Buddy1987

GFS still struggling with thermals on 0z runs. With Synoptics however it has really trended toward the euro this run. I’m not sure it will really be able to correct itself in the thermal department but with the primary SLP it is not somewhat more west/northwest of where it was at 18z.

Grit what’s your gut tell you based off experience? Does the primary make it as far east ala GFS camp or do you feel like a Euro/Ukie and to an extent CMC win out?

I agree with @wncsnow as well. Gonna have some nice lift and ring out some moisture with this one. We will also have hopefully timed the cold air to the best of our abilities before the fire hose shuts off so to speak.

Not really known for its cad by any means lol but face value it does look colder than its 18z counterpart.

RDPS implies a large wedge down toward the triangle. Looked at 2m temps and they are borderline down that way around 32-33 but with that wedge could easily trend toward ice. Sleet line is up toward Bornagain but overall a nice run to have it spit out some wintry weather.

Icon at 60

Icon is a good thump at hr 60 for nc/va border north. Much more in line with global models. American vs European Rocky vs Drago Icon has been surprisingly rock solid itself.

Great example would be this most recent system we had last night. Nam was paltry, dry and didn’t even have a beat on anything until about 24 hours before and then came around to other guidance.

Is this plausible or would you consider it be an outlier from a knowledge standpoint?

Unless guidance does a complete 180 I take this run with a grain of salt. Hey maybe it’s right but I would be willing to wager. Nam has become quite a garbage model as of late IMO

Not because it’s not to my liking but it’s the 60hr Nam. Take it with caution. Euro has more or less been in lock step with the overall Synoptics and placement of primary.

Good predecessor to a solid storm. Large spread in temp vs dews. Will be tracking that Saturday night along with cloud cover

I have tried hard to not jinx or have some wild crazy swing but every major model guidance has a solid event for sw va. Ensembles and control runs are all in the same ballpark. I would def say upper end of things here is 8-12”. WAA Miller B thumps usually treat us decent out this way. Sneaky warm layer can intrude at times with some sleet but with south trend and models trending colder def helps us out down this way. I think if most can score a coup of 6-10” almost forum wide that would be a huge morale boost and a psychological pickup. Been 3 years since I’ve had a legitimate pick up the shovel and move snow event. We ended up with an inch last night and it didn’t melt at all today so it’s nice to see something on the ground.

DT is

@ILMRoss I see you are on. Have you really dissected anything or overly looked into what 40 north looks like for this one?

Looking like a general consensus at this stage that most major model guidance wants to bring in the WAA thump into western and central VA. I could def see you getting a couple inches but then mix before dry slot moves in.

Even up here we only got about 1/2-1” on the ground albeit it didn’t melt at all today and now it feels like the North Pole outside so nice to try and keep some around until Sunday.

Have you been tracking Euro and Ukie for your area? What are they showing? I’ve been so focused on mine I haven’t really looked beyond it. I think those models are in the cat bird seat with Canadian in portraying something very similar overall. I’ve also been on MA forum because there’s some really good meteorologists floating through there right now getting very good analysis.

Yet some people are saying the Euro is trending toward gfs and vice versa... @BornAgain13 my question is and I get we’re still 3 days out and you may want to play it conservative but almost every model I’ve seen or viewed has 9” or more of snow for ROA. Even the ensembles are at least 6-7” plus yet just as of this morning we had “snow showers” in our forecast”

Awesome! Really appreciate you taking the time to always answer questions here.

I saw H20 ask some pointed questions regarding what could go wrong but IMO that’s more so to my north and east. Almost every major model has us easily 6+” down this way. I actually had same question with what could alter things down this way, as the secondary is going to form too far to my north and east. Do I want the primary to get close or do I want it to stay in IL or IN before the dry slot works in to maximize snow potential here?

Hr 90 ground zero ROA to CHO and still doing work up into the main forum.

@clskinsfan @LP08 @leesburg 04 @CAPE @BristowWx I’m ready to go ahead and push my chips all in and close out my hand. I would be way too greedy otherwise to not do so down this way.

I agree as the run progressed past hr 90 the primary gets into a position similar to the GFS (Ohio). It’s a Miller B where we all would hope to cash in on front end thump as a big dry slot pushes through.

Hr 90 looking more Euroish with primary in central MO 1000mb confluence slightly better with bottom portion pushing through CT. 1036mb HP