beavis1729

Yeah, unfortunately today’s runs (including the 18z GFS) completely lost the -EPO that several runs over the past few days were showing. And it’s not like this was 2+ weeks out, it was roughly days 6-10. I guess this type of rug pull is tolerable for now, since it’s still mid-November. If this was 2-3 weeks from now, I would be furious.

I'm expressing societal concerns - it's not about me.

Even though you said you're aware of the station location changing, it's a huge factor in why the winter temp has only risen 0.3F over the past 150 years in Chicago. A station right on the lake is always meaningfully warmer in the winter in this neck of the woods, so it's not a fair comparison to ORD. I find it funny that nearly 100% of the scientific community is concerned about the recent warming, and it's clear that the impact of UHI on temps (and exacerbating the impact of heat waves) is worsening...yet I'm the one who is out of line in my comments? All I'm doing is summarizing the consensus and concerns. Of course temps have been warmer in Earth's history, but it's the rate of warming recently which has been shocking. Places in the arctic have warmed 5+ degrees over the past 100 years. The lower 48 hasn't warmed as much, but still a material change. How could one argue that this isn't something to be mindful of? As mentioned before, I actually do believe/hope the recent warming is somewhat driven by seasonal/decadal factors...but until we see how the next 10-20 years shake out, shouldn't we have a heightened level of concern? It's just solid proactive risk mitigation. I also happen to believe that we have a lot of other environmental issues on Earth which are much more concerning than climate change...but that's for another discussion. I know you may not mean this...but some people on this board come across as not being worried at all, and even dismissive of anyone who simply voices the consensus. That's strange to me...but I suppose it's in line with the individualistic U.S. mindset/approach on all issues, i.e., "me, me, me...who cares about how things may impact anyone else." Edit to add: here's a clear illustration of the worsening impact of UHI during heat waves. For August 26-27, the AM lows at ORD were 79, 78...compared to 72, 74 at RFD and 75, 75 at MLI. The air mass was essentially the same in both places. One could even argue it was more humid at MLI, yet even so the AM lows at ORD were 3-4F higher. Besides the obvious frustration about human/industrialization impacts on local climate, the lack of nighttime cooling has been documented as a significant concern re: modern heat waves in urban areas.

I think people are getting caught up on the semantics of the word "historical". To me, historical doesn't mean the same as unprecedented. Yes, it has been hot this time of year in the past, and yes it has hit 100 in Sept before. But normal highs are near 80 this time of year, so the 96 & 99 highs at ORD yesterday & today respectively (combined with very high humidity, dews mid-upper 70s) are an extremely unusual occurrence in late August. Why is this controversial? It's just like in winter, when people use basic high-level numbers to judge how good a month or season is. There is much more to it than that. For example, if January has 10" of snow but with snow cover all month due to cold temps, it's definitely more wintry than a January with 15" of snow with constant thaws. The point is that total snowfall doesn't tell the whole story of a winter. Same idea in summer - the past 2 days at ORD had extremely high humidity with very high overnight mins. This is much worse from a historical/impact perspective than a 102/65 max/min with dews around 60. In other words, high temps alone don't tell the whole story. The Climate Changer is correct that things have been warming up recently, especially in UHI areas. Of course, this is in general...not necessarily every single year. And, of course, we can't attribute individual heat waves to this. But people have a right to worry about more heat waves, especially if you live in a city with worsening UHI and the public planning/actions aren't helping to mitigate UHI (much less acknowledge that it's a problem to begin with). I guess we have know-it-alls on this forum who go against all of the established science. For what purpose - to stir up drama? Why? Recent warming is common knowledge, even if it's not 100% man-made. Pointing this out shouldn't be controversial. Look at the average temps at ORD as an example; they've increased 3-4 F over the past 40 years in winter, and 2-3F in the other seasons. That's a very big deal. Heck, even a 1F change would be a big deal over 40 years, which is a speck of time in the grand scheme of things. It's even worse in the arctic. Perhaps The Climate Changer and others get frustrated sometimes because no one (meaning "global society") seems to acknowledge it, or care, or do anything about it. It's the same idea as a person who works tirelessly to advocate for affordable housing and other policies to help the homeless...but nothing ever gets better because not enough people in important/influential positions care. Whether it's UHI worsening, higher nighttime mins (not as much daytime maxes), more impact in the winter vs. summer, or a combination of all of these...it's definitely happening. Personally, I'm putting my hope on a reversing AMO to slow or even reverse the warming a bit...which will be great if it happens. But even so, it's reasonable to take an approach of "I'll believe it when I see it". There are going to be deaths from the current heat wave, especially in Chicago due to less access to AC and other reasons. That in and of itself makes it a noteworthy and concerning (one could even say "historical") event, unless we don't care about people suffering. None of these comments are meant to be alarmist; it's just the unfortunate reality. Why is it nonsense for The Climate Changer to point these things out? If people don't want to accept the factual/statistical info, you can put him on ignore.

