Buddy1987

@Bob ChillWAA for the win still down here at 18z.

Big run coming! Gonna inject the positive juju into this thread!

This is a great call out because a lot of our “bigger” snows just have a wall of heaven that advects in from the west southwest. Some of the best pre event radars you can see as bright yellows come in from Knoxville. We are due.. I will say that to keep positive.

I won’t believe it until we’re about 24-36hrs from this thing. Still got too much time for things to go horribly wrong, ala a Great Lakes low popping out of the clear blue sky, southern stream de-amplifying beyond belief, mega warm nose appearing, etc.. (yes we’ve been burned too many times).

I’m kind of in awe people are proclaiming it’s over and it wasn’t good. We are under 100 hours and there are multiple models showing a MECS for a large portion of the forum. Cmon folks snap out of it. We would’ve given our left arm for something even close to this a couple years in a row prior to this year.

HOLY F’N SH*T!!!! LFGGGGG

Fooking call it big dawg!

The ridge out west being taller and more Euro like has me excited early on. I’m so waiting on a “FOLKS” to drop.

Isn’t there something we’ve all discussed in the past where the GFS struggles with these types of systems and then the Euro struggles with systems originating out of the southwest because of tendency to hold back energy?

The NAM def looks more toward a Euro camp than it does the GFS.

If this thing can give me and Bob Chill 6” you guys can have whatever you want. It has been FOREVER since we’ve had a straight up snow event, without any fear of mixing etc..

31 and moderate snow. Elevated surfaces getting covered.

30/18 here. 0z NAM just dropped 1.29” of freezing rain by the end of its run here

30/18

LOL!! NAM with 1.29” of freezing rain here end of it’s run.

33/17 here now. Lower than I thought thus far. Expecting a 2-5 or 3-6 ordeal before flip to sleet and freezing rain. As some have alluded to some of the freezing rain totals are prolific. Nam has beefed them up. Gfs and Canadian had over an inch up this way @BornAgain13even half of that would be insane! I’ve seen between .75-1.00 when I was a kid growing up in CT and it sounded like a shotgun going off in the woods all night with trees snapping like twigs. Lost power for well over a week. Can’t ever forget something like that.

Temp really starting to bottom out. Down to 33/17. Love it!

37/17 nice to see temps dropping off as clear skies allow for radiational cooling.

42/16 near Roanoke VA.

GFS has been steady as she goes for like the last 747 runs of this storm. Question is can we actually believe it? I feel like other guidance really isn’t as aggressive.

Thanks for the maps Will! Appreciate it as always

GFS ENS agree with OP. ROA-CHO jack. @clskinsfan7.1” up you’re way. Feel like that’ll make you beyond happy.

Gotta say overall the GFS has been unbelievably rock solid with this for run after run for quite some time.

Any met or long time lurker ( @clskinsfan @nj2va @CAPE) want to give me their best shot as to what they think shakes down this way in SW VA? We are so close on the line down here between a heavy snow or heavy ice scenario I’m having a hard time. How out on an island do you think GFS is compared to other guidance?

@BornAgain13the 6z gfs would be a cataclysmic ice storm. Those totals are absolutely insane.