beavis1729

I’m just tired of this. That’s all. Some people are content with winter in other ways (short days, cloudier, flakes in the air, potential for big storms even without snowpack retention, cold and dry with iced over lakes), etc. Everyone is different, no problem. But people need to be able to vent on a winter weather board. That’s how it goes in these parts. We are among friends and weenies. It’s not a big deal. The current pattern is horrible for everyone. It’s just reality. I don’t like accepting reality when it sucks. Hop on board the weenie train...everyone is welcome. Jebwalks for all.

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible. For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it. It's bad enough here. Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec. It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun. But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here. That's crazy. So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual. That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us. In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal. If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok. Precip is fine; temps are the killer. Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20. That's not good. Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter. Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual. Unfortunately, they are. When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error. In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May. In JJA, we know it's going to be warm. Just want the same idea for cold in DJF. Seasons in seasons. It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke. What's the point?? The shorter days don't even matter. It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year? No. There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy. Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb. But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us. Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient. In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20. But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies. We should all just stop pretending. We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why?? Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter. It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together. It should just come together because it's winter. Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it. Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes. Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency. But it's not meant to be. Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

Yep. I agree it's good to be patient and not throw in the towel yet...but we need to let people be upset and vent if they need to. The current pattern out to Dec 10 is horrible...no one needs to sugar coat it.

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already. Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all. By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL. That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there. But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days". I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter. Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board. If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

^ Unfortunately, the above map is misleading...as it doesn't capture the current tenor of the season. Most, if not all, of the snowfall in the US occurred prior to mid-Nov and has since melted...and there doesn't look to be significant snow anywhere in the next 10 days. An awful spot to be in for winter lovers, as we head into the shortest days of the year and the holidays. We need to build up the snowpack and cold up north, and it's not happening now. Total snowfall is not very useful when considering whether a winter is good/bad. Snow depth days (SDDs) are a better measure, i.e., the cumulative seasonal total of each day's snow cover (in inches), added together.

Correct. It doesn't just look hideous for Dec 1-15 imby, but for the entire Midwest. No snow cover building up north, no cold up north, 552 thicknesses in southern Canada, temps above freezing nearly every day at INL. It should be the depths of winter up there, highs near 20, lows near 0...or even colder. Where is the cold air? Some signs of a -EPO building on the EPS, but too far out to be excited about. And I'll again bring up my main point that we shouldn't need 5,000 indices to line up right to get snow and cold in DJF. It should just happen because the calendar says DJF. The days are so short right now, and we're wasting it on boring crappy dry days with highs 35-45 and lows in the 20s. That's not winter.

Need to wait for 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Hopefully there will be a continuation of the good phasing trends in the animation that Alek posted yesterday. If not, it’s probably game over.

I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar. In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"? No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". Seasons in seasons. DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists. The coldest temp of the season so far at ORD is only 28...and it will probably stay that way through the end of November. The cruel joke of a November continues...and the joke is on us. Patience is wearing thin...things better change by 12/1 at the very latest. In good winters, there seems to be a persistent changing of the guard in mid-late November...where all signs of fall are erased and it actually feels like winter, with the very short days. I don't just mean one snowfall that melts in 2 days...I mean an abrupt change to a winter-like feel that has staying power. But right now, perpetual Fall continues...it's just not good. Hard to get into the holiday spirit.

So Laramie WY hit -26 this morning, by far an October record low and the coldest on record so early in the season. Normal low is 25, so a departure of -51.

Agree, as temps in these locations don’t follow a normal distribution. Most days are slightly above the mean, with relatively few days that are much colder than the mean in order to balance things out.

Another interesting component of this arctic outbreak is the dry air over the southwest. Las Vegas was 59/-15 this afternoon with very dry NE winds, RH 4%. The record dry streak continues in Las Vegas. 189 days and counting since the last measurable rainfall on 4/20/2020.

Hopefully we get an airmass like that in our area in the heart of winter, like the 1995-96 La Niña. The infamous -60 in Tower, MN...and -40s in parts of IA.

