beavis1729

What are the Top 5 years for # of 90+ days in Chicago? I think 1988 and 2012 were #1 and #2 (?).

Overnight lows are too warm for best climo.

But it shouldn’t be political, and it shouldn’t need to be voted on. It should be a position that 98%+ of people align on. How could someone be against policies which benefit the environment and the greater good/community, and stops people from fighting one another? These should be obvious “table stakes” policies that every government adopts, with only the exact details in question. I really am not intending to be argumentative, or to make anything personal. I just don’t understand why people don’t focus on the greater good. Ironically, this approach probably benefits individuals too, more often than not. The current state of affairs in our country, both politically and socially, is cripplingly unhealthy. It’s very sad and must be improved. I guess I’m naive...

When saying that unabridged capitalism always works...who does it work for? It works for people who are more educated, have better skills, and build up money early in their lives to then take advantage of compound interest. I happen to be one of those people, and I suppose I should be thankful in some way...but does it work for the environment? No. Does it work for people with fewer skills and lower education? No. Capitalism with careful, consistent, and very strong environmental regulation with a big safety net is the happy medium, as it balances the preservation of freedom, protecting nature, and stops people from competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism is one reason we have such a toxic political culture and toxic social media, and horribly inequitable health care outcomes. People’s value should not be tied to their economic value. What is the societal and cultural benefit of a high GDP? Everyone assumes this is the ultimate goal...but why? I would trade a huge portion of the country’s GDP for a bit more of the “good” things that I listed above, spread across everyone. We have to stop fighting and competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism encourages this fighting, and it just isn’t good. Maybe it was good in the industrial revolution, but now other countries want to industrialize like the US did...but the global environment can’t handle it. I am not talking about climate change specifically; I am talking about air pollution, ocean pollution and the great Pacific Ocean garbage patch, plastics, habitat destruction, etc. These are the serious conversations that world leaders need to have...instead of encouraging policies which grow the economy at all costs. In order to strike the right balance, personal freedoms need to be restricted somewhat. Of course people don’t like that...and I understand that...but we have to concede that my and your individual best interest doesn’t always align with the earth’s best interest. Why are we so afraid to have this conversation at a national and global level??

I appreciate this conversation, as you have hit on a topic that is crucial to the future of our country and the world. Specifically, “individual freedom” vs. “the collective good”. In the bigger picture outside of the pandemic, I think it’s critical for people to get past the concept of “everyone is entitled to act certain ways, and that’s ok”. No, it’s not ok, in a lot of situations. And it’s unfortunate that those situations probably need to devalue personal freedom and choice...but if it’s for the greater good, I wish people were more accepting. Personal freedom can’t be used an excuse to stop good collective policies from being implemented. Two examples come to mind immediately: the environment and health care. Personal freedom must be reduced in order to protect the environment. And that is how it should be and must be. No one should have the right to start a business that creates too much pollution, regardless of how much “demand” there is for a product. Even if people disagree, the actions and policies of the government must align with this, or we are all screwed. We should significantly increase regulations protecting the environment, and reduce or eliminate all other regulations. A good compromise. Why do humans think we can control and mess up the environment, at the expense of other living things (including our fellow humans)? For health care, unfortunately some people are more unhealthy than others and therefore burden the system more than others. But, for the collective good, we should all chip in and pay the same for health care, if that approach leads to better outcomes for more people. I know there is an incentive to be healthier, in order to live a better life. But that should be a personal incentive, not an economic incentive. It is unfortunate that, in this country, everything comes down to money. Humans should not be thought of as consumers. There has to be a better approach, where every individual is valued regardless of their wealth. Of course this approach would likely lead to lower aggregate wealth and prosperity vs. today...but it can’t be much worse than the toxic culture we have today, where everyone fights against each other to claim their share by exploiting others. It’s just wrong. Masks vs. vaccines is even an interesting sub-debate. Personally, I think mandated vaccines crosses the line, as it violates individual freedom too much...because you are injecting a drug into your body. But masks are different, because they are not invasive. Everything is a balance. Personal freedom should be one consideration, but not THE consideration.

Siberia is also having a prolonged heat wave. Verkhoyansk, north of the arctic circle, may be well into the 90s over the next few days. I think their June monthly record high is 93. Verkhoyansk has the largest temperature range on Earth, 189 degrees. All time high 99, all time low -90.

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth. Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June. Normals are only around 70/50. Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps: 189 degrees (99F to -90F).

