beavis1729

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible. For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it. It's bad enough here. Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec. It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun. But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here. That's crazy. So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual. That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us. In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal. If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok. Precip is fine; temps are the killer. Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20. That's not good. Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter. Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual. Unfortunately, they are. When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error. In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May. In JJA, we know it's going to be warm. Just want the same idea for cold in DJF. Seasons in seasons. It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke. What's the point?? The shorter days don't even matter. It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year? No. There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy. Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb. But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us. Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient. In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20. But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies. We should all just stop pretending. We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why?? Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter. It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together. It should just come together because it's winter. Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it. Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes. Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency. But it's not meant to be. Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

Yep. I agree it's good to be patient and not throw in the towel yet...but we need to let people be upset and vent if they need to. The current pattern out to Dec 10 is horrible...no one needs to sugar coat it.

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already. Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all. By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL. That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there. But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days". I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter. Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board. If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

^ Unfortunately, the above map is misleading...as it doesn't capture the current tenor of the season. Most, if not all, of the snowfall in the US occurred prior to mid-Nov and has since melted...and there doesn't look to be significant snow anywhere in the next 10 days. An awful spot to be in for winter lovers, as we head into the shortest days of the year and the holidays. We need to build up the snowpack and cold up north, and it's not happening now. Total snowfall is not very useful when considering whether a winter is good/bad. Snow depth days (SDDs) are a better measure, i.e., the cumulative seasonal total of each day's snow cover (in inches), added together.

Correct. It doesn't just look hideous for Dec 1-15 imby, but for the entire Midwest. No snow cover building up north, no cold up north, 552 thicknesses in southern Canada, temps above freezing nearly every day at INL. It should be the depths of winter up there, highs near 20, lows near 0...or even colder. Where is the cold air? Some signs of a -EPO building on the EPS, but too far out to be excited about. And I'll again bring up my main point that we shouldn't need 5,000 indices to line up right to get snow and cold in DJF. It should just happen because the calendar says DJF. The days are so short right now, and we're wasting it on boring crappy dry days with highs 35-45 and lows in the 20s. That's not winter.

Same to you Hoosier. It has been a traumatic year. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and hope you all stay healthy through the holiday season.

Need to wait for 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Hopefully there will be a continuation of the good phasing trends in the animation that Alek posted yesterday. If not, it’s probably game over.

I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar. In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"? No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". Seasons in seasons. DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists. The coldest temp of the season so far at ORD is only 28...and it will probably stay that way through the end of November. The cruel joke of a November continues...and the joke is on us. Patience is wearing thin...things better change by 12/1 at the very latest. In good winters, there seems to be a persistent changing of the guard in mid-late November...where all signs of fall are erased and it actually feels like winter, with the very short days. I don't just mean one snowfall that melts in 2 days...I mean an abrupt change to a winter-like feel that has staying power. But right now, perpetual Fall continues...it's just not good. Hard to get into the holiday spirit.

Broke the daily record high by 12 degrees...and the previous record was from 1948. Yikes. Normal high is 41.

Yeah, fine for now...but this warm and sunny crap better stop by November 20th. If I wanted nice weather when the days are short, I'd move to San Diego.

This is only the 2nd warmest temp in Chicago for so late in the season...which is hard to believe. It was 78 on 11/14/1971.

Wow, 75 in Duluth on November 6th? That’s ridiculous. Normal high is 41.

Coldest temp of the season IMBY this morning, 27. ORD hit 31, tying for the coldest of the season so far.

Right, I agree...which is why I think the current system of DST during spring and summer works well. It makes our June sunrise around 5:15 AM which, while still too early in my opinion, is at least tolerable.

Yes, of course it doesn't change anything from a technical standpoint...but it's more psychological than anything. And that matters to some people. Not saying you need to share the same point of view...but for me, it's very important to have an "early" sunset in winter. If it got dark at 5:20 instead of 4:20 in mid-December, then of course it has no impact on the weather. or total daylight...but it would bother me a lot. It just "feels" more like deep dark Currier and Ives winter with an earlier sunset...because that's what I grew up with. Yes, time is just a construct...but many people have emotional connections to things like this, because they form memories. I would be very upset if our sunset was after 5:00 in mid-December. Total daylight is about 9 hours 6 minutes on the winter solstice here (7:13 AM - 4:19 PM CST). If we had daylight savings all year, it would be 8:13 AM - 5:19 PM...yuck.

I actually like the time change, at least IMBY on the far eastern end of the central time zone. Of course it would be simpler logistically to keep the same time throughout the year...but I take a certain comfort in seeing the very early sunsets in Nov/Dec (before 5 PM). If we were on daylight savings all year, these sunsets would be after 5 PM, and it wouldn't feel like winter. On the other hand, if we switched to standard time all year, June sunsets would only be around 7:30 PM (which wouldn't feel like the "long summer days"), instead of the current 8:30 PM. Just my 2 cents, but of course personal preference depends on latitude, location within the time zone, etc.

So Laramie WY hit -26 this morning, by far an October record low and the coldest on record so early in the season. Normal low is 25, so a departure of -51.

Agree, as temps in these locations don’t follow a normal distribution. Most days are slightly above the mean, with relatively few days that are much colder than the mean in order to balance things out.

Interesting, and very surprising.

Another interesting component of this arctic outbreak is the dry air over the southwest. Las Vegas was 59/-15 this afternoon with very dry NE winds, RH 4%. The record dry streak continues in Las Vegas. 189 days and counting since the last measurable rainfall on 4/20/2020.

Hopefully we get an airmass like that in our area in the heart of winter, like the 1995-96 La Niña. The infamous -60 in Tower, MN...and -40s in parts of IA.

High temp today in Sidney NE was 14. Normal high is 61; departure -47. High temp today in Laramie WY was 6. Normal high is 52; departure -46. High temp today in Denver CO was 16. Normal high is 61; departure -45. High temp today in Dalhart TX was 24. Normal high is 68; departure of -44. High temp today in Cheyenne WY was 14. Normal high is 55; departure -41.

This same airmass has led to an Ice Storm Warning for OKC...in October: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Norman OK 828 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...Periods of Freezing Rain and Sleet Expected This Morning Through Early Wednesday... OKZ007-008-012-013-016>020-022>027-033>038-TXZ083>085-262200- /O.UPG.KOUN.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201027T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOUN.IS.W.0001.201026T1328Z-201028T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0004.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/ Grant-Kay-Garfield-Noble-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne- Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa- Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger- Including the cities of Medford, Pond Creek, Lamont, Wakita, Ponca City, Blackwell, Enid, Perry, Weatherford, Clinton, Watonga, Geary, Okeene, Kingfisher, Hennessey, Okarche, Guthrie, Stillwater, Cordell, Burns Flat, Sentinel, Anadarko, Hinton, Yukon, Concho, El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud, Prague, Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Hollis, Mangum, Granite, Hobart, Snyder, Altus, Frederick, Lawton, Quanah, Crowell, and Vernon 828 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of significant icing through at least Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations up to one-half inch will be common, with some locations possibly receiving upwards of one inch. There will also be accumulations of sleet. * WHERE...Central, northern, and southwest Oklahoma and western and northern Texas. * WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and widespread tree damage due to the ice. Travel could become very dangerous.