beavis1729

Thanks for responding, as always. I don't mean underperformed relative to NWS forecasts - I just mean underperformed relative to what should have happened given the situation and time of year. And, the fact that cloud cover really wasn't an issue makes it even worse. Unfortunately UHI always kills things, even in the suburbs. We just don't radiate well unless there is a very deep snowpack and the high is in an absolutely perfect place...and, even then, it's not always guaranteed. I thought we'd easily hit -8 to -10 imby, but we only dropped to -5. Many people here seem to care about forecasts...and obviously you need to at the NWS. But I only care about outcomes. I'd love nothing more than a forecast of 2" of snow to go horribly wrong, and we end up with 10". After looking into this further, the airmass itself wasn't really that impressive - thicknesses were only around 520. So, my expectations may have been a bit too high for this morning. I just hoped we were set up for an optimal starry night with some crazy temp drops - but it just didn't happen. Our MSN poster had a low of -17, with some -20s nearby...but nothing close to that here. That's what I'm referring to. Dare I bring up the 1/31/2019 debacle at ORD...4 years ago today.

Unfortunately, the cold actually underperformed in N IL by roughly 3-5 degrees, likely due to UHI and a bit of unexpected cloud cover. ORD only hit -1, and it was -5 here. -9 in DKB and -11 at RFD. I shouldn’t even need to say this since it should be a given…but, yes, all of these areas have snow cover.

Go for it - it's completely justified.

I hear you, and appreciate your response. The main reason I post on here is for the commiseration with fellow winter lovers...not so much the forecast details. In a society where cold and snow lovers are essentially banished, I figured a forum like this is a good place to chat with like-minded individuals. But I guess that's only true up to a point. It's like a die-hard Cubs fan who pines for a World Series - you drown your sorrows with fellow Cubs fans and complain/hope each year will be better than the last, even though you have no control...and then the magic happened after 108 years. And I do immensely respect what you and the others do at the NWS. Deploying science and good communication skills to protect the public - a very noble combination. When I was finishing up my meteorology degree at NIU in 1995, I volunteered at LOT that summer...which is when the insane heat wave occurred. I had the humble opportunity to broadcast over NOAA weather radio - kind of a weenie and nerdy thing I guess, but it was one of my most enjoyable summers. I also worked construction outdoors that summer - so being in the comfortable AC in the Romeoville office felt good too. I remember Ratzer and Merzlock were there - I assume they've retired.

It’s not black and white - it’s a balance. Just seems strange that 3.5 inches “falls” continuously over 12 hours (not just in the first 2-3 hours), but the depth after those same 12 hours is only 2”. Part of the frustration is our climo. If ORD’s average seasonal snowfall is only 37” even with this way of measuring, it only feels like 30-35” actually fell when you look at the depth after it snows. Example - If we receive 15” of snow in December, there should be at least 10” on the ground at the end of the month. Of course there is some melting and compaction…but the depth should build up throughout the winter. We don’t live in Dallas. It’s so hard to maintain a clean snowpack here…and today just sent me over the edge because we finally get the first decent snow of the season…but we can’t even maintain snow cover while the snow is still falling! I’d even be upset if 3.5” dropped to a 2” depth within 5 days after the snow ended…but what happened today is just ridiculous. It’s January, not April. If snow can’t manage to stay on the ground *while it’s actually falling*…then, yes, that should be considered when determining how much snow is recorded in the books. It’s just a rant from a frustrated weenie - not a big deal. Just ******* tired of dreadful winters over and over again. I grew up in the 70s and 80s - that is what I’m used to.

This seems inflated, a result of IMO poor standard operating procedure for snowfall measurements. Should be every 12 hours, not 6. If snow depth is down to 2” within basically 12 hours of an event starting, how can a reasonable person say that 3.5” actually fell? If the snow compacts/melts 24 hours after the event ends, that’s another thing. But during the event…it just doesn’t pass the reasonability test. Again, I’m not questioning the measurer - just the SOP. When one looks at the historical records after today’s snowfall, it will only look like a slightly below normal snowfall month through 1/25. But that’s ridiculous, because it has hardly snowed in January and has been extremely mild. The worst January ever, but it won’t look that bad in the historical records. When situations like that can be allowed to happen, it should cause the experts to revisit the measuring methodology.

Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8. It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55. Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often. The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area. Even 474 is extremely impressive. Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south. At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up. If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.

I was in West Yellowstone in early June, 5 years ago. It’s so beautiful there. Even with the long days during that time of year, it was around 30 in the morning and 60s in the afternoon. They have great radiational cooling conditions. All-time record low is -66.

It's difficult to have any hope given how ***************** this winter has been...but I think there's a small glimmer on the map above. Yes, the mean SLP is too far SE for here...but it's a 1008 mb mean. Many of the stronger solutions have SLPs in the mid 990s...which in theory would pull it further NW if it ends up being a stronger storm.

Glad to have someone else on board the train.

Correct. Thank you for confirming via yet another data point how horrible our climo is - mission accomplished.

Bring it on - then of course I would drive everyone crazy and they’ll ban me.

Maybe it's the +AMO cycle (which should be ending soon after nearly 30 years), and lack of +PNA. We need the "blob" (warm water by Alaska) to appear again, like in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Thanks for digging up the numbers...and the RFD observing site hasn't changed locations materially (as far as I'm aware). So, in the old days, either RFD observers simply reported snowfall totals based on the depth after settling/compaction (resulting in lower snowfall totals vs. today's measuring guidelines)...or RFD's snow climo is incredibly horrendous and this is one of the most shocking data points I've ever seen on this board. If it's the latter, then I really don't know what to say. It would be one more in an extremely long list of data points which shows how horrible winter climo is in N IL. How can RFD only average 22.8" of snow over a 30-year period?? Hell, even one year of 22.8" is unacceptable. If this is really true and we're eventually going to regress to the mean, then there's no point in hoping for sustained winter in these parts. And I thought 40" per season was bad...

