Buddy1987

Man starting to get worried for my sister who lives in Summerville. No more than 30 miles from Walterboro to her house and that’s not on a direct line. This thing is incredible on the super res velocity.

Would someone be kind enough to post the NAM and GFS or any type of model output that shows for VA DC etc as to what squall line will look like when it blows through tomorrow morning? Or is there a site I can access that would show this in a better manner than instant weather maps. *I have Pivotal weather as well. That seems to be a bit better wrt svr parameters they offer.

The verbiage on the Day 2 synopsis is concerning considering they go with possible strong tornadoes and an outbreak and mention southern va and areas around. Not sure I’ve ever seen that in the 10 years I’ve lived here myself except maybe one time but the ingredients never came together.

More I look now more the parameters are the highest I’ve seen in some time for 0-1 helicity being 450-500 on the NAM and winds ripping right above the surface over 60 knots based on the GFS. Temps get close to 70. Question for the pros would be are we looking more at high shear low instability environment or do we have a chance to build up anything before everything comes together.

Kind of just starting to acclimate myself to this threat, as Blacksburg has somewhat kept it tepid. Do the ingredients get as far north as VA or is it more NC,SC and the Deep South on this one?

Gut shot would say anyone north and west of I40 would have the best odds we've had in a very long time. GGEM has been furthest south and more of a swing and a miss. GFS is and has been the most amped and Euro and ICON have been best case scenarios for a couple runs for the northern folks of the forum.

Makes sense then. Be honest man with the way the winter has been it's great to see for the time being and I'd rather be in the euro camp with this years trends etc bc the GFS has been the euro's biatch. Knocking on wood as we speak so I dont jinx the 0z Euro run. Hopefully GEFS improved because there were some decent hits at 18z.

Not even saying this because I'm wish casting but GFS has been atrocious with next weekend's storm. It has a different solution it seems almost every Zulu run. Now has cutter up into southern Ohio. Wont buy it until Euro and other models show something similar. Euro Canadian and Icon all in a similar camp compared to GFS.

Lmao just beat me to it. Was typing as you were posting.

FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming.

Going to be super nitpicky and say the western shield would probably be much more expansive. Big time snow track for western portions of the area with a low track over RIC.

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell.

I would never complain again hahahaha.

I saw you in here so I figured I'd make things easier on you hahahaha.

Not trying to be the debbie downer here but I think I'm ready to be reaped. I've tried all year to be positive but it seems like we all hope every 10 days out will be "that" storm to where it ends up being short sleeves and record highs. If I keep living in fantasy land before I know it I'm going to be needing to watch the tropics. This has been nothing short of disastrous. I want to hope that Bob, PSU and everyone else is right in pattern change sooner than later but we are running out of time and quickly. I'm not saying I'm getting my panties in a bunch bc next weekend doesn't look as promising but it's like every 10 days here the pattern has looked much better and then we go back to wtf is happening? I hope I'm proven wrong bc I truly love snow. Done ranting back to weather and tracking!

At least we can go with experience and know that the GFS has the tendency to drive low pressures into the highs and we all know how that normally plays out (gets forced a lot further south and east).

What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west

After the debacle of the GFS being on its own island this winter season continuously showing snowy scenarios and winter weather I have a hard time buying into it. With that said however support from Euro and EPS makes me feel a whole lot better. Time will tell here in the next couple days.

Snowing in Roanoke. Nice to see flakes this early. Hopefully the precip shield will get a bump here by mid morning from the vort.

Congrats everyone who got clobbered up that way! I was consistently modeled around 6” and got about 1.5 with crust on top due to sleet primarily falling. On to the next one.

My neighbor even texted me and was wondering wtf was going on. It’s been when the waves of heavier echoes had come through. Very cool although yes thunder snow would’ve been much better.

Getting crazy amounts of thunder sleet down here last two hours or so in SW VA. Heard it at least 6 different times. Sounds like transformers blowing but there not lol.

I am def grateful regardless. I really do think the warm layer is super shallow so anything that dumps should have it switch over to snow at least for a little. Guess we’ll see here. Have fun up that way!

Ugh dreaded sleet pellets pinging off the window. Hoping since we are in a little lull rates will overcome that bs. Was dumping when the first band moved through.

It is absolutely ripping fatties under this developing 30-35 dbz band. Roads and pavement are caving almost instantly.