High temp today in Sidney NE was 14. Normal high is 61; departure -47. High temp today in Laramie WY was 6. Normal high is 52; departure -46. High temp today in Denver CO was 16. Normal high is 61; departure -45. High temp today in Dalhart TX was 24. Normal high is 68; departure of -44. High temp today in Cheyenne WY was 14. Normal high is 55; departure -41.

This same airmass has led to an Ice Storm Warning for OKC...in October: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Norman OK 828 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...Periods of Freezing Rain and Sleet Expected This Morning Through Early Wednesday... OKZ007-008-012-013-016>020-022>027-033>038-TXZ083>085-262200- /O.UPG.KOUN.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201027T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOUN.IS.W.0001.201026T1328Z-201028T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0004.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/ Grant-Kay-Garfield-Noble-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne- Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa- Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger- Including the cities of Medford, Pond Creek, Lamont, Wakita, Ponca City, Blackwell, Enid, Perry, Weatherford, Clinton, Watonga, Geary, Okeene, Kingfisher, Hennessey, Okarche, Guthrie, Stillwater, Cordell, Burns Flat, Sentinel, Anadarko, Hinton, Yukon, Concho, El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud, Prague, Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Hollis, Mangum, Granite, Hobart, Snyder, Altus, Frederick, Lawton, Quanah, Crowell, and Vernon 828 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of significant icing through at least Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations up to one-half inch will be common, with some locations possibly receiving upwards of one inch. There will also be accumulations of sleet. * WHERE...Central, northern, and southwest Oklahoma and western and northern Texas. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and widespread tree damage due to the ice. Travel could become very dangerous.

Some shockingly cold temps for October are occurring, or will soon occur, in MT/WY/CO/NE. Laramie, WY may drop to -16, which would be the coldest temp on record so early in the season (October record low is -18 on 10/30/1993). Most impressive relative to climo may be Billings, MT. Tomorrow morning, it may hit 4...which would shatter the record low of 18 set in 1997. Monday morning may hit -2; the record low is 22 set in 1970. Breaking a daily record by 24 degrees...not bad. Records in Billings go back to 1934. There has only been one sub-zero October day in Billings in recorded history (-7 on 10/30/1991).

But it shouldn’t be political, and it shouldn’t need to be voted on. It should be a position that 98%+ of people align on. How could someone be against policies which benefit the environment and the greater good/community, and stops people from fighting one another? These should be obvious “table stakes” policies that every government adopts, with only the exact details in question. I really am not intending to be argumentative, or to make anything personal. I just don’t understand why people don’t focus on the greater good. Ironically, this approach probably benefits individuals too, more often than not. The current state of affairs in our country, both politically and socially, is cripplingly unhealthy. It’s very sad and must be improved. I guess I’m naive...

When saying that unabridged capitalism always works...who does it work for? It works for people who are more educated, have better skills, and build up money early in their lives to then take advantage of compound interest. I happen to be one of those people, and I suppose I should be thankful in some way...but does it work for the environment? No. Does it work for people with fewer skills and lower education? No. Capitalism with careful, consistent, and very strong environmental regulation with a big safety net is the happy medium, as it balances the preservation of freedom, protecting nature, and stops people from competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism is one reason we have such a toxic political culture and toxic social media, and horribly inequitable health care outcomes. People’s value should not be tied to their economic value. What is the societal and cultural benefit of a high GDP? Everyone assumes this is the ultimate goal...but why? I would trade a huge portion of the country’s GDP for a bit more of the “good” things that I listed above, spread across everyone. We have to stop fighting and competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism encourages this fighting, and it just isn’t good. Maybe it was good in the industrial revolution, but now other countries want to industrialize like the US did...but the global environment can’t handle it. I am not talking about climate change specifically; I am talking about air pollution, ocean pollution and the great Pacific Ocean garbage patch, plastics, habitat destruction, etc. These are the serious conversations that world leaders need to have...instead of encouraging policies which grow the economy at all costs. In order to strike the right balance, personal freedoms need to be restricted somewhat. Of course people don’t like that...and I understand that...but we have to concede that my and your individual best interest doesn’t always align with the earth’s best interest. Why are we so afraid to have this conversation at a national and global level??

