beavis1729

It went above zero at ORD this afternoon, hourly high of 1F (may have hit 2F intrahour). 36 consecutive hours subzero. But RFD is a different story. They stayed subzero this afternoon, and are up to 42 consecutive hours subzero. If they stay below zero tomorrow afternoon, it could be a Top 5 all time streak.

Forecast for Havre, MT. Current record low for January 13th is -35F set in 1997, which will be obliterated. Records go back to the late 1800s. All-time record low is -57F set on 1/27/1916. Normal for the date is 28/7. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -49. Wind chill values as low as -65. West southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Saturday Sunny and cold, with a high near -23. Wind chill values as low as -70. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -44. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 7 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -34. West wind 5 to 7 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny and cold, with a high near -7. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -23. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.

They get chinooks quite often, so on average most days aren't as cold as one might think given thier latitude/location. But when it gets cold, it can be extreme. This current cold snap is close to all-time record low wind chills...and in Nebraska too. NWS Omaha: Moving on to the bitter cold temperatures, a wind chill warning remains in effect from this evening through midday Tuesday. Wind chill values are forecast to eventually bottom out in the 40 to 50 below zero range Sunday morning. The current wind chill warning that we have in effect will be the longest duration wind chill warning that we`ve ever issued. Actual air temperatures will not likely get above zero Saturday through Monday for most of the area. This would rank the second longest stretch of consecutive days below zero for Omaha, the last most recent occurrence would be December 1983. The record is 4 days in February 1936. For context, the absolute lowest wind chills we`ve ever recorded in our area on -52 in 1983 in Omaha, -53 in 1990 in Norfolk, and -50 in 1983 in Lincoln. So we`re not forecasting record wind chills, but historically it will be close. For actual air temperatures, we could set min maximum temperature records the next three days at Norfolk with the below zero values, and we could set record low minimums at both Lincoln and Norfolk Sunday morning with lows 19 to 20 below zero.

^Yeah, that lobe of cold air is well into MT now. Cut Bank had a high temp (!) of -25F today...and that was at midnight. PM temps never got above -27F, and it could drop to -45F tonight with wind chills near -65F. Crazy stuff...

Maybe I should have re-phrased the issue. If the lake temps were 2-4 degrees cooler like they should be this time of year, we could have gotten away with the imperfect tracks of both systems. Once the winds turned east, areas near the lake were toast in both cases. It was even bad further inland. Last night, temps in SW Lake County IL were in the low 20s around 8PM, then shot up 8-12 degrees very quickly once the winds turned east. There was no margin for error. If this were November, you expect these issues...but not in January. Chicago and RC's points about the poor antecedent airmass were also true - can't argue with that - and I I tip my hat. Not trying to argue with anyone on this - but simply acknowledging and relating to the pain of snow lovers in the city who have a legitimate right to be furious and sad right now. Oh well, first-world problems...but it's a weather board after all, and the past two winters have been bad enough in our area. Edit: Just saw mimillman mention that Wicker Park has no more snow cover right now...that's ridiculous. Warm lake temps are definitely a factor...how could they not be? Not saying it's the only factor. Hopefully you guys can get some of the wraparound snow overnight.

Those totals are a huge disappointment. The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week. If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds. Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms. Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground. Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan. The warm December continues to haunt us.

