beavis1729

We've had no more than 1" of snow on the ground here all winter. Maybe your location has had a bit more...but probably not enough to make a difference. I'm guessing you have no snow on the ground now, right? If so, then the 15-16 days of flakes in the air with little if any accumulation on each of those days doesn't really mean much. Flakes in the air are festive when there's already a foot of snow on the ground...but when the ground is bare, it doesn't really matter. In winter, days should be in the 20s and nights should be 5-15 degrees...and there should be snow on the ground. Not saying blizzards and sub-zero temps need to occur all the time...but when you look outside the window, it should look like winter. Very simple, and not too much to ask. And when you go outside, it should be cold. The warmest days should be in the 30s; day after day of 30s and 40s isn't winter. Just asking for seasons in seasons. In JJA, it feels and looks like summer. In DJF, it should feel and look like winter.

This is comical. 30-40 years ago, Dec. 2022's average temp of 29.1F would have generated a departure of roughly +2 to +3...as ORD's normals have gone up significantly over the past generation. This was not a cold December. 23 days had highs of 30F+, and 14 days had highs of 40F+. That is not even close to being wintry...yet somehow it's a below normal month??? Just ridiculous in so many ways; this is Exhbiit A (among hundreds of other examples) of how bad our winter climo is. December has the shortest days of the year, yet almost half the days in Dec. 2022 were in the 40s or warmer. Besides the 3-4 cold days around Christmas, the rest of the month was a torch. I actually agree with cromartie on this one...probably for the first (and only) time in history.

I hope you're being sarcastic. Normal lows are around 10 in Madison...so you can have frost even with a +10 to +20 departure. A January day with a low temp of 20 in Madison is considered a torch.

Your data from earlier years was downtown Chicago, which used to be the official reporting location…which of course is warmer than ORD in January due to lake/UHI. It’s not an apples to apples comparison. So, maybe the 1960s-80s were a bit cooler than other decades in Chicago, but not nearly as much as your numbers above might suggest. I know for a fact that Chicago normals in January were 29/13 when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s. When I was going to NIU in DeKalb (65 miles west of Chicago) in the 90s, their January normals were even colder…something like 27/9…which is close to or even a bit colder than Madison’s current January normals (!). Even if your point is somewhat correct, that would actually be even more depressing…as our current January normals would be expected to continue (or get even worse) going forward. For my own winter sanity, I refuse to accept that. I grew up with January normals of 29/13, so anything warmer is a disappointment. We can barely hold any cold in Dec and Feb these days (normal highs are in the low 40s on Dec 1 and Feb 28)…so it’s tragic to lose January too. I wasn’t comparing Chicago to the mid-Atlantic…I was only sharing a post from that forum that seems to capture the zeitgeist of the crappy winters that pretty much every location south of 45N and east of the Mississippi has had since 2014-15. And I’m talking snow depth days and the consistent feel of winter, not just snowfall amounts or some occasional wintry periods (which tell a very incomplete story). Either way, 38” is pathetic for an annual snowfall average. It just is. Where are the clippers? Where are the minor-moderate snow events? Where is the cold other than 5 days in December? 5 cold days out of 40 in met winter so far isn’t what I would call winter. My definition of a wintry day is a day with a max temp of 32 or colder AND 2”+ of snow cover. I use 2” as the threshold because a T-1” depth usually means some bare spots in exposed areas…which is unacceptable. So far this winter, Chicago has had…you guessed it…zero wintry days. Score yet another victory for the fooking general public and media.

Just going off memory/estimates... I believe the Chicago January normals for 1951-1980 were 29/13, vs. 32/20 for 1991-2020. I'm guessing the extreme increase in overnight low temps (up 7F in 40 years) is due to UHI and much less snow cover. Further north, snow cover always exists in January, so normal lows don't change much over time even with climate change occurring in the background. But in Chicago, January temps are extremely sensitive due to a highly variable element from year to year (snow cover). So, with a higher frequency of low-snow Januaries recently, plus UHI and climate change added in the background, average low temps increase significantly. It's shocking to me how no one is talking about this. All of this has happened in just 40 years - a mere speck in time in the grand scheme of things. This is what drives me crazy about winters here - we're always living on the edge and nothing is certain. We should be debating how much snow is on the ground this time of year; it shouldn't be a yes/no question. Ideally, an average run-of-the-mill winter should have 8-12" of snow cover now, simply due to the calendar and nothing more. Bad winters should still have 4-6", and good winters should have 15"+.

I fully realize that I may be grasping for straws in saying something bad about your winter climo. But it’s pretty sad that you have less than 30” of snow on the ground in the depth of winter, especially when you’ve had 115” of actual snowfall. Even your area has had too many thaws...it’s just ridiculous. It’s like everything is going wrong this year, outside of the MSP snow magnet. Even New England and the east coast has basically had zero snowfall this season. No one can escape the misery.

