Buddy1987

Hr 28-33 redeemed itself up here anyway. @BornAgain13 you are literally either puking fatties or on the rain/snow line.

Another red flag for me as of recent is the nams precip output. Tends to get drier prior to game time then tries to readjust at the last moment. That is clearly evident with the precip shield. Waiting to compare 3k to 12k.

Looking at 5h confluence over northern New England is stronger for sure but in general our s/w is flatter. Curious to see where it goes from here.

So far Nam at 22 is less amped compared to 18z ninja’d by burrel

I really feel like a lot of folks are putting way too much weight on the Nam runs. Go with the general consensus of globals and blend the short range models. The storm is not cutting to Cincinnati snd the SREF’s are out of date these days. I’m equally as excited for the 00z runs but logics and sound reasoning always win. Not calling you out by any means but just in general highlighting using models but also using physics and general knowledge of our areas is the key!

Was discussing in SE forum we need a name for the Icon when we are about to get lit up. Equivalency of Nam with Nam’d or Nam’ing. Someone had voted for EYE Con’d. Icon IMO has killed it thus far.

I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC

@Disc or anyone for that matter. I would love to get a sounding when the fgen at 700 is over southern VA. That band will make up for borderline 850s mark my words. Don’t give up yet @BornAgain13 Nam notorious for doing this.

Now show the real expected (1/10 chance) that’s what I’m hanging my hat on. I’m all in for this one. Dynamics ftw

It’s so uniform with its precip output. It is nice to have short range models that have the ability to sniff out deform band etc.

Funny bc I’ve been busy at work this morning and just popped on to check it out but he actually tagged me in this. Meatball sized aggregates would just be pouring down. The lift and fgen on that is just dumb. Hourly rates would be worth me setting an alarm clock.

Kind of what I alluded to last night where I thought the storm still had the ability to amp and or phase some more. Better potential for BOOM factor but also could take some out of the game.

The lift out of this alone would put crazy hourly rates down. Meatball aggregates just covering everything. You love to see this closer to game time. The fine details of the short range models picking up on enhanced banding structures. For me man these are the best setups for RNK office because they spring up and just demolish more often than not. Temps are borderline albeit I’m assuming wet bulb will benefit us.

@BIG FROSTY ALERT! You got GFS’d!

Morning fellas. Not gonna lie was nervous to wake up and check the overnight stuff. Was fearing a disaster with some weak pos on euro or 6z trending the wrong way. Pleasant surprise to see models converging on a nice setup for a good portion of the forum rather than just extreme nw areas. Here’s to a good day of model runs and winter storm watches with the afternoon package!

Idk if you consider it a good or bad thing but I don’t think this thing is done trending yet. I believe it ends up willing it’s way more north and west. I have a gut feeling the n/s interaction will cause the storm to be amped some.

I’m thinking at this point solid 3-6/4-8 would be best first guess for our areas. Looks like everything has trended just a tad southeast which obv helps you out in marginal temp situations. If that southern stream wave is a little stronger and the northern wave can race out in front somewhat this thing could def negatively tilt some and become more amped. As of right now tho 0z doesn’t seem to be going that way although timing could easily change on the 6z models.

I can see icon gets you for .75” qpf total for your area so if you take 10:1 your looking at 6-8” on that specific model as well.

5h and SLP would indicate to me as well the surface would look even better. Just a beat down for 6-12hrs. Complete Elmer’s glue paste job

Oh there’s no doubt it runs way too cold. I think it was up to 8 degrees too cold last storm up this way.

We’re gonna have to make up a name like we do for the Nam with icon. Can’t say nam’ing incoming but the icon once again looks juicy at 48.

Not live or die but to some extent the RGEM is somewhat of a red flag for me because it’s a pretty good indicator what we’re gonna see out of the cmc. I will say tho as of late Nam has been running dry so for it to be amped and wet leads me to believe gfs will follow suit. Beyond that would be really nice for the para to wake up from its all day nap lol.

Ok now I see. It’s a much lighter event and doesn’t have the fireworks like nam and gfs. Battle of the models continue. I fully expect gfs to have some crazy juiced run. Just that gut feel here.

I’m still at hr24

I saw someone post in southeast forum that it’s more south and east of 18z but I can only access out until hr24