beavis1729

Agree, although it would also help to have actual weather to discuss. Looking forward to talking about our 40s and 50s, and whether it will be cloudy or rainy or sunny. Very dramatic...rinse and repeat for the next 9 months.

Congrats sir - at least someone is getting something out of this.

First option...as long as the lions share of the snow occurred early in the season, after which the cold would preserve the modest snowpack.

Grade of F- easily. Only 6 “wintry days” at ORD, defined as a day with a high temp in the 20s or colder AND 2”+ of snow cover. Only 53 SDDs so far. It is hard to overstate how bad that is. Max snow depth of 3”. Pathetic on all counts. Total snowfall has 0% weight in the grading, on a stand-alone basis. Of course, all else being equal, more total snowfall would imply more SDDs...but this winter has been so warm that the total snowfall metric is even less important than usual.

Right on...and then the subsequent meltdown, after realizing that this apparent “recovery” on the 0z NAM was just a mirage after all...after seeing today’s 12z NAM. This winter has invented about 10 new ways to fail. No cold air at all, no clippers, no phasing, Christmas which felt like summer, on and on and on and on. It’s a complete abomination.

The 12z 3km NAM still looks “ok” (it’s all relative) for NE IL, but the bleeding has to stop right now. If it doesn’t, it’s game over. Not the best thing to be hanging our hat on, but it’s all we got.

That bad?

Do you think ratios will be closer to 12:1 like the Euro Kuchera has been showing...or 8:1 like the NAM?

A meltdown is a badge of honor. Need to hold out until 0z tonight when the first wave is fully sampled, then it’s full tilt mode.

I imagine it's best to look at the Euro ensembles at this stage.

Green is a snow depth of 24"+.

Even though this arctic air mass will be short-lived in the Midwest and Plains (what else is new), it's pretty potent. Grand Forks ND was 29 at 1 AM this morning...and by 8 AM, it dropped to -13 with blowing snow and N winds sustained 39 mph, gusting to 49 mph...wind chill -47.

Good to know that winter is happening somewhere. Deadhorse, AK had a wind chill of -80 at 6 PM local time on 2/7/2020. Temp -47 with a SW (offshore) wind at 15 mph. It's their 2nd coldest wind chill on record, behind the -85 in January 2012. Coldest AK wind chill in 2020 so far is -84 in Nuiqsut; temp -53 with a S wind at 12 mph on 2/7/2020. The blog below said -82, but the METARs confirm -84. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2020/02/north-slope-cold.html

Even worse on temps here, and I am further north (far NW suburbs of Chicago). We haven’t been below zero yet, and only 3 days with lows in the single digits.

Absolutely...sorry about that. Just hard to fathom. Beyond words at this point...

And to others - it’s not meant to be preachy or a soapbox. You’re completely missing the point, and my intent. Just complaining about our climo, hoping others will empathize and join me. That’s how it is for a winter weenie. We all like winter, that’s why we’re here. Some of us get more sad and frustrated than others when we don’t have it. It’s a very emotional thing. In northern WI a couple weeks ago, the locals were talking about the weenie roasts on the frozen lakes. The lakes are always frozen this time of year and there is always snow hanging from the black spruce trees. That’s where it’s at, very simple.

I hear you, but it’s all relative to what you hope for. Yes, 2013-14 actually felt like winter...but that’s how winter should be. Cold and snow. But December 2013 wasn’t that great and there was no White Christmas, so it could have been better. But overall, I agree it was pretty good. The only cool summer I remember here was 1992. No argument there. But 98 out of 100 summers have a majority of days that are 80F+ from June 10th through September 10th. In other words, it consistently feels like summer during summer. I don’t wake up on August 1st and think that it might be a cold day. But February 1st is never guaranteed to be a wintry day. Not many winters here are consistently wintry. We are all smart people; we know this, but no one wants to admit it. “Wintry” means a high temp in the 20s or colder with 2+ inches of snow cover. For people who love severe weather, I imagine that Chicagoland is not the best place to be either, due to the cool lake messing things up in the spring. Occasional bouts of severe weather, but you can’t count on it. And in the open plains, the visibility and openness is much better, to actually see, enjoy, and/or chase the storms. I guess I’m the andyhb of winter weather. Can you believe it - I made a post about a non winter aspect of weather.

Not that anyone cares about what winter should be...but it has been a complete joke in pretty much the entire Lower 48, with respect to getting more than 1-2 days of cold weather at a time. I am reading in other sub-forums how there is no cold weather too; it's happening everywhere, not just here. Usually, when one region is mild, another is cold...but not this year. At ORD, in the 75-day period since November 15th, there have only been 11 days with a low temp colder than 19F. That is ridiculous. Even in our horribly bad climo, you'd expect about 50% of the days to have low temps colder than 19F...and it "should" be 75+% if we had anywhere close to a decent winter climate. Most winter mornings should be colder than 19F. Not 11 out of 75. It's not even in the same ballpark compared to what it should be. And, only 2 days in the single digits. No sub-zero days. Where is the cold air? Where are the clippers? I don't think there has been one clipper all winter, for anyone in our subforum...or in the entire Lower 48. Am I missing something?? What is happening?? I know someone will chime in and say "we've had winters like this before"...but that only makes it worse, because it reinforces how bad our climo is. I which people would stop with the sugar-coating. It's ok to admit that something is bad. We should all unite in our complaining, as opposed to arguing whose snowfall call is right 5 days out. The result is what matters...and if it's not winter-like, who cares.

Yep. I started reading through the late January 2019 arctic outbreak thread...good stuff.

Thank you Yes...good for John! It will happen soon. After many years of putting up with me, my wife is on board too. It’s not even about subzero temps and crazy winds and 3 feet of snow on the ground. Just want to wake up in the morning, relax with a cup of coffee, and know that every morning during the heart of winter you can look outside at the wintry landscape, then take part in it. You should be able to count in winter during DJF...or at least Dec 15th to Feb 15th...year after year. Just like we count on summer in JJA. All of my complaints on this board come from this passion...it’s not personal. No hard feelings to anyone.

I get your point...but it's probably more accurate to say 10/30 - 11/13 (2 weeks) was good, then 11/14 - 1/14 (9 weeks) was horrendous. Not exactly an equal balance...and of course the 2-week good period is a distant memory since snowpack retention is poor during the first two weeks of November. I know you know that...but timing matters too.

I just don't understand how this winter could be thought of as anything close to what winter should be. I know these characterizations tend to be IMBY-focused...but IMBY in NE IL, we've had 3 separate snowfalls of 0.3" to 1.5" since November 15th...amounting to about 4" total (!!!)...and each one stayed on the ground for 1-2 days. And, several days in the 40s and 50s. That's winter?? Of course there is still time for things to change...but it has been brutal so far. One of the worst 11/15 - 1/15 periods in the past 20 years. Not sure how else to sugar coat it...

It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now. How is this not shocking? As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum. Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights????? They have vanished. Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F. And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening??? Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******.

I suppose optimism is good and well-needed...but I wouldn't go that far. Very limited supply of cold air in general, which means that we're depending on a "thread the needle" with most/all of the possible systems. Not a good situation to be in even in Dec or Feb, much less January. Unfortunately, this current disaster of a pattern over the past 6 weeks (!!) has reset our standards to a new low.