From NWS GRB: .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Quiet conditions return to the region over the course of the short term forecast as high pressure establishes itself and temperatures drop well below normal. Skies will clear out tonight as the surface high drops southwards over the Great lakes from Canada. CAA will be in full force tonight, bringing well below normal temperatures and drier air. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s and possibly upper 20s, which has prompted the frost advisory for northern Wisconsin tonight. It`s note worthy that the high pressure center will be near 1033mb during this time, which is near record, just a few days after portions of Wisconsin observed record low pressure from the remnants of Cristobal. Saturday, skies will remain mostly clear with cool and dry air in place. Highs will head into the middle to upper 60s, possibly getting back up into the lower 70s.

While you continue to present your arguments very clearly, calmly, and rationally (which is to be admired), I still think your argument is a false dichotomy. I'm not even saying that a lockdown will ultimately be proven to be the correct choice. However, if the government/society deems it to be the optimal decision to have a lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the virus, then the businesses and people impacted by the economic repercussions should be protected and made whole. It should not be a choice for survival vs. having a job. It is completely mind-boggling how, in a country with so much wealth, we pit people against each other...mainly because of economic reasons. This should not need to happen. It would have been very easy to just give small businesses and all employees in certain industries X% (say 75%) of their revenue through YE 2020...just to tide people over. In other words, incentivize people to stay home. Normally, that's not ideal...but during a pandemic like this, we should be paying people to stay home if the government (which it has) deems that lockdowns are needed for the good of society. And I mean direct payments...not UE benefits which can be exploited and manipulated and take a lot of time to process. Yes, there would probably be some inflationary/productivity consequences of that down the road...but it seems like the lesser of two evils. As an example of how ruthless our capitalistic society is, one of my neighbors is being worked to the bone right now, as the employer is hoping she will quit...and therefore wouldn't be able to access unemployment benefits. Completely unethical and immoral...yet these things go on every day in this country. We should not have a situation that causes businesses to make these decisions that have no regard for human life. The government deserves a ton of blame for this. Not for the lockdowns themselves, but for the lack of empathy and the lack of a coherent plan to make people whole...so that they wouldn't feel like they have to choose between life and a job.

My view would be that, in general, Spring is the period for which at least a certain percentage (say 70%) of observed high temps throughout the climate record on each day within the period are between 40F and 70F. For Chicago, this would probably be March 15 to May 31? Places in the Midwest away from the lake at a similar latitude might have a shorter Spring based on this methodology, say March 15 - May 15. Then, for a particular year, you could probably apply this same technique to see how much shorter or longer Spring is vs. a typical year...but of course there will inherently be more variability in one year vs. a collection of years. An interesting statistical question. Also, there was an interesting post on the blog linked below, trying to define seasons. I believe it used a baseline of the warmest 90 days of the year to be summer, based on prior (cooler) normals...then looked at current (warmer) normals, and determined the new "length of summer" based on the old normals' warmest 90 days. For Chicago, based on this methodology, summer is now 97 days. https://us-climate.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-summer-longer.html

Of course (unfortunately) it’s hard to argue with what you’re saying, based on how our country is currently structured ..but my view all along is that the pandemic is exposing the toxic “every man for themselves” culture in the US, where people are pitted against each other for the sake of “the economy”, against the greater good. Sure, it leads to a greater GDP and a lot of wealth...but people and small community/local businesses shouldn’t need to make the difficult decision to risk getting sick for the sake of the economy. We must have something good come out of this pandemic, for the cohesiveness of our society and so people look out for each other and look out for the greater good. For example, paid sick leave, better value health care, paid paternal and maternal leave, etc. We must stop fighting ruthlessly against each other, and stop the idea that we must out do someone else in order to better ourselves. The American individualist ideal is tiresome and, combined with the toxicity of technology and social media, has led us to where we are today.

Cromartie?

At ORD, the normal high for today is still only 71, and at MKE it’s only 66. Highs at MKE yesterday and today were only 54 and 53, respectively. I know you’re further west...but the great lakes influence doesn’t really go away here until early June, at which point average highs at ORD are more in line with areas in the Midwest away from the lakes. Just last year, ORD had the following high temps in May: 53 on May 11th 52 on May 12th 57 on May 20th 54 on May 21st And in May 2018, even with the hot end of the month, ORD had highs of 52, 50, 55 on May 11th, 12th, and 20th respectively. The point is that May days can be quite chilly around here, compared to what many “expect”.

Yeah...partly because many of the daily records (especially lows) during this cold spell at ORD and RFD happened to be colder outliers compared to the surrounding days. And, it didn’t help that it was mostly sunny on Saturday (in May, it’s almost impossible to have cold daytime temps with the sun out)...and that the Sunday precip happened to fall during peak heating, precluding any measurable snowfall amounts despite the extremely cold airmass. In other words, bad timing. If there were “airmass records”, I imagine ORD would have set some new records...

