Buddy1987

12z gfs also coming in colder. You can see the dip in the isobars to the southwest with precip incoming and over the area. Bend hand toward southwestern SC.

I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario.

Looking at Canadian RDPS that 12z run is damn cold! Implies a good amount of freezing rain for the triangle. It all comes to how far the cold air can bleed down.

That’s something I’ve really been watching. It doesn’t have a designated snow vs ice vs rain delineation built in but it def is normally a “warmer” model. Something to keep an eye on. It is bone chilling outside right now so it’s gotta at least lay some good groundwork or preceding conditions for this storm for some of us.

https://imgur.com/2eWCrQg @BornAgain13 6z Euro is a big hit down here. GFS is a juice bomb. Shows 1.92” of qpf for ROA

Did the GFS take over for the Nam lmao!! 1.92” jackpot over this way. If anything GFS has been a juice bomb.

Yea that’s what I was alluding to. 0z CMC still looks might impressive with WAA thump

Does anyone know what the RGEM’s bias is? I thought it generally ran a little cold if anything but I don’t recall it being a southern outlier. Big difference on 0z run. Way south!

If anything GFS is uber wet! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment if some of this falls as freezing rain for you could be problems.

The thing with it as well though is the system is being impinged on by confluence in New England. These are steps we all def want to see for wintry weather. We will still get the thump but it will help to where the mid levels won’t get flooded with warmth. Welcome btw!

Yea I agree here. I think there is enough of a noticeable thing here to where I continue to see small baby steps toward the Euro. Primary is further west/northwest between hrs 60-72. I think the trend is a good one. It def hasn’t gone backwards at the minimum. The thermals suck with the model. Most know this already. Synoptics are key!

Give it time my man! There is a noticeable shift. It’s just such incremental baby steps that it’s annoying as sh*t it wants to transfer a bit quicker as well this go around and never gets the primary into OH now. This is out at 72.

GFS still struggling with thermals on 0z runs. With Synoptics however it has really trended toward the euro this run. I’m not sure it will really be able to correct itself in the thermal department but with the primary SLP it is not somewhat more west/northwest of where it was at 18z.

Grit what’s your gut tell you based off experience? Does the primary make it as far east ala GFS camp or do you feel like a Euro/Ukie and to an extent CMC win out?

I agree with @wncsnow as well. Gonna have some nice lift and ring out some moisture with this one. We will also have hopefully timed the cold air to the best of our abilities before the fire hose shuts off so to speak.

Not really known for its cad by any means lol but face value it does look colder than its 18z counterpart.

RDPS implies a large wedge down toward the triangle. Looked at 2m temps and they are borderline down that way around 32-33 but with that wedge could easily trend toward ice. Sleet line is up toward Bornagain but overall a nice run to have it spit out some wintry weather.

Icon at 60

Icon is a good thump at hr 60 for nc/va border north. Much more in line with global models. American vs European Rocky vs Drago Icon has been surprisingly rock solid itself.

Great example would be this most recent system we had last night. Nam was paltry, dry and didn’t even have a beat on anything until about 24 hours before and then came around to other guidance.

Is this plausible or would you consider it be an outlier from a knowledge standpoint?

Unless guidance does a complete 180 I take this run with a grain of salt. Hey maybe it’s right but I would be willing to wager. Nam has become quite a garbage model as of late IMO

Not because it’s not to my liking but it’s the 60hr Nam. Take it with caution. Euro has more or less been in lock step with the overall Synoptics and placement of primary.

Good predecessor to a solid storm. Large spread in temp vs dews. Will be tracking that Saturday night along with cloud cover

I have tried hard to not jinx or have some wild crazy swing but every major model guidance has a solid event for sw va. Ensembles and control runs are all in the same ballpark. I would def say upper end of things here is 8-12”. WAA Miller B thumps usually treat us decent out this way. Sneaky warm layer can intrude at times with some sleet but with south trend and models trending colder def helps us out down this way. I think if most can score a coup of 6-10” almost forum wide that would be a huge morale boost and a psychological pickup. Been 3 years since I’ve had a legitimate pick up the shovel and move snow event. We ended up with an inch last night and it didn’t melt at all today so it’s nice to see something on the ground.