Buddy1987

I def like your logics and reasonings behind this!

You really believe tho that HP, if taken at face value, won’t have the primary decay quicker or do you feel initially it is a little misplaced to the west and the solution could be plausible? Pretty stout at 1041-1043. We know GFS is notorious in pile driving the primaries up into WV.

A met can chime in and tell me I’m wrong. If you take the surface map at face value I suppose it is possible for the LP to undercut that high, as its positioning is a little to the west but generally speaking cold dense air is very hard to move or dislodge. 1028-1030HP yea maybe 1042HP another story in my book. Would be easier for me to score a coup up this way but would need some help for most of the forum overall. If I had to take a guess do or die I’d say at this stage primary would decay and die out sooner than what GFS depicts.

GFS notorious in plowing LP’s and moving stout high pressure out of the way. Although plausible unlikely in my opinion.

Looking like 0z gfs def wants to dig more with the s/w into Texas. Progression also faster and better moisture advection and return out to 108. Def looking like it will be amped. Lol driving rain storm for the entire forum as the storm cuts way to the west

GFS is Dr Yes this year, therefore I’m running and taking it based on performance over Euro last several months here.

Man what an absolute mauling on the 12z suite thus far! When do you guys think continuity kicks in by Monday? @CAPE @yoda @psuhoffman

Mauling so far your area north on CMC and GFS. Way too early unfortunately. Models swing so wildly these days there’s really no continuity IMO until at least Monday if I had to guess.

Def trying to keep my expectations tempered here. Good to see continuity from a model standpoint but like I alluded to the other day models have multiple s/w flying around and keying on the final wave now hopefully will be the right call and there will be enough spacing to allow the wave to strengthen.

Man a ton of volatility tho in the 18z gfs. Good grief! Multiple s/w within a couple days of each other.

Crazy looking back at this past Friday getting that 1.5” event. It was dumping here for a little bit. Beggars definitely can’t be choosers at this juncture. Pretty deflating to see Deep South getting snow in TX and LA

Idk man euro hasn’t been itself wrt mid to long range prospects thus far. I will take my chances on most of the globals at least showing something this far out. Just my opinion obviously but I have a really good feeling for this time period.

That band looks to mean business. I’m not sure it can make it this far north but then again I haven’t seen the surface wrt where LP is etc..

Impressive! I’m up Glenvar side of Salem. Just took lunch here. Easily 1.5” looking out. Driveway and concrete starting to cave somewhat. Great little surprise IMO. Models were back and forth this far north.

Dang where is that Catawba?

Crazy because it’s been moderate to heavy snow for several hours. Funny how these things always work out. Def have a solid inch on grass and building.

Man it is absolutely dumping here. Huge fat snowflakes just sticking to everything minus roads. Very pretty.

Latest HRRR a little more aggressive with the push up toward my door step. Disc did mention that some of the models he can view did show earlier the precip shield expanding a little more than what even some of the public hi res models were showing. Will be interesting because my outlook is zilch up here so anything will be a bonus.

Looks like a push of better moisture further north, thus the “warmer” look to it.

Canadian looks much more appropriate with precip field. Low track just outside of Hatteras or right over usually bodes well for I-40 north, with thermals cooperating of course. Hoping for a surprise here but won’t go off into a JI rage either. Would be nice to get some southeasterly flow to enhance moisture with low still to our south and aid in isentropic lift.

Yea not what I was expecting with beginning of 0z runs... drier overall on front end. HRRR looked good and I would say runs of 0z suites would still be of a meaningful purpose. Anything past 12z tomorrow would pretty much completely switch over to Hi-res

Good 3-6” band along the nc/va border. Low looks a little better for tucked in purposes for areas to the north and west. Even gets me into some decent precip this far out this way.

For once I actually really like the looks of the short range hi res models for this one. 3k nam and rgem look to be painting a best case scenario at least 40 north and then possibly being able to get north of 460 in play. Gfs also playing catch up. Canadian has been the best thus far for our direct area. Wasn’t overly thrilled with this at the beginning but nice to see it may be trending in the right direction for a lot of us on here.

I tend to agree. It’s not like we have some mammoth 1046 HP up in Upstate NY. I will just continue to pray the Canadian and the Para GFS are correct. Wouldn’t want to be @Disc in this predicament. Anywhere from dusting to 6” here ouch lol. NC mountains almost a lock to get smoked!

Lol I had escaped to Naples FL for Christmas. I can tell you though we picked up about an inch from my Ring doorbell cam. Radford and Blacksburg ended up with about 4. The pattern has kind of made me stay away here for a little, looking at the GFS with no snow through like 1/12/21