Current temps: ORD: 37 Fairbanks AK: 79

Mixing with snow now here in the heavier bursts, temp 37. Crazy for 3PM on May 10.

I can definitely vouch for this airmass, even on the far west end of the arctic lobe here in the NW suburbs of Chicago. Temps were only in the low 40s yesterday afternoon with nearly full sunshine. Didn’t quite set a record low max, but it’s nearly impossible to be that cold in peak heating around here on May 8th unless complete cloud cover and/or heavy rain is occurring. Temps that low with an early August sun angle speaks to the insanely cold airmass for the time of year. Normal high is 68. A few spots in N IL dropped to the mid 20s this morning, probably close to all time late season cold...but there aren’t many long lasting PORs besides ORD and RFD, which only dropped to 31 and 29 respectively due to UHI influences.

Lows in the LOT forecast area. While impressive, no daily records were broken. Some places, like UGN, may have been close to records for “coldest so late in the season”...but difficult to find reliable and long-term data besides Chicago and Rockford. A bit too much wind for the typical radiators, and the core of the cold was pulling out overnight, as winds switched to SW just before sunrise. UGN 25 DPA 26 ARR 27 JOT 27 DKB 28 RFD 29 PWK 30 ORD 31

Waukegan (UGN) is only 38 degrees at 12 noon, with a WC of 30. Midnight high was 41. ORD had a midnight high of 45, and is currently 43 with a WC of 34. So, the record low max of 42 in 1960 will hold. In WI, the coldest low temp I found this morning was 21 in Minocqua. In Rhinelander at 12 noon, it's 29/8, WC 20. Dropped to 24 there this morning, just missing the May 8th record low of 22 set in 2017 and 1929. Normal low is 38.

If you squint very very carefully, the 18z 3km NAM appears to have a lake-effect snow signal in NE IL on Friday morning. Maybe a "lake-effect flurry" signal...

LOT URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 1125 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002- 010-011-019-080030- /O.CON.KLOT.FZ.A.0001.200509T0500Z-200509T1300Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage- La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford- Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will- Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, Dixon, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Rensselaer, DeMotte, Fowler, and Oxford 1125 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 /1225 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020/ ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and central, east central, north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

I've been trying to find the record low temp for the month of May by state...but it's harder to find than I thought. Any good websites for this?

LOT A remarkably cold/deep mid-upper low will be located near Ontario-Quebec border late Thursday night into Friday morning. A short-wave wrapping around this ULL will bring a reinforcing surge of anomalously cold air aloft into Friday morning. ECMWF has been consistent in signal for showers driven by this wave and land/lake convergence. Not all guidance has picked up on this yet, but with consistency of ECMWF, added in slight chance PoPs for northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana. With very strong May sun and extremely cold air aloft with low freezing levels, steep low level lapse rates could yield graupel mix if not outright snow showers in spots should the showers materialize. Outside of this, the main story will be the temperatures likely staying in the 40s in many areas with brisk northerly winds. In addition, northerly wind driven waves and record lake levels could bring some risk for lakeshore flooding to at least portions of IL/IN shore. The unseasonably cold daytime temps followed by diminishing winds, clearing skies Friday night and 850 mb temps bottoming out as cold as -6 to -9 Celsius (among coldest 850 mb temps on record in May at ILX and DVN) could set the stage for a rare May freeze (<32F) everywhere but downtown Chicago and a hard freeze (<=28F) for some locations. The last May freeze at O`Hare, Chicago`s climate site was all the way back on May 3, 2004 when the low temperature was 30 degrees. With the growing season now well underway after the warm conditions this past weekend, this could be a damaging freeze if it occurs. Should trends hold for temperatures Friday night into Sat. AM, we`ll likely need to issue a Freeze Watch at some point over the next few days. The deep trough responsible for Friday-Sat AM cold will exit east on Saturday, allowing for moderation back into the 50s for highs (still well below normal) along with plenty of sun. Unfortunately, model and ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement for a clipper-like system to impact the area on Mother`s Day (Sunday). There`s uncertainty at timing of precip. onset, with ECMWF on slower side Saturday night, but felt signal is strong enough for rain on Sunday that PoPs were bumped up to likely. The exact track of the associated low pressure system will determine whether temperatures will be merely well below normal (period of time in "warm" sector) or in the 40s (low pressure track south of us). Added in some slight chance thunder mention to account for the brief period in warm sector scenario and fairly stout short-wave with steep lapse rates). Another shot of unseasonably cold air aloft (several degrees below 0C at 850 mb) could follow Sunday`s clipper system and depending on how long it takes to exit the region, hate to say it but couldn`t rule out some wet snow Sunday night before precip ends.