Nam out to 48 already. Going back toward the global models regarding earlier phasing. Looks more like it’s 6z run compared to 12z. Should help with precip on north side of storm.
Ugh.. was really hoping euro was going to come around. Not good to see that. For what it’s worth, euro actually came around to the gfs last storm and compromised. Hopefully we can get that to happen again.
Ukie sucked last storm. Was the furthest south than any other model. I wouldn’t overly stress about it. Euro shows this then maybe we can start to scratch our heads.
The one thing I’ll say I like A LOT about 12Z thus far is precipitation expansion on the northwest side of the storm minus the NAM’s depiction. Feel like that bodes well as we get closer to the event.
We took one for the team the other night so you all could get fire hosed. My road looks like I live in northwest Russia right now. Would like some nice powder.
We just went thru one hell of a sleet and ice storm here the other night. While it’s nice to look at it was a pain in the rear end to clean up before Siberia temperatures came in last night I love winter weather so I can totally understand where you’re coming from.
Looking at 78 gets me so excited to think what the radar will look like as plentiful moisture is streaming up from the south/southwest. Love when I click on the Greenville or Knoxville radars and just see a wall of precip heading in!
Negligible thru 48 as well. Slight less digging by Rockies s/w but stj also a little further southwest so I would call that offsetting. Confluence still better up top over the northeast pushing down into the Mid Atlantic.
Looks like Nam may have been on an island thus far. Icon also indicates more phasing earlier on and the surface is responding accordingly by hr 54 over northern OK and AR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3-hires®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2025010712&fh=60
End of the FV3 run was definitely way more amped. Bigger qpf bomb developing. Better backside phasing compared to NAM.