Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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For what it’s worth FV3 looks nothing like the 12z NAM. Much better phasing happening.
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In any event the Nam is COLD. Has snow in northern Georgia and northern South Carolina. All of NC. Some may view this as a decent run but I’m looking for a bigger dog with more phasing in hopes someone gets blasted, even if it’s not me. The way the last couple winters have been beggers can’t be choosers so a 2-4/3-6 event would make many happy on here.
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Nam is trying at hour 69 to go more neutral/negative, as energy on the backside has now caught up but still think it’s a step back for sure. Seems like the models are indicating less phasing and less moisture. Hope it corrects.
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Out to 51 the surface is corresponding with my fears on less phasing and stream interaction. Much less wintry weather on the northern end of things. See where it goes but I don’t like it so far.
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12z Nam at 36 thus far has some changes with s/w energy coming out of the western Rockies. Not wanting to dig as hard and phase with our stj. May have implications downstream as we go forward with qpf distribution. Still early but just something I’m noticing.
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Anyone have 6z Canadian? I heard it was good.
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Canadian will make NC people VERY happy in here. Even more of a positive tilt which keeps it more sheared out and not wound up. Mid levels and surface are way colder compared to the gfs and you get a nice overrunning event setting up.
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This system has a lot that can go wrong with it still. There’s multiple pieces in play diving down from the northern stream. Any mistiming of the features and you’re going to have a weaker sheared out system like some of the runs have been showing us. I wouldn’t focus overly much on the totals currently. Keep an eye on h5.
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Strongly agree with this. It’s like a double edge sword. Positive tilt and less of a phase thermals can get messed up. Negative tilt and s/w swinging in on backside may make for some colder air on the northwest side but then you also run the risk of the system coming further north and west.
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It’s almost like the southern stream is trying to hang back this run ever so slightly and wait for the s/w to catch up. This is really close to going nuke mode.
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Slight delay in stream interaction at 60. Not entirely sure how that will play out as we move on in the run. s/w at 66 diving out of the dakotas looks like it wants to be more aggressive a little earlier. See where that leads us.
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Really not a single major change thru 30. Confluence slightly weaker but that’s about it.
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GFS rolling. Let’s see if it wants to one up the ICON.
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I saw Burger the other day! Doesn’t he live in the Netherlands now?
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I agree man. I do see some folks that have been here for some time though logged in! @Ernest T Bass @franklin NCwx @msuwx @Cheeznado @CaryWx @olafminesaw @strongwxnc and any others that I missed. Nice to see the crew is still around!!
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This is like the only time I’m not sweating over the euro, simply because it struggles with these type of storms and ends up having to play catch up.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Buddy1987 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Is euro still holding energy back in the southwest or just not timing the phasing to our advantage? -
@BornAgain13more I look at this the more this isn’t a pure Miller A. That northern stream energy is really going to have us toe the line. Could royally mess up the mid levels. I’m hoping it will phase some but at the right time to keep things in check.
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Yea GFS def one of the more amped versions of the storm. A little too much at 18z as the run went on.
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Absolutely beautiful cad showing up! Freezing rain all the way down into Atlanta.
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Following up on my post, the 3 major models all have the same type of “look” to them. Now it’s just a matter of how the northern stream interacts with the stj and I don’t think anyone can accurately predict that at the current moment until the models resolve somewhat. We know there are some bad habits and tendencies involved but actually predicting the timing of phasing I think is still reserved until maybe 0z or 12z Wednesday imo.
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Growing cautiously optimistic someone near or north of I-85 minimum is going to get something they can enjoy. Still some finite details to work out but this is usually the type of system the Euro struggles with the most, due to tendencies on holding back energy. Next couple of runs I’m looking for the GFS to show a little earlier phasing and create a big dog!
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What a disappointing set of overnight runs after what the GFS did at 0z.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Buddy1987 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Euro wil come around. Its doing its usual bury energy into the southwest and get stuck. Rule #188 out of the weenie handbook. -
Yea man got like an inch before it flipped so it’s better than nothing for sure. The freezing rain later on is going to be unreal. Maybe the sleet will hold on for awhile because otherwise I fear what we might wake up to.
