Buddy1987

You’re ahead of me but but 96 hrs HP has gone from 1035 to 1038. Good cold press pushing down from NY State and New England.

Man I was just looking at hr90 and that is one hell of a vort at h5 out in the middle of the country. Feels really good to track one of these big potentials again and not have it be 240 hrs plus away.

@psuhoffman what is the gfs seeing that the euro isn’t or vice versa? Is it strictly just stronger confluence overall or will the western ridge end up dictating how big this storm can get or be? There’s a lot of moving pieces to keep up with. Seems like the HP can cautiously be checked off the needs list. Is the GFS doing it’s typical driving of LP’s too far into a cad type setup or does it actually hold merit in this instance in your opinion?

Well you’re one hell of a contributor to the board and your time and analysis don’t go unnoticed. Thanks for everything now and in the future ahead of time for sure.

I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure.

I don’t pay unfortunately to access some of the Euro products, specifically “off run” hours.

To be honest it has a lot of support in Icon, Canadian and at end of the Nam run it looks more like Euro than it does GFS. GFS always ends up playing catch-up in these types of situations. It’s the last to catch onto cad and normally tries to drive the primary too far into the cad. Something to keep an eye on down the road here. Confluence also a big factor in the northeast. Add Ukmet to that as well

This comma head is just dumb! Idk how this isn’t getting more attention in the forum here but that gulf tap is a dream we haven’t seen come to fruition in some time.

Still snowing past this image. Low south of va/nc border. By far the biggest threat the forum has faced in some time. Ninja’d by bornagain

JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way.

That trend continues at 96. That’s what I’m most interested in at this juncture.

A little better confluence if anything @84

Def a good omen for you guys. I’m already at 6-8” down this way on Icon at 120!

I think for me the biggest takeaway from today comparing GFS vs Euro is both get the low to central Missouri or so but the confluence and HP is very differently modeled. GFS has a 1032 and Euro has a 1035. That is making all the difference with the cold press. Both also have the meso high that @BullCityWx alluded to earlier that really helps enforce things right before game time. This IMO is our best shot at succeeding with something this winter season thus far.

The word impressive doesn’t do it justice. Secondary just more or less rots to its demise. It would snow for hours upon hours up this way.

“The big ones are sniffed out ahead of time” that’s the motto we’re all sticking to today and up until game day!

The 2m map you posted is what makes me feel the best about the setup! Those are so men serious numbers funneling down the apps!

Icon showed a pretty good deform band swinging through as well so there’s some hope for some of us.

Best part I like is the high slides in tandem with the approaching LP and with precipitation arrival down this way 2m temps are in the negative in NY state, signifying the cold air is entrenched. Normally we are all complaining and stressing for the fact that the high is bailing and exiting stage right. That’s def one thing to keep an eye on in future runs.

Other thing that I really like is the fact the high almost slides in tandem verbatim with icon as the LP is moving in toward the area. Recently we’ve seen the HP haul ass to the north and east prior to LP arriving.

Agreed. Most models specifically cad favored models like Canadian had single digits in the northeast, which lets people know the preceding airmass is solid.

That’s a good thing. Would re-enhance the wedge and keep cold air locked in longer.

12z ICON still trying to make something of the Thur system from ROA and then southeast toward the eastern NC coast. Para and GFS also showing it as of 6z. Will see what it shows here shortly.

I can’t help but temper my expectations after this Thursday’s debacle. Mid Atl forum are highlighting the fact that euro is out on an island right now and its simply because there are 4 different s/w flying around and would take a perfect scenario to get the euro to come to fruition. My main concern from my own thoughts is having the fire hose setup too far to our north and missing the main slug of moisture. I hope it doesnt happen but that would be cause for concern or #1

That’s some crazy aggressiveness from the Euro and EPS with the probabilities Weather Will posted. Euro honking big time. Anyone know what mb the HP was on the Euro? That was one thing that really stood out to me with the GFS and CMC. GFS had a 1032 and CMC had a 1038-1039. Major differences would arise naturally being that far off. I’m with Bristow on this one tho I simply can’t get over being screwed royally on the Thur system albeit the Para and GFS still want to give us a decent event down here but I don’t buy it.