Possibly for some lake enhanced events…but, overall, I think downtown (either due to melting on contact due to the urban jungle or marine influence early in the season) has materially less snow than ORD throughout the historical record. And I know many of us are on a short fuse these days. Look at the AmWx forum overall, it’s a disaster. Boston, NYC, PHL, and DC have had zero snow all season. I know that’s not unprecedented in DC…but this is getting pretty ridiculous for all locations east of the Mississippi and south of 45N. Sure, Buffalo and Watertown are exceptions…but their rapid melting following two large events is sad in its own way.

I clearly said that "I'm not suggesting that today's measurements are purposely overinflated". I'm just saying it was different 50-100 years ago. Why is that so controversial? People use stats in misleading ways all the time, whether intentionally or not. Measurements of average Chicago snowfall over the years have been distorted by changes in measuring techniques (probably didn't used to measure every 6 hours or be extremely precise on minor dustings) and changes in location...which suggests that the low-snowfall winters in the early-mid 20th century would have probably had higher totals if they were measured at ORD and using today's measuring techniques. It's not a difficult concept or thought process, and it's not intended to personally insult anyone. It's simply something for people to keep in mind when throwing numbers around.

To add some non-DC area perspective, if helpful: Chicago and Milwaukee have also not really had a winter so far. Chicago's greatest depth has been 1", and only for a few days during the brief pre-Christmas arctic outbreak. Milwaukee has been similar, even as their depth hit 2" briefly. Both have had essentially no snow since Christmas. NYC and Boston haven't had any snow at all. East of the Rockies and south of 45N, it has been absolutely horrendous...with no discernable end in sight.

While I’m not suggesting that today’s snow measurements are purposely overinflated, I highly suspect that an “event” like this 50+ years ago would have gone down in the books as a T. What I’m getting at is that the general increase in 30-year normal snow over the decades that you and Josh noted in the other thread is probably not a true increase at all. It’s driven by changes in measuring techniques. And, for Chicago in particular, the first half (at least) of our period of record was in downtown Chicago. In other words, the increase in 30-year snowfall over the decades is driven in part by the change in the official site location. UHI trends are one thing…but it’s hard to compare apples to apples when the observing site moves over time.

Yeah...which is just one more item to add to the mounting pile of evidence that illustrates how bad our climo is. I think it just seems worse this year because of the compounding effect of crappy Decembers over and over again for the past several years. We've had essentially no snow cover so far this season. Sure, we had 1" on the ground for a few days before Christmas...but is the bar really that low now? I'm thinking back to December 2000. Yes, I admit that was a good month for snow and cold...but, honestly, that's more like what winter should be. Not saying I expect every December to be like 2000...but they should be closer to 2000 than the crap we've endured recently. The problem with our climo is that, whenever we get a decent winter month, you know you'll probably not see it again for a very long time. Good (not necessarily great) months need to be more common. P.S. I refuse to admit or accept that Chicago's average December snowfall is less than 10". No matter what the stats say, I'm going with 10"...which is bad enough already. Every decade when the 30-year normals are updated, the average annual snowfall goes down. It used to be over 40", now it's down to 37" (?).

It sure hasn’t felt like ORD has had 4.5” of snow…it has been mostly dustings with the depth no greater than 1” all winter so far. I would have guessed 2-3”. If this is truly just a “run of the mill” below average snowfall December, that’s incredibly sad. It has felt like the worst December ever, outside of the tiny 5 day period from Dec 21-25 (and even that period wasn’t great, as there wasn’t much snow). The most important and all-encompassing metric for the quality of a winter is snow depth days (SDDs). That has been abysmal so far at ORD. Our climo SDDs are bad enough, but we are probably close to an all time record low through mid-January. I know it probably takes some effort to come up with the SDD data by year.

Yep - nice catch.

Point taken, and I agree…but this is exactly why I get so frustrated with our winter climo. Even if the average high is around 30 in January, we have so much variability around the average…which means that high temps of 40+ occur way too often for my liking. You really need average highs of 25 or colder in the winter season (not just January) in order to have a wintry climate, since you can absorb the thaws more easily while still preserving ice cover on the lakes and snow cover. Basically, Wausau WI and north…where (coincidentally) the “north woods” and black spruce trees begin.

Ha ha. It’s an emotional thing, not a logical equivalence. If you walk to a park on a summer day, what do you notice? Probably the fully leafed out trees, with the leaves swaying in the breeze. If you walk to a park in the winter (channeling Currier and Ives), do you think “oh great, the trees aren’t in bloom”? No - you imagine the picture postcard of snow on the ground. That’s the difference.

Why is it that, on a weather forum in a winter thread during the heart of winter, no one seems to care about the lack of wintry weather? Should we just post about whether it’s cloudy and 40 or sunny and 45? Does anyone else lament our lack of winter besides me?? What am I missing? Do people think it’s ok to have days on end of bare ground in the middle of winter? To each their own I guess…but then why post in a winter thread and annoy those who, heaven forbid, would like to enjoy this season for 3 months out of 12?

Maybe a bit…and it would be probably more accurate to say June 10th - September 10th due to the colder lake in the spring. But even on the fairly rare July day with a high temp cooler than 75F, it’s probably humid…which still makes it feel like summer. And the trees are obviously in full bloom…which to me is equivalent to having snow cover during winter. Even if you use a threshold of “85% of days feeling like summer”, we pretty much hit that every year…but it’s rare where we have 85% of days with snow cover in winter. Only 1978-79 comes to mind.