Bayfield and the Apostle Islands are a beautiful area…love it up there. Hope you have a good time even with the iffy weather.

Falfurrias TX was 101/82/128 this afternoon.

I suppose...but this early in the season? Any Heat Index above 95F is horrible imo, so yes I'm biased.

And it's even worse today. Brownsville is 102/80/124, and McAllen is 107/74/121...just unbearable.

McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May.

Vegas was 90/16/84 yesterday, RH 7%. And even that's nothing, especially in June when the heat really kicks in but it's still before monsoon season. It's not uncommon to see June afternoons around 100/5/92, RH 3%. At 3PM on 7/2/2007, it was 110/-7/99, RH 1%...just insanely dry.

Impressive late-season cold, especially by recent standards. It was 30 here. Some low temps in the LOT area: ARR 24 RFD 26 (record is 24 in 1988) DKB 28 FEP 28 DPA 29

Yeah, I've seen SDDs mentioned fairly often, but mainly in places where there's a reliable snow cover each year. I like it because it brings a lot of important variables together (temperature, cloudiness, snowfall, frequency of thaws) and is a great way to capture the overall tenor of a winter. If one cares about living in a wintry place, it's probably the best/simplest metric to compare winters from one locale to another. Simply using snowfall as a winter metric can be very misleading. I'd much prefer a frontloaded winter with 40" of snow and a -10F temp departure, vs. a winter with 60" of snow and a +5 temp departure. The former would have a lot more SDDs.

Another nice winter in southern Alaska. Anchorage just had their 2nd snowiest winter on record (132.6"). Average is 77", and the record is 134.5" set in 2011-12. Even more impressive is the snow depth days (SDDs) and # of days with snow cover. I'm not sure what those records are for Anchorage, but the final 2023-24 numbers have got to be close...and possibly brand new records: - 3,965 SDDs (the record snow season of 2011-12 had 3,807 SDDs) - 174 days of 1+" snow cover, including 172 consecutive days - 170 days of 6+" snow cover...more than 5.5 months! - 152 days of 12"+ snow cover - Peak snow depth of 38" on 2/5 (record snow depth is 47" on 1/1/1956) - Still 20" snow depth on 4/14, and 10" on 4/21 Warmer temps are on tap, which should allow for a quick snowmelt. Normals for April 15th are still fairly chilly (45/30), but high temps will probably soar well into the 50s later this week. *Edit #1: First 50F of the season on 4/20; the first 50F temp in Anchorage since 10/2/23 (201 days ago) *Edit #2: Updated stats through 4/24/24

Not intending to speak for weather will, but there is probably a reverse psychology component to this. I can relate to it, since unfortunately I do it too. In the northern suburbs of Chicago, we have had 9 consecutive bad winters. 2013-14 was good, 2014-15 was decent (can’t call it good since the first half of winter was almost non-existent that season). The 9 since have been bad, using more meaningful metrics like SDDs (as opposed to snowfall totals). If snow melts after a few days, it ruins the ambience and tenor of winter. After so many years of being let down, one stops getting excited about winter overall (and snowstorms that show up on models) because it has often resulted in being let down. But in March, you feel more open to being excited, since it’s out of the “expected” season so you have less to lose if the threat falls apart. So, I don’t think it’s trolling. It also bothers me when people talk about climo all the time, and keeping expectations in check. If that were really true, there’s really no use getting excited about winter. There are certain absolute standards for winter. If you live in Miami, 1976-77 was a cold winter relative to normal. Does that mean it should get an A grade? Of course not, since there was never snow on the ground. Bing Crosby didn’t sing “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…with the caveat and hope that all of the atmospheric indices line up perfectly.” I just want symmetry in the seasons. If you wake up in the heart of winter, it should be reliably cold with snow on the ground. When I look out the window in July, I know it’s going to feel and look like summer. There are no worries. I think a lot of us just want winter to be more consistent and reliable. It doesn’t mean there haven’t been wintry periods IMBY over the past 9 years…but there is no consistency. In late January 2019, we had two mornings in the -20s with nearly a foot of snow on the ground, but then it was in the 40s two days later. That’s unacceptable. Cold snaps seem to flip quickly, instead of more gradual warm ups on the back end of them. End of rant - all of this to say that, for people who really love the tenor of winter and like the harmony of seasons in seasons, it has been a very difficult period. The worst part about this winter is that, even in places where I thought winter was always sacred (like 45N and north in the Midwest), it has been horrendous. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI, and both were canceled. In fact, many areas never opened trails at all! Usually the season is from 12/15 to 3/15. It’s just horrible. Many areas in far northern WI average near 100”, but have only had 20” this season. Parts of MN have had less than 10” for the season. Obviously I don’t live in your forum area, but I stop by here often for the quality of discussion (same with TN valley). The lakes/Ohio valley forum seems puritanical, like you’re not allowed to be excited about snow and cold. Just wanted to add some context to the frustration and conversation. I hate to admit it, but it seems like we need to wait for the AMO and PDO to flip, in order to even have a reasonable chance at a decent winter. I realize this is a pessimistic view, but unfortunately it seems like a reasonable approach after 9 consecutive warm/bad years.

