Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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12Z NAM with a 1028 Meso High situated nicely over the IN/OH border. I'm going to be monitoring that to see if it can make a difference as precip nears the areas of concern for wintry weather. So far at 36 precip looks a little delayed compared to 6z. That tiny high really books it next couple frames and dews are progged to be a couple degrees warmer from last run. This is going the wrong way.
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Asheville at 8.5” with Kuchera method. Roanoke 7.4. Pretty much entire spine of western NC is 4-8” verbatim with Kuchera on GFS. @BornAgain132-4” type of event down your way.
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54 hrs mainly has any type of wintry precip confined to mountain areas of far northwestern NC and then into southern Virginia. nvm spoke too soon hr 60 majority of WNC getting smoked..
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You have any idea how it’s verification scores match up to other low level cold models? I’m not sure I’ve ever seen someone in here touch on it. It’s definitely the warmest. I’d also like to see RGEM and Canadian cool down somewhat. They’ve been running warmer than other guidance as well.
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Let’s us all know it still has a bit of time until it gets more into its wheelhouse. Very positive trends though.
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NAM has really sped things up this go around. HR 54 has the low about to go over MYR. 18z HR 60 has it over SAV still.
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Precip a little bit quicker to get into WNC at 51.
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HR 39 there is a bit better of a push with 2m dew points. Another subtle but very important difference. Very nice to see northern most Georgia with a dew of 14 at hr45. Encouraging.
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Oddly enough by hr 28 Nam is much drier over MS/AL. Curious to see what happens closer to our areas.
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HR 19 you can see very subtle differences with the base of the trough leading to this imo.
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I would focus on thermals and not so much synoptics. Someone had mentioned the precip just disappeared at hrs 69-72 and I agree it looks wonky.
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NAM Freezing Rain Totals:
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Is that the end of the run or did it keep going? Pretty paltry numbers if so for the northern crew
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That I can't deny there. Feel like overall i'm in a spot that stands the best chance but time will tell as we get closer.
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That is an exponential increase from previous runs. Nice to see that at least as we get closer to game time. Canadian thermals worry me however, because normally they tend to run somewhat colder. Now the question is does the Canadian Ensembles disagree with the OP there..
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I will believe this sh*t when I see it down this way falling and on the ground. Anything to do with 850s and having to wet bulb just screams don't get invested.
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I will believe it when I see it. Wondering how pronounced the warm nose is at 700?
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This! That’s a hell of a deform band that traverses the favored areas. Someone’s gonna get nailed good by that.
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Yea agree with this as well. Biggest issue at onset will of course be 850s along with the ability to wet bulb down, and unfortunately even as far north as I am in the forum, we don't normally do wet bulb too well. I do love the fact though the ULL gives someone a chance to deform like crazy.
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Euro that bad overnight?
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Temps are soooo borderline. This is going to be very close. Moisture is there. Main problem is there’s no antecedent conditions or any major source or supplier of cold air really anywhere around us other than what that ULL can create.
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0z GFS looks like it’s about to get good at hr 66. Moisture primed 0z GFS looks like some of its previous runs prior to 18z. Copious amounts of moisture. A matter now of whether western NC can dynamically cool enough.
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Take the ICON as you may, but 0Z def trended in favor of Western NC and SW VA for a period of heavy snow, esp compared to 18z. Model trends look good starting the night off here.
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End of the run looks to be a big sleet storm for majority, although I wonder how deep the warm nose would be because of wind direction and borderline surface temps. Feel like it would be more of a rain/snow scenario however I may be wrong on this too because i'm not going to go too deep into a sounding on the 84 NAM lol.
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@75 Precip delayed some compared to 18z at 81. One thing I do like is that meso high is placed in a good position.
