Buddy1987

Agreed man. HRRR looks great up this way as well.

@BornAgain13sunday looking more and more interesting as we close in here!

Yea I’d def be ecstatic for an inch never mind two haha although it’s gonna be like mud city outside after it.

Anyone want to chime in as to what expectation level should be down this way (let’s say CHO and southwest of there) with it moving in a little bit earlier?

Nobody biting on the 6z GFS band of snow coming thru this weekend? I saw @CAPEpost something earlier but guess it’s better to have snow tv than nothing.

I agree here. Too amped for my area down this way but I could see @clskinsfan and @WinterWxLuvrliking this setup, although the northern MD and southern PA crew are more than in it at this stage as well. Hopefully it trends south and east so everyone is happy but the way this year has gone I am not holding out much hope.

Never did see a darn flake. What a shame..

Short lived haha! Been rain for awhile but can still here sleet pellets hitting the window intermittently.

34.2 and moderate to heavy sleet right now.

Temps dropping nicely under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Down to 43 with a dew of 25. What is the current temp at the locations that are reporting sleet?

Still holding out some hope this neck of the woods. Advisory for 1-5”. Unfortunately think we’ll be on the low end of that, if anything at all. There’s a nice gap between the temp vs dew point as well right now. I will post some pics if we get anything.

Ain’t no way 5 inches is happening unless your over on top of Mt Rogers in NC or something.. I’d be thrilled with the ground whitened but have reservations even about that.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 245 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 VAZ007-009>014-016-017-022-WVZ042-120345- /O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0009.230212T0100Z-230213T0500Z/ Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd- Roanoke-Mercer- Including the cities of Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke, Salem, and Bluefield 245 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches, with isolated higher amounts possible. Ice accumulations of less than one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and gusty winds are expected and this may result in downed tree limbs and isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts...ice accumulation or wind damage to the National Weather Service via email at [email protected] Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

You ain’t kidding! I can’t even recall a period that even featured light snow at any point this winter, which is insane. You have a pretty good spot setup where it shows your current location is for this. With the wet bulb and isothermal layer, elevation, etc.. I think you will have a period of something wintry.

Ah see.. you gotta watch out for the method and ratios. I’m assuming you used the standard 10:1. This stuff is gonna be like concrete coming out of a mixer like 3:1 maybe 6:1 at the end as some colder air could mix down. Kuchera also helps and if you pull that up you’ll notice a huge difference.

What do you mean? I don’t think I’m following you.

LONGGGGGGGG range HRRR looks sleety..

LONGGGGGGG range HRRR way colder than any NAM product. Very sleety.

NAM warmer so far at 18Z. I did see Euro however and it did look pretty darn good.

NAM can't make up it's mind. Moving in precip much quicker than 12Z did. Don't know if it will make any difference for those that are on the fence with temps and time of day etc..

And that about just puts the nail in the coffin with GFS. Maybe higher peaks and around Asheville area but outside that threat is pretty much cooked.

High RES GFS (FV3) looks rather similar with band of snow at the end of it's run. Looks like it's trying to exhibit some convective elements in it as well. Kinda let's me know GFS will still have it. Let's see what GFS shows in about 30 minutes.

Hell at this point if I had a 2-4 hr period of moderate snow up this way and we got an inch or two, the way things have gone this year, i'd be elated, BUT I don't even foresee it even up deep into the Blue Ridge. I will reserve final judgment until GFS comes out, because it's been pretty consistent with a heavy band of snow traversing northern and northwestern most areas of the forum once the ULL swings.

12K NAM Kuchera

3K Total Snowfall.. Only thing we can hope for at this point is the Nam is being the Nam but we're starting to get closer to the event..

I honestly don't even buy the freezing rain potential. It will end up being 36 and rain.. it never fails. What a freakin year.