Buddy1987

Alright alright let’s see some clown maps for shits and giggles

I’ve always been taught that op is more or less good for within 5-7 day lead time and to take with a grain of salt beyond that, only to compare differences or similarities to the ensembles. I like how Heisy remains polite about his opinion and gives some meteorological ideas and reasonings behind it as well. Great job to everyone providing insight and analysis in here. Always appreciated.

I can confirm this as well. Moderate freezing rain with a temp of 31 and a heavier band pushing in. Trees starting to get caked.

30.0/23.9 SW VA temp has dropped pretty steady down here last 90 min or so.

Great post! I do feel like with cad setup here Nam does have some superiority or at least some credibility for 850s and 2m specifically. Everything else is really a crapshoot as to what it shows (or what it doesn’t sometimes haha)

That’s a really cool map. You can see the wind barbs feel the effect of the northerly component to the cad. What I would give to have some of the air with the dews up north of VT/NH/ME

Yea but even half is still not good at all. Normally we’re 60 the day before a freezing rain event. It’s been cold today and tomorrow leading into the event. I just feel like it will surprise some.

Verbatim NAM is a lot more snow up that way with only a glaze of ice.

Yea def.. looked at pivotal .74 for ROA, .71 CHO area.. .30” plus Culpepper and up 81 Harrisonburg etc all smoked with ice totals.

I’m more interested in the thermals with it to see how it handles the cad and it didn’t disappoint tonight.

WOOF!!! .74 ice accumulation for ROA .71 for CHO.. that happens lights out Winchester/Clarke/Warren/Woodstock smoked with over 7”

Beat me to it.. snow developing 12z Sat to start 81 corridor central and southern va.. pretty noticeable change.

Guess someone was on it earlier mentioning the SREF lol.. 12K NAM juicing up at 30

Great track too if that matters at this point.. MYR to right around VA Beach. Can’t ask for better track.

Those of us in central and southern VA may want to start preparing for a pretty nasty ice storm. Models at 12z trended colder. Majority of the precip looks to come through during overnight into Sat morning where temps would naturally be cooler due to nocturnal effect.

Yes Blacksburg actually wrote a nice little AFD this morning talking about the fact that they had a meeting with neighboring Wfo’s along with WPC. Foothills of NC went ahead and issued a winter storm watch post meeting but Blacksburg didn’t feel like they have the 50% threshold met yet with snow/ice to pull the trigger. I’ve seen some models pump out like .4 of ice down here which would be really bad.. if that starts to come to fruition I could see them possibly changing their mind as that would be pretty impactful in this area and the first moderate winter event in a couple years.

Fallen behind on some things that have been developed more recently. FV3 a decent high res model?

NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area.

Do you downgrade your forecast now or are you holding off until MLK time frame. This is pretty depressing we just can’t do winter or cold or snow anymore.

Kind of wishing for something at this point that doesn’t want to come to fruition. Congrats to people like @WxWatcher007 and @clskinsfan and folks up that way. @mappyyoull prolly end up good side of things too.

anyone still have access or know where to get it for ice accumulations. A lot of models I’m seeing are showing an icy setup down this way.

Well.. that was extremely disappointing to wake up to. Hopefully off run will come back at 12z. Don’t like the trend at all with weaker low exiting off the coast. GFS more like Euro this am.

On the next episode of Jerry Springer, the GFS.. every model run there’s a plot twist with this dang thing.. what a time to be a met for the nws trying to forecast for the general public.

What a d*ck kick to NYC north completely grazed. Ha!

96 DC getting absolutely murdered with meatball fatties. Cue up @Jebmanits time for the man to awaken the crowd.