The cold is ending up even more impressive than originally thought. From NWS Great Falls, for posterity. Forecast low tonight in Cut Bank, MT is -43...the forecast was in the -30s earlier today. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 837 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Snow continues to fall across the state through tomorrow morning. Extreme cold temperatures settle in for the weekend along with dangerous wind chills. Cold temperatures linger into next week. && .UPDATE... With this evening`s forecast update, I lowered some of the overnight mountain temperatures a bit more than those included in our original forecast. Further, I increased relative humidity values, especially for southwest Montana. Only minor adjustments were made to wind speed/gusts values. No further updates are necessary, at this time. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 (12/00Z TAF Period) Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS. Winter weather impacts aviation during this 12/00Z TAF period, causing airfields to fall into MVFR/IFR/LIFR ranges, in snow and/or blowing snow or mist/freezing fog. Periods of gusty winds are forecast. Mountain obscuration continues for the duration of this TAF period. Dangerously cold temperatures impact aviation ops, with surface temperatures reaching as low as 35 below during this TAF period. - Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Rest of today through Friday morning...A surface low pressure is sliding to the southeast along the western MT/ID border. The arctic front is currently draped along the middle Gallatin County to southern Powell county corridor. Current radar shows widespread light snow across Western, Central, North Central MT. The snow should slowly push southward along the arctic during the afternoon and evening. Southwest Montana should begin to see widespread snow move in during the evening. Widespread snow will continue to fall across the CWA through tonight and into Friday morning. Snowfall across the lower elevations will remain on the lighter side. However, current radar and surface observations show that there can be some moderate snow banding at times. Since liquid precipitation is low and snow ratios are high, total snow accumulations remain low. Lower elevations are forecasted to see between 1-3" of snow. The heavier snow will fall along the lower Rocky Mountain Front and the Gates of the Mountains region where the Winter Storm Warning remains on track. As the arctic front pushes south overnight into Friday morning, widespread snow should begin to end north to south. Snow will push out of the mountains and southwest Montana late Friday morning and clear out by Friday afternoon. The main concern for the short term forecast this weekend is the extreme cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind chills. Temperatures will continue to steadily fall through Saturday morning. With winds sustaining between 15-20mph, dangerous wind chills are the main impact. The Wind Chill Warning comes into an effect this evening for Central and North Central Montana and Wind Chill advisories for Southwestern MT. Overnight lows Friday morning are expected to reach 20 to 35 below in Central and North Central MT. -Wilson Friday through Sunday...A highly anomalous H500 trough and associated Arctic airmass will bring dangerous, and potentially life threatening, cold temperatures and wind chills to all of North Central, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through the period. NAEFS return intervals for H850-700 temperatures are on the order of 30 years to even outside of the climatological range. ECMWF EFI values with respect to both high and low temperatures are in excess of 0.95 across all of Southwest through North Central Montana, with a shift of tails of 0 to 1 across most of the Northern Rockies. This all translates into a highly impactful cold outbreak through the period; with the potential for not only new record low minimum temperatures to be established at numerous climate site, but also new record low maximum temperatures. Overnight low temperatures, particularly from Friday night through Saturday morning, have a 30-60% chance of exceeding 40 degrees below zero across the Golden Triangle (i.e. between Cut Bank, Havre, and Great Falls). I would not be surprised if a couple of 50 degree below zero reports occur over this timeframe and overall location given the forecasted surface high of ~1045mb to 1050mb expected to slide south along the Canadian Rockies and over Northern Montana. Forecasted high temperatures over the timeframe are unlikely to exceed 10 degrees below zero north of the I-90 corridor, with overnight lows generally dipping into the 20 to 40 degree below zero range. I can not emphasis how dangerous it will be to be outside for anyone who is not dressed properly or becomes stranded while traveling. Wind chill values of 40 to nearly 70 degrees below zero are expected expected north of the I-90 corridor at times through Sunday, with the coldest wind chills expected to occur from this evening through Saturday morning. If you must travel, have an emergency kit for your vehicle and keep the gas tank as full as possible. Even short trips could become life threatening if your vehicle breaks down and you are unprepared. - Moldan

Would be the 4th longest streak of sub-zero on record (behind Dec 1983, Feb 1996, Jan 1982 and surpassing Jan 2019). And while this is likely overdone, 12z GEM at hour 96 has a pixel of -63F in south-central Alberta.

Copying this over from the January thread... The cold air is on the move...you don't often see a Wind Chill Watch for 3+ days in length. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-101645- /O.NEW.KOAX.WC.Y.0001.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KOAX.WC.A.0001.240113T0000Z-240116T1800Z/ /O.CON.KOAX.WS.A.0002.240111T2100Z-240113T0000Z/ Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy- Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Pawnee- Including the cities of Blair, Wahoo, La Vista, Papillion, David City, Sterling, Fairbury, Table Rock, Beatrice, Yutan, Crete, Fremont, Columbus, Pawnee City, Bellevue, Ashland, Nebraska City, Lincoln, Wilber, Plattsmouth, Tecumseh, Milford, Seward, Omaha, and Schuyler 243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Nebraska. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight Thursday Night to noon CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Friday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact daily commutes Thursday and Friday. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

Not a spread the wealth event on 18z GFS...as much of that map west of MI is from today's event plus a bit more Thu AM before the main event.