I appreciate this conversation, as you have hit on a topic that is crucial to the future of our country and the world. Specifically, “individual freedom” vs. “the collective good”. In the bigger picture outside of the pandemic, I think it’s critical for people to get past the concept of “everyone is entitled to act certain ways, and that’s ok”. No, it’s not ok, in a lot of situations. And it’s unfortunate that those situations probably need to devalue personal freedom and choice...but if it’s for the greater good, I wish people were more accepting. Personal freedom can’t be used an excuse to stop good collective policies from being implemented. Two examples come to mind immediately: the environment and health care. Personal freedom must be reduced in order to protect the environment. And that is how it should be and must be. No one should have the right to start a business that creates too much pollution, regardless of how much “demand” there is for a product. Even if people disagree, the actions and policies of the government must align with this, or we are all screwed. We should significantly increase regulations protecting the environment, and reduce or eliminate all other regulations. A good compromise. Why do humans think we can control and mess up the environment, at the expense of other living things (including our fellow humans)? For health care, unfortunately some people are more unhealthy than others and therefore burden the system more than others. But, for the collective good, we should all chip in and pay the same for health care, if that approach leads to better outcomes for more people. I know there is an incentive to be healthier, in order to live a better life. But that should be a personal incentive, not an economic incentive. It is unfortunate that, in this country, everything comes down to money. Humans should not be thought of as consumers. There has to be a better approach, where every individual is valued regardless of their wealth. Of course this approach would likely lead to lower aggregate wealth and prosperity vs. today...but it can’t be much worse than the toxic culture we have today, where everyone fights against each other to claim their share by exploiting others. It’s just wrong. Masks vs. vaccines is even an interesting sub-debate. Personally, I think mandated vaccines crosses the line, as it violates individual freedom too much...because you are injecting a drug into your body. But masks are different, because they are not invasive. Everything is a balance. Personal freedom should be one consideration, but not THE consideration.

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth. Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June. Normals are only around 70/50. Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps: 189 degrees (99F to -90F).

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice. However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole. It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons. This should not need to happen. It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over. In other words, incentivize people to stay home. Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society. And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process. Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils. As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits. Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country. We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life. The government deserves a ton of blame for this. Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

Of course (unfortunately) it’s hard to argue with what you’re saying, based on how our country is currently structured ..but my view all along is that the pandemic is exposing the toxic “every man for themselves” culture in the US, where people are pitted against each other for the sake of “the economy”, against the greater good. Sure, it leads to a greater GDP and a lot of wealth...but people and small community/local businesses shouldn’t need to make the difficult decision to risk getting sick for the sake of the economy. We must have something good come out of this pandemic, for the cohesiveness of our society and so people look out for each other and look out for the greater good. For example, paid sick leave, better value health care, paid paternal and maternal leave, etc. We must stop fighting ruthlessly against each other, and stop the idea that we must out do someone else in order to better ourselves. The American individualist ideal is tiresome and, combined with the toxicity of technology and social media, has led us to where we are today.

I can definitely vouch for this airmass, even on the far west end of the arctic lobe here in the NW suburbs of Chicago. Temps were only in the low 40s yesterday afternoon with nearly full sunshine. Didn’t quite set a record low max, but it’s nearly impossible to be that cold in peak heating around here on May 8th unless complete cloud cover and/or heavy rain is occurring. Temps that low with an early August sun angle speaks to the insanely cold airmass for the time of year. Normal high is 68. A few spots in N IL dropped to the mid 20s this morning, probably close to all time late season cold...but there aren’t many long lasting PORs besides ORD and RFD, which only dropped to 31 and 29 respectively due to UHI influences.