Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Could see this coming earlier on. Big change upstairs. See if it’s onto something or on crack like it tends to be sometimes.
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Nam trying to go more neutral than positive at 21. Wow.. pretty significant changes at 26. I would imagine we will see precip adjust a good bit north if this continues. Wonder if this helps to tap the gulf some as well. Phasing is def improved.
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GFS has been ROCK SOLID
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Nam 3k and FV3 are colder than the Nam 12k for NC. That’s a good thing.
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@BornAgain13 Nam and GFS still got us in the game.
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Nam actually looks a bit better with moisture on the north side, as well as with the backside energy. See if it does anything..
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About the only thing I’m hanging my hat on is from what I remember in the past and that is GFS used to school Euro in northern stream systems. About the only thing you can hope for. Other portion of the hope side of things is I actually thought the GFS improved some on the orientation of the trough axis and was much closer to going neutral. That happens we def have a fighters chance.
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Yea I’m about to track from afar. Gfs given me 6” or more 3 consecutive runs but it’s literally the only one doing so. Unless Euro gets onboard kinda hard to get overly invested in 1-2” possibly.
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Quite a significant difference with backside energy at 48. Confluence also good bit weaker comparing it to Icon same time frame.
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There hasn’t been a truer statement spoken hahaha. You all are majorly winning too.
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Confluence good bit stronger on Icon at 30. Good bit different as well evolution wise comparing it to the Nam thus far.
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FV3 has a much better precip shield at the end of its run comparing it to 0z NAM.
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What an unlikely solution to kickstart 0z runs. Just a ton of different things happening upstairs. I’m not even sure there’s a model that comes close to portraying 0z nam.
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@wncsnowthats def what it is man. Trough axis orientation at 60 is def westward and confluence isn’t as strong resulting in better waa to the north. You can see it built up more over western KY and MO
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Odd part is moisture is a good bit north of 18z. Confluence in the northeast also not as great this go around. The back end energy seems to want to affect the storm this go around. A lot of different moving parts for sure here. One thing I see and notice now is the energy up on the Dakota/Canada border seems to be taller and a tad more displaced westward, which I guess in theory would affect the moisture transport, along with a tick less confluence up north.
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Not nearly as much phasing.
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Wow! I feel like for once this is going the right way for I-40, I-20 and I-85. Wrong way for north of 40 and up 81.
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Anyone got the 0z SREF’s? Used to be a good precursor as to what the Nam was going to do.
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My lord couldn’t imagine it would be worse than the 18z control. That was brutal for our area.
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Euro looks like a hott bag of a**! Need that to stop immediately.
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18z GFS is a beat down for WNC foothills/mountains and up into SVA.
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Wanted to get an idea why or how 18z Nam and GFS are differing with evolution etc. Found that by hour 36 the orientation of the energy out west is taller. This is what allowed the system to gain some latitude with Nam at 18z. GFS thus far is flatter. We will see how it translates down stream.
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THIS!!! On Sunday I was at 36 degrees with a 4 dew point. Once snow became moderate my temp dropped down to 28. Amazing what evap cooling can do.
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Thing of beauty for many!!
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2025010718&fh=54 Nam looks ready to go ape sh*t at 60!
