beavis1729

Yep, understood. Of course there is no "one size fits all" rule, and it depends on the season and the antecedent conditions on a given day. But, anecdotally, I'd suggest the average UHI impact is a bit greater than what you noted. This morning, RFD (72F) was 2F warmer than "baseline"...namely FEP, a very small nearby rural town that dropped to 70F. Overall, from what I've seen over the years, RFD will check in at 1-2F warmer than nearby rural areas. Probably 2-3F higher at night (especially in winter), and 0.5-2F higher during the day. Just estimates, of course...but significantly greater than 1/3 of a degree F. Another example - the MSP metro area (3.5 million population) has a huge UHI problem...amplified further in the winter when the rural vs. urban differences in radiational cooling become apparent. I've seen many winter mornings were it will be -10F to -15F in areas outside (and even south of) the metro area, but MSP will be much warmer, around 0F. And, sometimes, it can come down to the very microscale detail of the exact location of the ob site. You always hear about the joke of DCA (one of the Washington DC airports), where the thermometer is right on the tarmac and right by the river. DCA also records much lower snowfall totals due to this. Same idea with BDL - Bridgeport CT. I know airports have historically been a convenient place to record wx obs, but it's probably not the most representative when jet exhaust and concrete can be even more intense than a "regular" urban area. Not meaning to argue about this, of course...just a good discussion. Back to the heat wave - looks like ORD hit 94/70/100 today. While I'm on a roll with pet peeves, it's still shocking to me how there have been no heat advisories in the Chicago metro area all week, when we've had 5 (?) consecutive 90+ days...especially noting that it's late August and can be considered "out of season" heat. I would even suggest there should've been heat advisories if this were June/July...but especially for late August. A heat index of 95+ is pretty miserable, especially with full sun, the cumulative effects day after day, and little nighttime relief in the metro/urban core (heck, ORD had a low of 78 this AM...and it was probably similar in Chicago proper with 2.8 million people). But I digress...

I agree that it has been surprising how high the DPs have been around here during this heat wave, even with the very dry ground. That has made it challenging to predict the high temps each day. The dew never dropped below 61, and was 65-70 most of the time. Maybe it's because the air is advecting over wetter ground/corn fields...or that late August is generally a climatologically humid time of year, especially if the air isn't coming directly out of Canada?

Ties the daily record high min, set in 2018 (!). Also, there has never been a min of 79+ after today's date. Normal low at ORD is 61, although that's also been a joke the past 5-10 summers, as ORD seems to have above-average mins in summer on 75%+ of days. It's like grade inflation; "every day is above average". I know it's beating a dead horse, but the UHI at ORD is crazy and just keeps getting worse. RFD, not exactly a rural paradise, had a low of 72 this morning. Same air mass, yet 6 degrees cooler than ORD. FEP hit 70. There was no easterly component to the wind, so the warm lake had nothing to do with it. UHIs are so unfortunate anywhere they occur, as it's indisputable evidence that humans are messing with nature.

Agree...and the Midwest does too, of course mostly driven by latitude instead of distance to the coast...although there's some relative temperature moderation immediately downwind of the Great Lakes. As an example...STL hardly has winter, I-80 in Illinois is very limited winter, Chicago is in between (where you can run a good 2-3 week stretch of winter sometimes, with crap for the other 9 weeks), Madison WI is decent, then central WI northward is much more consistent winter. The gradient between 40N and 44N in the Midwest is pretty staggering in a typical winter; not too many miles as the crow flies. If you drew a contour map of Average Annual Snow Depth Days (SDDs) in the Midwest, you'd see a crazy gradient by latitude. Normal high temps in January range from around 40F at 40N, to 22F at 44N. Apologies if this is going a bit off-topic. Nice to be in this sub-forum with the banter and good discussion about winter...keep it up.

There's some haze/smoke in the area from nearby wildfires. So, looks like it may only (!) hit 127-128. At 2 PM local time, it's 125/47, heat index 118.

Brian D, keep us posted with obs this fall and winter, it’s great to have a new poster from the far north.

Interesting...the greater than normal disparity between ORD and MKE this season is probably because most of ORD’s 90+ days have been 90-92, combined with UHI. Where I am in SW Lake County IL, we’ve only had 12 days of 90+. A lot of days 87-89.

A bit dry in Las Vegas...it's currently 105/8, RH 3%.

Just brutal conditions in Phoenix the past few days. This is the time of year where the peak heat of summer is still lingering, with the monsoon moisture in play too. Yesterday it was 116/52 at 4pm. That’s a pretty high dew point, given the temperature. At 1am this morning, it was 101/63, and the low temp this morning was 93. Combined with the urban jungle landscape...yuck, yuck, and more yuck.

Hard to believe there is no heat advisory in the LOT CWA. I know there are certain criteria that technically need to be met, but it’s brutal out there. If no heat advisory on a day like today, I can’t imagine many other days that would warrant it. Maybe the criteria needs to be reviewed. Maybe I am less tolerant of the heat than others, but a HI of 100 should warrant an advisory, especially with warm overnight mins. I would even say a HI of 95 should suffice, but that’s just me.

Langdon ND (near the Canadian border) is currently 86/81/102. Has the dewpoint ever hit 81 this far north in the US before?

Yeah, that May 1977 warm spell was impressive. 1976-77 was an interesting time. Besides being in the early stages of disco fever , the winter was extremely cold here, followed by a record warm spring...and a snowstorm in New England on May 9-10.

What are the Top 5 years for # of 90+ days in Chicago? I think 1988 and 2012 were #1 and #2 (?).

Overnight lows are too warm for best climo.

