs along with blocking and tanking NAO. Regardless of what surface maps show is irrelevant. This look is going to produce fireworks if it keeps up with an active STJ. The STJ has been ripe all middle to late fall. All we need is the cold and blocking now and someone is going to get whacked.

Some have alluded to the fact that h5 on euro has had some pretty noticeable and significant changes to where some expect fireworks with the euro as the main players move into the right position. I dont believe it either. Do I entrust my faith fully in the GFS? Hell no but within the next 2-3 days we should get a better idea.

No way it's all rain with a track like that and a strengthening storm riding up the coast. CCB would be great with that. Dont care about temps right now care about track and look at H5.

Haha in the end I do have an advisory for .2 of ice. Can def cause problems.