Buddy1987

Lmao 4.6" here I'll believe it when hell freezes over.

We need some Jebman positivity to kick off the 0z runs. ICON will lead us off with a healthy storm.

Sounds like one of those setups where we wont know because of shortwaves flying around like crazy from the northern tier. Hard for models to time this out right until we get closer. I know you guys both know but when the timing is going to make or break because of how close it is to phasing or not we may not fully know the outcome until somewhere between 72-96 hours before it were to commence.

Were euro ensembles just as bad as the OP run for next weekend?

Bob what would we need to see from the CMC to be a bigger deal for the first wave. Does a weird jump from Arkansas down into southern Alabama in a 6 hr increment and then strengthens rapidly east of CHS.

Gut shot would say anyone north and west of I40 would have the best odds we've had in a very long time. GGEM has been furthest south and more of a swing and a miss. GFS is and has been the most amped and Euro and ICON have been best case scenarios for a couple runs for the northern folks of the forum.

Makes sense then. Be honest man with the way the winter has been it's great to see for the time being and I'd rather be in the euro camp with this years trends etc bc the GFS has been the euro's biatch. Knocking on wood as we speak so I dont jinx the 0z Euro run. Hopefully GEFS improved because there were some decent hits at 18z.

Not even saying this because I'm wish casting but GFS has been atrocious with next weekend's storm. It has a different solution it seems almost every Zulu run. Now has cutter up into southern Ohio. Wont buy it until Euro and other models show something similar. Euro Canadian and Icon all in a similar camp compared to GFS.

Temp wise it is has been warmest of all models but obv we need to get storm in place first. 540 line pretty much right over ROA at 132 with precip not too far off to my sw.

Lmao just beat me to it. Was typing as you were posting.

FWIW ICON has been an absolute crush job for the 81 corridor back into the NW NC mountains. Granted it is the ICON but it has been known to have scored a coup or two in the past and has the backing of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS (but only because of temp issues). Pretty big signal between models that next weekend someone will be skiing or swimming.

Calling @clskinsfan boy oh boy if that were to verify for 81.

Tbh guys if I get 6" of sleet with the way the season has been compared to 1993, 1996, whatever we want to compare it to wont matter because this will feel just as good imo. Unless of course you guys feel the atmosphere cooks and it will be a rain or snow setup.

What about n/s sw where do we want that to be so it doesn't interfere with ss energy? Looks like 156 has it in sw MN

Going to be super nitpicky and say the western shield would probably be much more expansive. Big time snow track for western portions of the area with a low track over RIC.

This made me spit my fry out of my mouth. Never been so happy to see a partial agreement between euro and GFS. I know you commented earlier about not caring if BOS gets smoked. I agree if I can muster 6-8" I'd never complain again.

Great low track in normal circumstances for the board. Would love to take my chances on that if it came to fruition. Eastern NY wiped off the map lmao. The banding would be crazy verbatim 12z GFS. This season we obv all know to tread very lightly.

6z gfs pops the low right over CHO and then ne from there to a position south of long island. Need the whole flow to pop south some to try and draw in whatever cold air may be available.

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell.

I would never complain again hahahaha.

I saw you in here so I figured I'd make things easier on you hahahaha.

Not trying to be the debbie downer here but I think I'm ready to be reaped. I've tried all year to be positive but it seems like we all hope every 10 days out will be "that" storm to where it ends up being short sleeves and record highs. If I keep living in fantasy land before I know it I'm going to be needing to watch the tropics. This has been nothing short of disastrous. I want to hope that Bob, PSU and everyone else is right in pattern change sooner than later but we are running out of time and quickly. I'm not saying I'm getting my panties in a bunch bc next weekend doesn't look as promising but it's like every 10 days here the pattern has looked much better and then we go back to wtf is happening? I hope I'm proven wrong bc I truly love snow. Done ranting back to weather and tracking!

At least we can go with experience and know that the GFS has the tendency to drive low pressures into the highs and we all know how that normally plays out (gets forced a lot further south and east).

What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west

After the debacle of the GFS being on its own island this winter season continuously showing snowy scenarios and winter weather I have a hard time buying into it. With that said however support from Euro and EPS makes me feel a whole lot better. Time will tell here in the next couple days.