Buddy1987

I do lmao!!

Man I hope this thing over performs for you guys. We were around 30 at 230am and then when snow commenced had shot up to 34. Once heavy rates had started temp dropped to 32 and everything has caved now including patios pavement etc.. closing in on 2" now.

I'm actually in roanoke county which is a good 1.5 hr drive nw of Danville.

If that's the case hopefully it way over performs up there with the larger numbers because the 12k nam is not even close down this way.

All jokes aside they are large. We are in an area of good dendritic growth right now and the flake size is responding to it. Yellows and oranges on the radar traversing my region.

Meatball flakes headed toward the DC crew. Picked up an inch here just in last 30 min I'd say. Its REALLY coming down.

GFS looking juicy with snow totals from ROA to CHO strip of 3-5 albeit temps very borderline.

1-3" between NAM ICON and GFS for SW VA at 12z by hr60 beggers can't be choosers with the way this winter has gone.

Man somewhat surprised to see this in the am. Bob and everyone were right where if we are going to get something it's going to show up last minute and not be modeled well because of the s/w's ripping through

Reading the posts here are depressing. I'm a huge winter enthusiast and it seems like each and every year it gets harder and harder for it to snow. Not just the southeast crew but the mid atlantic as well. I saw @kvegas-wx mention something that stood out to me that we have 10 weeks to cook some things up and its crazy how fast it goes. Need the pattern to flip quickly. We all know how the pac can work and spew the winter killing continental airmass over the country. Takes awhile to overcome this pattern doesn't just flip like a light switch. Here's to hoping and staying positive but it is hard at times.

Yea northern stream just took a big steaming dump to screw us. Icon a miss as well.

I love how this bowling ball of a vort just completely vanishes into thin air on the 0z GFS that was in the Ohio valley. Literally is a completely different outcome almost every run with what it feels like doing with the northern stream.

Gfs looks like it's taking a step back at 0z. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Too positively tilted. Northern stream not as robust. I'm at 84 hrs.

Looks like 0z nam and 18z GFS are a little different wrt southern energy. Nam is slower with the energy but nam also weaker with n/s s/w over the plains/northern us. Could still work if the nam went out in time with n/s maybe being able to catch a slower ejecting southern us s/w. Both highs looks good in eastern canada around 1042. Bored waiting for the GFS so figured I'd nitpick

I literally left the game over it. Time to reinvest in this being something more than a nuisance.

Who's ready for an 0z GFS shellacking?!

Salem VA which presides right next to Roanoke as biggest city. Southwestern virginia banked up against the apps.

Ideally this would be a pretty decent setup for northern areas of the viewing area as the colder air would funnel down the apps and have origins out of eastern canada and the st Lawrence valley. Would help just need it to come south some for the majority of the forum to make a difference.

Guys I gotta be honest I threw the towel in on this. Crazy to come back on and see CMC and GFS are pretty gung ho here. Cheers to less sleep and more model watching!

Dont get me wrong I'm usually team Euro but with a blizzard being a remote possibility had to root hard for the Gfs.

Going the wrong way. GL low refuses to drop in behind vort in the south. What could of been I guess.

0z GFS looks somewhat interesting early stages at 96 hrs with NS energy sharper. Will see where it goes from here. Canadian wasn't too far off at 12z.

GFS still suffering from major convective feedback. Has two areas of precip maxima at 156 and 162. One over the outer banks and one way off shore and the LP symbol showing up as 997 over the 2and area offshore. Kind of another wonky run this go around. Temps are the big issue now if the HP doesn't hang in there. I'm invested in this so there's no turning back even if the wheels are falling off. I feel like if this doesn't produce in any manner it could be awhile for the people who enjoy snow. The LR looks pretty abysmal.

Pesky ole Great Lakes low just wreaking havoc with temps. We lose everything at the surface even with a better track than 12z. Driving rain storm for everyone. We would need a more negative tilt with the vort in MS/AL for this thing to take off earlier and to get the damm Great Lakes low out of the way. I feel like every damn year that thing rears its ugly head.

Yes I concur with this as well. That is a very odd progression of the way a LP would behave and convective feedback has been an issue with a rapidly deepening storm such as this one.