Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Wow big overachiever from first band down your way!
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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979
Buddy1987 replied to Bob Chill's topic in Mid Atlantic
Southeastern forum reporting that band traversing into VA at the moment means business. Hope that’s a good omen for things to come for everyone in the forum here! -
@wncsnow happy for you man! Glad you at least got something out of this and it overperformed!
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Uh oh what are you feeling overall? I think RGEM is way too cold personally. Also gives DC north 30-40” lol.
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@BornAgain13 RGEM is damn cold for you and would imply all snow.
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You are actually just south of me. Bornagain I believe is closer to like Stuart area. I’m up in Salem and my brother in law lives in Boones Mill. Should get some nice precip snd rates out of this. Have fun with it!
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12z nam shifted a good bit southeast with SLP and associated WAA. Faster onset of precip as well. Could very well help areas that are going to be borderline
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Man you ain’t kidding! 18.5/14.5 outside. Laying the groundwork! I will say first “fears” are present in my mind wrt seeing some of the models coming in drier with qpf distribution but overall with WSW of 4-8” for my county can’t complain. I’m going to be watching the temp today to see how warm we get. Forecasted high of 40.
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Hmm.. that’s interesting..
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Ukie looks good! @BornAgain13 hopefully you can cash in before flipping.
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That meso high that is showing up on some of the models is reinforcing the low level cold air. That needs to be watched closely for areas that are on the fence or are borderline upon start time.
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Dang that is a big difference hasn’t even cracked 30 yet here
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I feel good!! I talked with Disc last night about it. He seemed to feel pretty good as well. We are always worried about some sneaky warm layer but based on most guidance we remain all snow until precip is basically getting ready to shut off and we get dryslotted. I would feel good saying 8-12” for ROA right now.
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12z gfs also coming in colder. You can see the dip in the isobars to the southwest with precip incoming and over the area. Bend hand toward southwestern SC.
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I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario.
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Looking at Canadian RDPS that 12z run is damn cold! Implies a good amount of freezing rain for the triangle. It all comes to how far the cold air can bleed down.
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That’s something I’ve really been watching. It doesn’t have a designated snow vs ice vs rain delineation built in but it def is normally a “warmer” model. Something to keep an eye on. It is bone chilling outside right now so it’s gotta at least lay some good groundwork or preceding conditions for this storm for some of us.
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https://imgur.com/2eWCrQg @BornAgain13 6z Euro is a big hit down here. GFS is a juice bomb. Shows 1.92” of qpf for ROA
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Did the GFS take over for the Nam lmao!! 1.92” jackpot over this way. If anything GFS has been a juice bomb.
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Yea that’s what I was alluding to. 0z CMC still looks might impressive with WAA thump
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Does anyone know what the RGEM’s bias is? I thought it generally ran a little cold if anything but I don’t recall it being a southern outlier. Big difference on 0z run. Way south!
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If anything GFS is uber wet! @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment if some of this falls as freezing rain for you could be problems.
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The thing with it as well though is the system is being impinged on by confluence in New England. These are steps we all def want to see for wintry weather. We will still get the thump but it will help to where the mid levels won’t get flooded with warmth. Welcome btw!
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Yea I agree here. I think there is enough of a noticeable thing here to where I continue to see small baby steps toward the Euro. Primary is further west/northwest between hrs 60-72. I think the trend is a good one. It def hasn’t gone backwards at the minimum. The thermals suck with the model. Most know this already. Synoptics are key!
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Give it time my man! There is a noticeable shift. It’s just such incremental baby steps that it’s annoying as sh*t it wants to transfer a bit quicker as well this go around and never gets the primary into OH now. This is out at 72.