But it shouldn’t be political, and it shouldn’t need to be voted on. It should be a position that 98%+ of people align on. How could someone be against policies which benefit the environment and the greater good/community, and stops people from fighting one another? These should be obvious “table stakes” policies that every government adopts, with only the exact details in question. I really am not intending to be argumentative, or to make anything personal. I just don’t understand why people don’t focus on the greater good. Ironically, this approach probably benefits individuals too, more often than not. The current state of affairs in our country, both politically and socially, is cripplingly unhealthy. It’s very sad and must be improved. I guess I’m naive...

When saying that unabridged capitalism always works...who does it work for? It works for people who are more educated, have better skills, and build up money early in their lives to then take advantage of compound interest. I happen to be one of those people, and I suppose I should be thankful in some way...but does it work for the environment? No. Does it work for people with fewer skills and lower education? No. Capitalism with careful, consistent, and very strong environmental regulation with a big safety net is the happy medium, as it balances the preservation of freedom, protecting nature, and stops people from competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism is one reason we have such a toxic political culture and toxic social media, and horribly inequitable health care outcomes. People’s value should not be tied to their economic value. What is the societal and cultural benefit of a high GDP? Everyone assumes this is the ultimate goal...but why? I would trade a huge portion of the country’s GDP for a bit more of the “good” things that I listed above, spread across everyone. We have to stop fighting and competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism encourages this fighting, and it just isn’t good. Maybe it was good in the industrial revolution, but now other countries want to industrialize like the US did...but the global environment can’t handle it. I am not talking about climate change specifically; I am talking about air pollution, ocean pollution and the great Pacific Ocean garbage patch, plastics, habitat destruction, etc. These are the serious conversations that world leaders need to have...instead of encouraging policies which grow the economy at all costs. In order to strike the right balance, personal freedoms need to be restricted somewhat. Of course people don’t like that...and I understand that...but we have to concede that my and your individual best interest doesn’t always align with the earth’s best interest. Why are we so afraid to have this conversation at a national and global level??

I appreciate this conversation, as you have hit on a topic that is crucial to the future of our country and the world. Specifically, “individual freedom” vs. “the collective good”. In the bigger picture outside of the pandemic, I think it’s critical for people to get past the concept of “everyone is entitled to act certain ways, and that’s ok”. No, it’s not ok, in a lot of situations. And it’s unfortunate that those situations probably need to devalue personal freedom and choice...but if it’s for the greater good, I wish people were more accepting. Personal freedom can’t be used an excuse to stop good collective policies from being implemented. Two examples come to mind immediately: the environment and health care. Personal freedom must be reduced in order to protect the environment. And that is how it should be and must be. No one should have the right to start a business that creates too much pollution, regardless of how much “demand” there is for a product. Even if people disagree, the actions and policies of the government must align with this, or we are all screwed. We should significantly increase regulations protecting the environment, and reduce or eliminate all other regulations. A good compromise. Why do humans think we can control and mess up the environment, at the expense of other living things (including our fellow humans)? For health care, unfortunately some people are more unhealthy than others and therefore burden the system more than others. But, for the collective good, we should all chip in and pay the same for health care, if that approach leads to better outcomes for more people. I know there is an incentive to be healthier, in order to live a better life. But that should be a personal incentive, not an economic incentive. It is unfortunate that, in this country, everything comes down to money. Humans should not be thought of as consumers. There has to be a better approach, where every individual is valued regardless of their wealth. Of course this approach would likely lead to lower aggregate wealth and prosperity vs. today...but it can’t be much worse than the toxic culture we have today, where everyone fights against each other to claim their share by exploiting others. It’s just wrong. Masks vs. vaccines is even an interesting sub-debate. Personally, I think mandated vaccines crosses the line, as it violates individual freedom too much...because you are injecting a drug into your body. But masks are different, because they are not invasive. Everything is a balance. Personal freedom should be one consideration, but not THE consideration.

Siberia is also having a prolonged heat wave. Verkhoyansk, north of the arctic circle, may be well into the 90s over the next few days. I think their June monthly record high is 93. Verkhoyansk has the largest temperature range on Earth, 189 degrees. All time high 99, all time low -90.

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth. Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June. Normals are only around 70/50. Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps: 189 degrees (99F to -90F).

From NWS GRB: .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Quiet conditions return to the region over the course of the short term forecast as high pressure establishes itself and temperatures drop well below normal. Skies will clear out tonight as the surface high drops southwards over the Great lakes from Canada. CAA will be in full force tonight, bringing well below normal temperatures and drier air. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s, which has prompted the frost advisory for northern Wisconsin tonight. It`s note worthy that the high pressure center will be near 1033mb during this time, which is near record, just a few days after portions of Wisconsin observed record low pressure from the remnants of Cristobal. Saturday, skies will remain mostly clear with cool and dry air in place. Highs will head into the middle to upper 60s, possibly getting back up into the lower 70s.

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice. However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole. It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons. This should not need to happen. It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over. In other words, incentivize people to stay home. Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society. And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process. Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils. As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits. Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country. We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life. The government deserves a ton of blame for this. Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

My view would be that, in general, Spring is the period for which at least a certain percentage (say 70%) of observed high temps throughout the climate record on each day within the period are between 40F and 70F. For Chicago, this would probably be March 15 to May 31? Places in the Midwest away from the lake at a similar latitude might have a shorter Spring based on this methodology, say March 15 - May 15. Then, for a particular year, you could probably apply this same technique to see how much shorter or longer Spring is vs. a typical year...but of course there will inherently be more variability in one year vs. a collection of years. An interesting statistical question. Also, there was an interesting post on the blog linked below, trying to define seasons. I believe it used a baseline of the warmest 90 days of the year to be summer, based on prior (cooler) normals...then looked at current (warmer) normals, and determined the new "length of summer" based on the old normals' warmest 90 days. For Chicago, based on this methodology, summer is now 97 days. https://us-climate.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-summer-longer.html