The 30-year normal for January at ORD is now 26F. Using 1951-1980 normals, it was 21F. So, Januarys in Chicago are 5F warmer at ORD than it was 40 years ago!! That would be laughable if it weren’t so sad. Even worse, no one in the scientific community or general public seems to care. People can debate that it’s only a timing issue I.e., the 60s and 70s were relatively cooler decades), or some UHI…but those are the facts. Our winter climo has always had very little margin for error, so this type of warming just kills things. Here is a recent comment from a respected poster in the MA forum. Obviously it’s not our area, but the thought process is still similar and valid for us: ————— Something vexes me. Over this now 7 year run of futility the one constant has been the problem a strong pacific jet has caused. But that’s now been a constant for 7 years through 4 Nina’s, 2 neutral and 1 Nino. And we’ve seen it cause the same problem in opposite pac longwave patterns. If we have a Nina like ridge the screaming jet goes over the top and digs a trough to Mexico on the west coast pumping a huge SE ridge infused with pac puke. If we have a Nino like trough the jet goes under and blasts sub tropical pac puke straight across the whole continent. The issue is according to research I’ve seen referenced the enhanced jet isn’t related to enso it’s a result of the expanding Hadley cell and might be permanent. If so…what are we even looking for? We’re failing in opposite ways because of the same underlying problem and I don’t see that going away no matter what longwave configuration we get. I mean ya once in a blue moon we will luck into the super rare full latitude epo pna ridge combo but the other 90% of the time what’s the answer?

As bad (good) as those stats are for ORD (MSP), seasonal snowfall totals usually make things look better than they actually are...especially down here in the tropics. Nothing against anyone in particular, but I wish people would stop focusing on seasonal snowfall amounts. Buffalo is a perfect example. They've had 100+ inches of snow this season, but essentially zero snow cover right now. Even I would admit they've had a decent winter so far...but I would be furious if I lived there, seeing so much snow melt twice in the past 6 weeks. You'd think Watertown would be saved from the melting, being further north than Buffalo...but not really. No one is exempt from melting these days (no pun intended). The main takeaway is that ORD hasn't had more than 1" of snow on the ground all winter, and MKE hasn't had more than 2". And even then, the # of days with even this paltry amount of snow cover has been minimal. All of this will probably remain true through January 10th and possibly beyond. I was just in central WI (near Waupaca) for New Years, and they barely have any snow on the ground...and it was near 40F there yesterday. This is all ridiculous and unacceptable. Last I checked, we don't live in Atlanta.

I hope you all don’t mind the perspective of an outsider…but part of the frustration (even up here in N IL) is that, if you don’t get the cold and snow to produce when the pattern is “good”, then you have to suffer through the other times. It would be nice if you didn’t need a million things to go right to actually have wintry weather in winter. In other words, it should be wintry simply because the calendar says it’s winter. Even up here, it will be in the 40s and 50s later this week…and we only got 1-2” of snow over the past couple of weeks. So, all of that effort of the decent pattern will be wasted, as the little bit of snow we did get ends up melting over the next few days. For snow lovers, you just want winter to be winter. The problem is that our non-good patterns aren’t wintry at all. I like to say “we don’t have winter; we only have wintry periods”. Even in the depth of winter (January), our average high is 32…meaning that some snow (if there even is any on the ground) melts on half the days. And it’s even worse in Dec and Feb. To me, that’s not winter. In order to live in a climate that truly has a winter season, you need 80%+ of the days in DJF to be “wintry”…which I define as a high temp of 32 or colder AND at least 2” of snow cover. We never come close to that 80% number here, because there are too many thaws. Our best winters like 1978-79 and 2013-14 are probably around 60-70%. The ironic thing is that, if you drive 200 miles due north of here into central WI, it changes dramatically…as average DJF temps are 5-10F colder (driven by colder nights due to snow cover and no UHI) with about 25% more snowfall. There’s a very large Midwest winter gradient. In JJA, the weather often feels like summer…like it should. I just want winter to feel like winter, and not have to worry about the snow melting. Seasons in seasons. Forgive my rant, and carry on. I love the discussion in this forum, so I hope you don’t mind my brief venting. Yes - we winter lovers often have unrealistic expectations.

No, the Bengals cold game was January 1982. One of the coldest months on record for much of the eastern US. That’s when Minneapolis had two huge back to back snowstorms. This month often gets forgotten compared to December 1983, 1989, 2000.