Make that 77F at Rockford - just ridiculous. Normal high is 38F.

Yeah, I thought it would mix out quite a bit more. It has at Rockford - 77 (!)/40.

84 at STL

Prior to yesterday (records going back to 1893), Rockford's record high temp in DJF was 70F on 2/22/2017 and 2/25/2000. They hit 73F yesterday, and are already up to 73F at noon CST today. Two days in a row of all-time record high temps for met winter, going back 130 years.

All The Climate Changer is doing is shining a light on what a catastrophe this winter has been, and speaking up when everyone else is silent. He's taking the data angle, and I'm taking the emotional angle (I've been doing the latter for years, but 2023-24 is the last straw). Either way, it's horrible...and deserves to be hyped and communicated as much as possible. He's right that the media is basically silent on what is going on this winter. Shockingly, it's even worse than that, because Joe Public is actually happy to have warm and snowless winters. If people are thinking this, then journalists aren't doing their job because the facts aren't getting communicated accordingly. Let's just do what the US does on every environmental issue - just remain silent and complicit. There's a political/justice-related saying from Plato: "silence is consent". And just like bullies do in school, people who have the courage to document and speak out against atrocities are often punished and told to keep quiet. I'm not comparing this winter to various forms of social injustice - just trying to make an analogy for purposes of understanding. This winter has set a new bar for how bad things can be. My go-to place in northern WI (Minocqua) has only had 15" of snow this winter, and 124 (!!) SDDs. They average 100" of snowfall and approximately 1,600 SDDs. And their DJF temp will probably shatter their old record by 3-5F, with records going back to the early 1900s. This is an abomination, and doesn't deserve to be minimized. From both an emotional and data-related standpoint, how can people be ok with this? Why isn't everyone furious and worried? The shocking thing about Winter 2023-24 is how bad it has been across nearly all of the Lower 48. Usually, at least some places have winter while others miss out - but this season, it's across the board. That's what he and I are trying to say - trying to get people to care, and to stop minimizing things. It's not right for winters to be warm like this. People can debate the degree of CC vs. natural variability...but, either way, it's just not right. So, we should say it. And don't even get me started on UHI - a whole other issue which is extremely concerning. If you step back and realize how much humans can impact temps in a city environment, it seems so unnatural...yet everyone just accepts it and moves on. The normal January low at ORD has increased by 4-5F over 40 years - how can that be ok?? We as a society should be doing everything possible to stop this - but no one cares at all. Gee, I wonder why - everything is "individual freedom" - heaven forbid we pool together and take collective action to solve problems. Individual freedom should be A consideration, not THE consideration. And then when a group of people actually does work very hard and summon up the courage to try to change something, it gets stalled because society/government/policy wonks/corporations/etc. don't want anything to change. For people who love winter, it has been hard to suffer through every winter since 2014-15. That's 9 winters in a row. You can have the other 275 days in the year - what's so wrong with letting people have 90 days of consistent winter? Most people on this board love winter, yet they act like bullies and put everyone else down when they express their true thoughts. Why aren't we all in this together? What's the problem with admitting that you love the season, and that the current situation is horrible? It doesn't matter what ENSO and the 5,000 other cyclical indices say; there should be more than 10 "good" days, even in the worst winters. Not expecting 90 days - but at least 50 or 60. The good folks in Minocqua and nearly every other place in the Lower 48 are suffering because of this. No one wants to have a drink at the local watering hole, or get together with friends at a nice restaurant, when there is no snow for skiing, tubing, stargazing, snowshoeing, and other activities. And a true, deep winter-like White Christmas (not just 1-3" of slop at best) has become a pipe dream, even though it's the shortest days of the year and it should just happen because of the calendar and the mystique around it. The winter atmosphere is slipping away, and everyone is just staying silent while it happens. It's catastrophic - so please let people speak up about it without feeling shy about it, and spread the word. There is no need to rationalize something that is so bad - we just need to admit how horrible it is, and stop being in denial. It can't and shouldn't be rationalized. And I'm not saying we'll never have good snowstorms or occasional cold outbreaks again. But that doesn't really matter either way...because winter is a mindset based on duration and consistency simply due to the calendar, not the ups and downs of individual storms and needing to hope for certain patterns to produce anything resembling true winter cold. In summer, we don't worry about warm temps - they just happen. And that's great, for summer. I'm not opposed to summer and any other seasons - just let them fit into their appropriate place on the calendar. One thing I do agree on - there should be a separate thread for climate-related info. But there's no need to jump down people's throats simply because they express genuine concern and frustration. There could be a kind request to start a new thread - very simple. In many aspects of life, it's difficult to deal with situations where you feel alone, like you're the only one experiencing something. One purpose of these forums is to bring people together who have a common interest - so let's get back to that and support each other. It would probably be easier if we knew each other in person, instead of typing keystrokes through a screen. I just want all of us to have good intentions, and do things for the right reasons. If you want to take the "not so serious" angle - that's fine too. For people who love winter, it has just sucked lately - there's no other way around it. So let us complain and vent; I wish others did the same. Stop the bickering - nothing to hide.