NA record is 1079mb in Dawson, Yukon 2/2/1989. Lower 48 record is 1064mb at Miles City MT 12/24/1983.

12z GEM shows a 1070 (!) mb high pressure north of MT at the end of the run, with temps near -60F. Just incredible to see this on a map...

Yeah. There’s a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone…and near 0F in Seattle. Quite the temperature gradient too.

You aren't kidding - there's a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone. Nice temp gradient too...

Adding to the debate on how bad this December has been relative to other clunkers: It hasn't necessarily been the worst December in every single area (for example, it's been horrendous IMBY...but with very few extremely mild days, it won't be record warmest). Just constantly above average, day after day after day...which is just as bad. With that said, the lack of snow and cold on average across the entire CONUS has been shocking, way worse than I've ever seen in any December. One anecdotal data point: INL's record warmest December is 22.8F in 1913 (records go back to 1906). As it looks now, December 2023 will obliterate that. Through Dec. 21st, the average has been 25.9F. While it may cool down towards the very end of the month, the 25.9F average will go even higher over the next 5-7 days. Breaking a monthly record by 3-4 degrees on a POR of 117 years is noteworthy. And INL has only had 2.9" of snow since Nov. 12th, with no snow cover on most of those days...just horrible. This is the icebox of the nation, around 49N in the Midwest. Our annual mid-January snowmobiling trip to northern WI is in jeopardy - just no snow to be found anywhere. Usually, their snowmobiling season starts in mid-December. Places with a nearly 100% chance of a White Christmas won't be seeing one this year.

This (and the Winnipeg green Christmas) shows why this December is so much worse than a typical bad December. Very few places in NA south of 55N will have a White Christmas. This is probably unprecedented. Not just the absence of a White Christmas , but the lack of snowfall at all. There has hardly been any snow all season in the Dakotas, MT, MN, WI, MI, IA, etc. Winter is nowhere to be found, anywhere. I know it’s still early to write off the whole season, but you can’t deny how pathetic December 2023 will be when all is said and done.

Yeah, and 12z continues it. Hopefully it’s a delayed but not denied situation. For several days/runs, models were showing highs in the 20s here on Thanksgiving Day, now they’re showing 45-50.

Yeah, 77-78 and 78-79 were the two snowiest winters in Chicago’s history. 82” and 90” respectively…and in 78-79 some places in far NE IL exceeded 100”. Plus, peak music…and disco ruled. Good times!

This was also the 3rd warmest min on record for so late in the season. Min was also 65 on 10/29/1946 and 10/31/1974. Highest min on record for November is 63.

Low at ORD this morning was 81. If this holds through midnight (actually, even if it stays at 79+), it will be the warmest min on record for so late in the season. Next closest is 78 on 8/27/2020. We'll have to see if any storms or the lake-enhanced front brings the temp down before midnight.

Macomb IL is reporting 100/84/131 at 3 PM.

I know this thread is focused on TX/OK...but Baton Rouge, LA just set a new record with 9 consecutive 100+ days...and the streak could reach 12+ days. 7 of the last 8 days have set or tied a record high. The heat in the south has been unbelievable this summer. Not just local areas - basically the entire southern tier of the US.

https://www.weather.gov/lot/observation_history ^ Here’s a link to the obs locations for Chicago weather records, back to the 1870s. Unfortunately the official site has changed a lot, so it’s hard to compare apples to apples over time. ORD is much different than downtown/lakeside, whether due to lake impacts or UHI (although the UHI at ORD keeps worsening over time). ORD has been the official site since 1980, even as ORD data goes back to 1959.

I know many of you are focused on Dallas and Houston, but south of there in TX it has been a brutally hot and humid summer. Corpus Christi has had excessive heat warnings nearly every day for the past month. Besides hot temperatures, the humidity has been crazy due to above normal GOM temps. Constant dew points between 76-82 for weeks on end…not sure how people can deal with this.