Look, I get the NWS focus on public safety…but it’s a bit much to obsess over an inch of snow with temps in the teens. It’s winter - these things are supposed to happen. It’s really not a big deal. Of course, if one wants to argue the opposite viewpoint, you’re basically saying that Chicago doesn’t have winter…and that any snow event is extraordinary. I actually happen to agree that Chicago doesn’t really have winter (we have wintry periods, but not winter). But pick one viewpoint or the other; you can’t have it both ways. Another component is the stupidity of the average Joe. If it’s slippery, drive slowly and keep your distance. The NWS shouldn’t need to watch over you.

Brownsville dropped to 27F today, and the dewpoint is currently 7F. Not bad for the southern tip of TX. This is their coldest December temp in more than three decades. It was 16F exactly 33 years ago, on 12/23/1989...which is their coldest December temp on record by far. All-time low is 12F during the infamous February 1899 cold wave.

From NWS Denver...although these are only the record calendar day, 2-day, and 3-day temp changes...as opposed to hours. Yesterday made the list as the 3rd largest calendar day temp change (51 to -10), and yesterday & today was the 2nd largest 2-day temp change (51 to -24). https://www.weather.gov/bou/denvertemperaturechanges

Looks like Denver (officially at DIA) hit -24 this morning. That's the 3rd coldest daily low temp on record in December: -25 on 12/22/1990 -25 on 12/24/1876 All-time coldest is -29 on 1/9/1875. Also, Denver's coldest daily max temp on record in December is -8 on 12/21/1983 (high -8, low -21). There's a slight chance of this being broken or tied today, but unfortunately I think it will warm up to around -5.

Looks like Denver (officially at DIA) hit -24 this morning. That's the 3rd coldest daily low temp on record in December: -25 on 12/22/1990 -25 on 12/24/1876 All-time coldest is -29 on 1/9/1875. Also, Denver's coldest daily max temp on record in December is -8 on 12/21/1983 (high -8, low -21). There's a slight chance of this being broken or tied today, but unfortunately I think it will warm up to around -5.

Pretty brutal conditions in Williston ND right now. Temp -23 with a sustained 25 mph NW wind, wind chill -55. Edit: even colder in Bowman ND, temp -24, NW wind 39 mph, wind chill -62. Wow…

NWS Great Falls mentioned in their AFD that valley locations could drop to -40 or colder under the high pressure, and that many automated thermometers may not be accurate since they are only calibrated to -40.

While we drown our sorrows over the recent model snowfall trends, here's the NWS Great Falls AFD for posterity. At least it will be cold somewhere. Wednesday night through Thursday...Record breaking temperatures are expected. Some locations will be colder than 40 below zero. It is possible some of the coldest valleys could see air temperatures colder than 50 or 60 below, as record surface high pressure approaches the region. (The all time record cold for the lower 48 states was at Roger`s Pass, with a temperature of 70 below.) Current temperatures in northern Canada are 50 to 60 below, thus these temperatures are possible. These records will be dependent on skies becoming clear, and any cloud cover will limit how cold it gets. Overall, current forecast lows for Thursday morning were adjusted a bit colder than the NBM and might need to be adjusted even colder over the next day or so should sky cover look to become more clear. Also, a wind chill advisory will be needed for portions of Southwest MT Thursday night into Friday morning. Note...be aware that some temperature sensors are only capable of measuring temperatures to near 40 below. Thus it could actually be colder than what is currently reported for some weather stations. The NWS/FAA temperature sensor can report temperature values down to 80 below.

Nice - should drop to around 8-10F tonight here, also the coldest of the season. Will be a bit chilly in northeast MT over the next 5 days...here's the point for the town of Plentywood. High of -20 on Wed. Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -15. Wind chill values between -30 and -35. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near -7. Wind chill values between -25 and -35. East wind 9 to 13 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -23. Wind chill values between -40 and -50. West northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -18. West northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Tuesday Night A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around -29. West northwest wind around 14 mph. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -20. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -26. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -19. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Friday A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -8. South southeast wind 10 to 16 mph. Friday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -15.

Come on...this is completely uncalled for. What is the point of saying something like this? Oh wait...I forgot that the American culture thrives on putting everyone else down as much as possible in order to feel better about ourselves.

Yeah...and at hour 120, there's a 1068 mb high in MT. Would be an all-time record for the lower 48. Oh, and it's a bit chilly under that high too...around -40F.

I mean the Lower 48 record high pressure - 1064 mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983.

Yeah, and by a lot. Current record is 1064 mb on 12/24/1983.

And the 18z GFS ups the ante, getting into the realm of the ridiculous. 1073mb in MT…and “only” at hour 210.

The Euro shows the mother of all troughs in the West toward the end of the run - it's really incredible. Not enough hot dogs to show the true magnitude. Near 20F in San Francisco and 0F in Seattle. And an insane temp gradient.