You’re all measuring “futility” wrong. Instead of total snowfall, try looking at SDDs, or average temperature, or # of days with snow cover, or # of days with the high temperature below freezing. Those are much more important metrics when determining the grade of a winter. If a 6” snowfall occurs and then melts in a day, it doesn’t really do much. But if a 6” snowfall occurs at the end of November that helps to usher in cold temps and snow cover through the end of December, it makes the winter a lot better.

Not sure I follow. Turd polishing and liking winter are not the same. In fact, they're complete opposites. I don't get tired of you liking winter, but you're turd polishing because your standards for winter are very low...which causes you to be happy about very basic/minimum things in winter that shouldn't require much effort. As an example - if we have a good 5-15 day period in winter, that's not a big deal. Winter is 90 days, so why would anyone be happy that 5-15 of those days feature consistent winter? I would be unhappy if 50 days did...so only 5-15 days is horrible. That's what I mean by turd polishing. If one likes winter, one should have very high standards. How can anyone who loves winter be happy with any winter season since 2014-15? I don't care about comparisons to climo or actual seasonal snowfall totals; there are certain minimum standards that need to be met. "Tenor of the winter" metrics are the most meaningful...such as SDDs, # of days with frozen lakes, # of wintry days (defined as a day with high temps in the 20s or colder AND 2"+ snow depth), etc. If we get a 10" snowfall that melts within a week, we shouldn't be happy just because our paltry climo monthly average snowfall is met. That isn't winter, because there are 20 other days in the month that need to be mostly wintry-feeling too. A climo winter around here is bad enough. So, by default, 60-80% of our winters here are horrible for winter lovers. What's a huge slap in the face about the current winter is that places which should be totally immune from this crap are seeing a bad winter...and that's the last straw. I get furious enough when we don't have 2 consecutive months of snow cover here at 42.1N...so it's 100x worse when places at 45-49N are dealing with the same thing. Nothing is sacred anymore. Will we ever get to experience a DJF all 3 of these very important "tenor of the winter" things are true, at least 80-90% of the time? Even I have reasonable standards, since I didn't say 100%. (1) You wake up and look outside, and it always looks like winter (snow cover) (2) You walk outside, and it always feels like winter (temps) (3) You don't have to worry about the snow melting (stability) We can barely get (1) or (2) for any more than a week these days, so there's no chance to ever imagine (3). But (3) is the most important thing for a winter lover. Many people on the forum nowadays seem to think that people should be happy with winter simply because it's colder than summer. Hooray, I guess?? If there are 3 months of summer, there should be 3 months of winter. Endless days of dry weather with temps in the 30s and 40s is not winter. Do we ever have endless non-summer days in July/August? No - when I wake up on August 1st, I don't have to worry about whether it will feel like summer. I don't know what's worse about this winter - the actual weather, or the fact that people aren't completely furious and throwing things against the wall in frustration. People on the forum seem to be taking this in stride, which is ridiculous. I want to see more complaining, not less...because it shows that people actually care. Everyone is participating in turd polishing this winter, not just Josh. Bing Crosby didn't say "I'm...dreaming...of a White...Christmas (but only if all of the indices align perfectly, and it's not too early in the season for lake warmth, and then the snow will melt right away if it falls later in the season, and we should be happy with 7 days of winter in a season and we have to hope in coincides with December 25th)." And this can't be blamed on ENSO state. Last year wasn't a strong El Nino, and it was still a horrible winter. Same for most of the last 8 winters. It's always something...do we really need all of the stars to align perfectly just to have winter?? If so, what's the ******* point? People often misunderstand my views. I want to enjoy all 4 seasons -= they just need to each be 3 months!! Not much to ask, but it's like pulling teeth to get anything close to that since 2014-15. It drives you crazy.

