Buddy1987

12z ICON hr 78 1035 HP stronger closed primary 994 southern KS/OK border. Further north than 6z counterpart.

Yea Disc and I are same area basically when you see him post. We’re definitely southwestern most portion of the forum.

I will try to post pics of tomorrow’s event down here. Just had WWA issued for 2-4”. With this particular system it’s worth noting the models ended up trending toward the GFS solution. Something to keep in mind. Nam was bone dry and now has a decent slug of moisture coming through. GFS the snowiest.

120 hr 24 hr snowfall map still looks solid for 0z Ukie. Solid 5-10” deal to the naked eye

Wow!! @BIG FROSTY been awhile man. Glad to see you on here! Getting revved up for the “epic ness” that’s about to occur next several days.

Lmfao there’s a meaningful trend in the GFS tonight and we got JI saying 0-3 LOL

Yea the evolution of the entire system for the weekend is wonky on the GFS. Is it wrong? Not necessarily. Does it have tendencies and known biases? Absolutely. It’s the warmest of the models right now. Between Canadian and GFS, GFS is off by a good 5mb with the high pressure. So we’re talking a 1032 vs 1037 mb hp. Big time difference. Other factor to weigh is the GFS has a very strong vort like Euro middle of the country. Problem is GFS opens up and sends a strung out weak discombobulated mess eastward while the Euro continues to keep its strength. That would have big impacts downstream.

12z at 132 had 1006 slp over southern IN for reference. HP at 1038.

The GFS was hot garbage. Para looked ok for decent thump to dry slot. It’s pretty much most guidance against gfs so there’s that but then a lot of us are actually rooting for the gfs for Thursday’s system so who knows.

Para looks a bit colder. Heavy snow breaking out at 108 sw va and moving toward the dc crew.

That’s biggest takeaway for me thus far. GFS by far the warmest model out of all the guidance.

Primary at 120 further to the west northwest of 18z location. Difference of basically having it be in central KY vs southern/southeastern IN. Noticeable shift tho IMO.

Building off this the Icon is coming in even colder than 18z run. HP at 96 goes from 1035 to 1038. Big time cold press funneling down out of New England. @102 light snows breaking out over NC mountains. SLP over SW MO. 1037 HP. This looks to start the 0z runs off on the right foot.

You’re ahead of me but but 96 hrs HP has gone from 1035 to 1038. Good cold press pushing down from NY State and New England.

Man I was just looking at hr90 and that is one hell of a vort at h5 out in the middle of the country. Feels really good to track one of these big potentials again and not have it be 240 hrs plus away.

@psuhoffman what is the gfs seeing that the euro isn’t or vice versa? Is it strictly just stronger confluence overall or will the western ridge end up dictating how big this storm can get or be? There’s a lot of moving pieces to keep up with. Seems like the HP can cautiously be checked off the needs list. Is the GFS doing it’s typical driving of LP’s too far into a cad type setup or does it actually hold merit in this instance in your opinion?

Well you’re one hell of a contributor to the board and your time and analysis don’t go unnoticed. Thanks for everything now and in the future ahead of time for sure.

I know you’re a realist and always will be and base your emotions off science. I’m just a little surprised how pessimistic you are overall. I still think you get in on the action for sure.

I don’t pay unfortunately to access some of the Euro products, specifically “off run” hours.

To be honest it has a lot of support in Icon, Canadian and at end of the Nam run it looks more like Euro than it does GFS. GFS always ends up playing catch-up in these types of situations. It’s the last to catch onto cad and normally tries to drive the primary too far into the cad. Something to keep an eye on down the road here. Confluence also a big factor in the northeast. Add Ukmet to that as well

This comma head is just dumb! Idk how this isn’t getting more attention in the forum here but that gulf tap is a dream we haven’t seen come to fruition in some time.

Still snowing past this image. Low south of va/nc border. By far the biggest threat the forum has faced in some time. Ninja’d by bornagain

JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way.

That trend continues at 96. That’s what I’m most interested in at this juncture.

A little better confluence if anything @84