Buddy1987

Def a good omen for you guys. I’m already at 6-8” down this way on Icon at 120!

I think for me the biggest takeaway from today comparing GFS vs Euro is both get the low to central Missouri or so but the confluence and HP is very differently modeled. GFS has a 1032 and Euro has a 1035. That is making all the difference with the cold press. Both also have the meso high that @BullCityWx alluded to earlier that really helps enforce things right before game time. This IMO is our best shot at succeeding with something this winter season thus far.

The word impressive doesn’t do it justice. Secondary just more or less rots to its demise. It would snow for hours upon hours up this way.

“The big ones are sniffed out ahead of time” that’s the motto we’re all sticking to today and up until game day!

The 2m map you posted is what makes me feel the best about the setup! Those are so men serious numbers funneling down the apps!

Icon showed a pretty good deform band swinging through as well so there’s some hope for some of us.

Best part I like is the high slides in tandem with the approaching LP and with precipitation arrival down this way 2m temps are in the negative in NY state, signifying the cold air is entrenched. Normally we are all complaining and stressing for the fact that the high is bailing and exiting stage right. That’s def one thing to keep an eye on in future runs.

Other thing that I really like is the fact the high almost slides in tandem verbatim with icon as the LP is moving in toward the area. Recently we’ve seen the HP haul ass to the north and east prior to LP arriving.

Agreed. Most models specifically cad favored models like Canadian had single digits in the northeast, which lets people know the preceding airmass is solid.

That’s a good thing. Would re-enhance the wedge and keep cold air locked in longer.

12z ICON still trying to make something of the Thur system from ROA and then southeast toward the eastern NC coast. Para and GFS also showing it as of 6z. Will see what it shows here shortly.

I can’t help but temper my expectations after this Thursday’s debacle. Mid Atl forum are highlighting the fact that euro is out on an island right now and its simply because there are 4 different s/w flying around and would take a perfect scenario to get the euro to come to fruition. My main concern from my own thoughts is having the fire hose setup too far to our north and missing the main slug of moisture. I hope it doesnt happen but that would be cause for concern or #1

That’s some crazy aggressiveness from the Euro and EPS with the probabilities Weather Will posted. Euro honking big time. Anyone know what mb the HP was on the Euro? That was one thing that really stood out to me with the GFS and CMC. GFS had a 1032 and CMC had a 1038-1039. Major differences would arise naturally being that far off. I’m with Bristow on this one tho I simply can’t get over being screwed royally on the Thur system albeit the Para and GFS still want to give us a decent event down here but I don’t buy it.

Gosh man you’re not kidding. I was so all about it a couple nights ago but the models really have put a sour taste in my mouth. I’d be shocked to even see 2” at this point

Lol the 0z nam was a complete dumpster fire

5h def doesn’t look good IMO tho if you compare it to gfs. Nam has a lot more of a positive tilt although it looks like it’s trying to interact with the tpv some so I’m not sure how that will tie into it. At this point my thoughts kind of have to change here looking at afternoon guidance. Everything hints toward more of a southern solution but giving up strength and energy at the same time. I believe GFS may end up on an island at some point if Euro doesn’t lend some support that way. We used to love to see nam amped if it was gonna be significant or a doozy and I’m not sure if they’ve corrected it since the update happened.

Eh.. if there’s one year it will be this year. There’s a lot of continuity with other models. I get people are chapped because every promising pattern and every storm within 5 days just epically fails but this one is gonna pull through! I’m going Jebman on this one. Fatties ripping and a decent storm north of NC/VA border. Real winners may very well end up being RIC and eastern NC

Without rubbing salt in the wound here are we out of the woods for wild swings down this way or do you guys feel like it could still trend even more south because of the tpv?

This point I’d go 3-6/4-8 type deal for my area. 2-4 for down your way. Agree?

Progression of system seems to have really sped up between 72-78 based on 5h and surface depiction.

Synoptically nam and gfs look relatively similar on 5h with s/w but differ with tpv. Gfs has tpv more north and east of 12z nam placement. Nam looks more like ukmet and euro at the surface so there’s that too I.e more south, weaker strung out low

Ralph where do you feel heaviest snow swath sets up?

I agree! I think dynamics alone as you get into north central and northeastern NC could really surprise someone as bombogenesis takes place. Gonna be one hell of a ccb that develops.

Guys by no means am I disrespecting eyewalls thoughts because he knows a hell of a lot more than I do but same time I truly believe he was referencing the majority of NC but again premature IMO to rule out Forsyth county, Surry etc..

I think it’s premature to say NC in general. CLT and RDU I would agree but north of 40 I don’t believe so. That TPV is still flying all over the place on the models.That being said I’m not sure as to how many people in the forum actually live along or north of 40. I feel like I’m out on an island sometimes haha