It may not be much consolation...but everyone in the Lakes/Midwest is having a horrendous winter. Some places in MN have had less than 6" for the season, and there's currently no snow cover in the entire states of WI and MN...when this is normally the period of the season with the deepest snow cover. There are no words to convey how ridiculous this is. Every day, I feel like yelling and throwing things against the wall - it's just unacceptable. I had a couple of snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, but both got cancelled (not even due to poor trail conditions, which would be bad enough...but it's completely bare ground). Places in northern WI which average nearly 100" per season have only had 10-15" of snowfall so far, and most of that was in November. They're on track to obliterate the warmest winter on record.

I guess this season is a reminder that, even in the relatively more wintry areas within the lower 48, nothing is ever guaranteed. Would be nice to be able to wake up in winter and know that it will be a wintry day (snow cover and high temps < 32F) simply because the calendar says it’s winter. Just want seasons to be seasons - nothing crazy. We can count on 3 months of summer, but not winter.

Yeah...and this has sort of gone unnoticed. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, and both were cancelled since they haven't been able to open the trails. The most shocking stat of all is that essentially the entire state of WI has bare ground...on February 6th! There are no words to describe how ridiculous this is. North of 45N, they typically have 10-25+" on the ground now. The entire Midwest had a 7-day period of winter this season - that's it.

Disclaimer: Tenor of the post is as a fellow weenie, separate from you and your colleagues being valued NWS employees... The issue, as always, is that our expectations are so low. When people resign themselves to the fact that 10 days of winter (regardless of ENSO state or various indices) is acceptable, where does that leave us? Even if the 10-day stretch is really good (in this case I'd give it a B or B+ since our friends in the city missed out and it had the potential to be even better), would we ever be ok with 10 days of summer? In summer, people don't care about the indices - it's just summer. Sure, some patterns can be 70s and humid and others can be 90s and dry, but it still feels like summer either way simply because of the calendar. Can't chalk it all up to a strong El Nino. Last year didn't feature that, but the winter was still horrible. It's maddening to have to depend on the perfect alphabet soup of indices to get winter. Shouldn't the calendar be enough? Our problem is temps, not precip/snow. A day with a high of 15F in January shouldn't be a big deal. Sure, it's a bit cold...but nothing crazy. The problem is that it needs to be offset by another day with a high of 45F, since our average high in Jan is 30F. The good patterns can be really good, but it's short-lived and everything else is bad. Would have been nice to follow up the 10-day good pattern with regular winter, like highs 25-30F and lows in the teens with a bit of snowfall. Nothing crazy, just some basic winter-type stuff. But it's always way up and way down. We never get "normal" winter weather here. It's either a good pattern which you hope produces in a short window...or nothing. And it's even worse because all of those comments are referencing Jan, the core of winter. Dec/Feb are even worse, as average monthly highs are higher, around 35F. The problem with low expectations is that it makes people think they should be ok with 10 days of winter, when DJF is 91 days long. If that's the case, what's the point of being excited about winter? So maybe we get to celebrate 20-30 days in winter (instead of 10) with other ENSO states? Ok...I guess that's a small improvement. Would be nice to look out the window in DJF and not have to worry about melting. I don't look out the window between mid-June and mid-Sept and worry about it being cold outside. You may have an occasional cool morning...but 98 times out of 100 it will feel like summer in summer. No one is asking for subzero temps and feet of snow continuously; just a nice 6-8 week stretch of temps mainly in the 10s-20s (even a few afternoons in the 30s, as long as the nights are cold) with at least some accumulating snow in the less productive weeks. I guess we pin our hopes on mid-Feb to mid-Mar, even though it will be tough to keep snow on the ground? If Dec would have been decent, the current stretch would be more tolerable...but winter was nowhere to be found in the month with the shortest daylight and the holidays. Regardless of how the rest of the winter turns out, it's impossible to recover from that. We finally get the lakes to freeze around here, then it all goes to ****. Nothing is stable or consistent. There should be a 4-6 week period where the lakes are frozen, regardless of indices. Maybe it's even more than 4-6 weeks in the better winters (imagine that!), but the big issue is stability and the feeling of winter. We just don't have it here - it can't be counted on.