Buddy1987
-
Posts
4,178 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Buddy1987
-
The lift out of this alone would put crazy hourly rates down. Meatball aggregates just covering everything. You love to see this closer to game time. The fine details of the short range models picking up on enhanced banding structures. For me man these are the best setups for RNK office because they spring up and just demolish more often than not. Temps are borderline albeit I’m assuming wet bulb will benefit us.
-
@BIG FROSTY ALERT! You got GFS’d!
-
Morning fellas. Not gonna lie was nervous to wake up and check the overnight stuff. Was fearing a disaster with some weak pos on euro or 6z trending the wrong way. Pleasant surprise to see models converging on a nice setup for a good portion of the forum rather than just extreme nw areas. Here’s to a good day of model runs and winter storm watches with the afternoon package!
-
Idk if you consider it a good or bad thing but I don’t think this thing is done trending yet. I believe it ends up willing it’s way more north and west. I have a gut feeling the n/s interaction will cause the storm to be amped some.
-
I’m thinking at this point solid 3-6/4-8 would be best first guess for our areas. Looks like everything has trended just a tad southeast which obv helps you out in marginal temp situations. If that southern stream wave is a little stronger and the northern wave can race out in front somewhat this thing could def negatively tilt some and become more amped. As of right now tho 0z doesn’t seem to be going that way although timing could easily change on the 6z models.
-
I can see icon gets you for .75” qpf total for your area so if you take 10:1 your looking at 6-8” on that specific model as well.
-
5h and SLP would indicate to me as well the surface would look even better. Just a beat down for 6-12hrs. Complete Elmer’s glue paste job
-
Oh there’s no doubt it runs way too cold. I think it was up to 8 degrees too cold last storm up this way.
-
We’re gonna have to make up a name like we do for the Nam with icon. Can’t say nam’ing incoming but the icon once again looks juicy at 48.
-
Not live or die but to some extent the RGEM is somewhat of a red flag for me because it’s a pretty good indicator what we’re gonna see out of the cmc. I will say tho as of late Nam has been running dry so for it to be amped and wet leads me to believe gfs will follow suit. Beyond that would be really nice for the para to wake up from its all day nap lol.
-
Ok now I see. It’s a much lighter event and doesn’t have the fireworks like nam and gfs. Battle of the models continue. I fully expect gfs to have some crazy juiced run. Just that gut feel here.
-
I’m still at hr24
-
I saw someone post in southeast forum that it’s more south and east of 18z but I can only access out until hr24
-
Icon is def late. Normally 945ish is initiation. RGEM out to 24hrs. That’s gonna be a big indicator for me what we have going on or at least to an extent because both it and CMC were further south and east at 12/18z
-
Still have no room to complain down this way but can obv see why DC crew would be disappointed. Precip shield is more consolidated at 51 and 54.
-
I thought the same. Moisture trajectory and nw extent seemed limited IMO.
-
I’m not gonna lie back in the day you saw the SREF make a move you knew the NAM or ETA for that matter was getting ready to give us a bomb or a dud.
-
@BullCityWx is there anything stopping this storm from amping more vs being suppressed? I get the northern stream interaction but anything up top?
-
I will def give you that and agree to it. In all reality last Sunday the Euro showed a very good storm for us come this Sunday, lost it and now is def trending toward the other guidance.
-
Euro def the most southeast of guidance. Has been very topsy turvy as of late. Having a hard time really entrusting in it regardless of what my backyard sees. All models have made a significant jump albeit CMC is leaning more toward the camp of the Euro. Interesting to see what ensembles show but we’re almost at the time of the op being the predominant choice to view.
-
Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.
-
Safe to assume guys all the players are on the field or within RAOB sites to give a more definitive picture or at least make sense of the major shifts that have occurred this afternoon or evening?
-
Assuming all the players are on the field now or at least within RAOB to where it’s being sampled correctly? Thus the shift that we’ve seen this afternoon going into happy hour?
-
Gfs para looks to be a juice bomb at 60 getting ready to turn nw as well @66 and @72 @BornAgain13 might not want to look could give you a heart attack. Just an absolute mauling. Very Nam’ish solid 6-10” event for NC mountains/southern va. Even some accumulation back into the NW triad. Haven’t looked at 850s or upstairs to see if it’s all snow.
-
Placement of the SLP tho at 72 on gfs looks a little wonky compared to 6z. 6z much closer to coastline but precip panels look even more NW than previous run.
