beavis1729

RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.

That sounds like interesting work, and very valuable - good for you! Mentioned it in another post - I have a met degree but unfortunately gave up on forecasting out of school. Forecasting didn't come naturally to me, so I threw in the towel prematurely instead of putting the extra effort in. And I was only 21 when I graduated, and was afraid to move somewhere else and be open to the unknown, far away from home. Never really had a good sense at the time of what job opportunities existed in meteorology, outside of forecasting. Was scared to death of being on TV, so never bothered even looking into it. Had a few odd jobs that were weather-related right after graduating...but then ended up getting an MS in math, and (ironically) taught for a few years...and ended up being very comfortable speaking in front of the camera/other people. Life is funny that way, I guess. Now work in insurance. But meteorology has always been my passion, especially winter weather (big surprise, I know).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayambe_(volcano)

Borrowed from the TN forum... Eric Webb @webberweather · 6h This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between.

Good info. Here's the kicker - even in one of Chicago's best winters (2013-14), there were only 83 days with 1" of snow cover. MSP averages 100 days per winter. This is a perfect summary of why I'd be satisfied with MSP's winter climo. P.S. In January 2014, ORD had 33.7" of snow, but the net change in snow depth during the month was zero (!). On 1/1/2014, snow depth was 3"...and on 1/31/2014 it was also 3". And, on top of that, the month was 8.1F below normal. This is why our climo is so frustrating. Even when we're 8 degrees below normal during the coldest month of the year, and receive about 3x the normal snowfall, we can't gain snowpack month-on-month. Just too many thaws. It's really hard to comprehend - I had to triple-check the #'s because it seems so hard to believe. Before everyone jumps on me again...I'm not saying 2013-14 was a bad winter. But it illustrates the crazy gradient in the winter feel between MSP and ORD.

Yep. I was teaching at NIU at the time...just a winter wonderland all month. Extremely cold too, with all of the snow cover.

Thanks RC and Hoosier - I'll jump in. I've always wondered why a January 1999 type storm isn't more common here or nearby. Seemed like nothing special from a meteorological standpoint. All you needed was a large dome of cold air...and then overrunning seemed to provide most of the widespread snowfall...not necessarily a deep low with a perfectly placed deformation band. Also, we had some great radiational cooling set-ups after that storm. Congerville (near Joliet) hit -36, and many spots in NE IL hit the -20s despite not having a deeply cold airmass. At least that's what I recall. Any other widespread share-the-wealth storms in the Midwest, similar to the set-up (if not the snowfall amounts) of Jan 1999?

I believe MSP averages about 60 "wintry" days per year...which I define as a day with a max temp <= 29F AND 2+" of snow cover. Definitely not as many wintry days as I thought...but it's probably closer to 65-70 days outside of the city/airport UHI. For comparison, ORD probably averages around 25 wintry days per year (?). Huge difference. I'd like to calculate the exact 50-year average #'s for ORD and MSP, but unfortunately the Utah State climate data CSV files are nowhere to be found anymore. It used to be very easy to download this data. I've looked at XMACIS too; maybe I'm missing something. Another way to look at it is that a daily min of 0F at ORD is just as common as a 30F min in January, assuming a normal distribution. So, every cold morning is balanced out by a mild morning. At MSP, it's much different, as a 0F min is just as common as a 15F min. And outside of the MSP UHI, it's even better...as a 0F min is just as common as a 10F min. Our resident MSP poster mentioned that, over the last 10 winters, MSP has averaged 100 days with 1"+ of snow cover. ORD has only accomplished this once in history, I believe (1978-79). All of the above information, combined with a lower sun angle, makes the tenor of winter much much better in the MSP area. There's a lot more to it than just total snowfall. I'm disappointed with about 75% of winters here. In the MSP area, I'd probably be disappointed with 25% of winters. Not perfect of course, but much better.

Even Chicago (ORD) has only had 2 days this season with a low temp colder than 18F. It's really shocking...

Incorrect. MSP would be fine, as long as it's outside the UHI. Snow cover and retention is most important, as it looks like winter. Would prefer a bit more than 50" of average annual snowfall, but it will do. There is a huge winter gradient across the midwest, and from my perspective MSP is usually on the right side of it. This is precisely one of the reasons why I get so frustrated with our climo...because significantly better winters are really not that far away as the crow flies.

Hi Cromartie.

Huge difference in retention between MSP and Chicago. One example - MSP has a 70% chance of a white Christmas, Chicago around 45%. Retention difference is even greater in Jan-Feb. I think the DJF average temp difference is about 6-7F, so more margin for error on thaws. Even greater difference outside of the MSP heat island.

Yep, thank you sir. Keeping an eye on it, haven’t been able to find job openings in my field. Post Covid, may be some remote opportunities. My wife lived there for a few years in the 90s when they had some good winters.

Appreciate your comments...I just figure that all snow lovers would get frustrated by our climo...and people could at least agree on that, with so much anger and discord in the world right now. You and others seem to deal with our climo more maturely than I do. I have a met degree, so I understand climo and the science behind meteorology...but what always drove me to pursue that path was a love of winter. So, of course much of what I say on this forum doesn't make logical sense. I'm in denial about winters here...and just can't get past it. I'm not trolling. What I'm trying to accomplish is to have others share in my frustration...and maybe even to share in nostalgia to talk about the great patterns of the past, and what we should be looking for to make it happen again. That's why the NE forum is fun. Even with some challenging personalities, there is robust discussion and remembrance of historical storms...and it's filled with hope and weenies. That's a good thing...an escape from the modern world. It's difficult enough being on an island in the world as a snow lover...and then to be on an island even on a snow-loving forum like this is even stranger. When first joining this forum 10 years ago, I figured most people would be like me...but that's not what happened. Snow & arctic cold lovers don't fit into the modern world, especially the suburban/urban Chicago metro area. This current winter, especially with Covid, is the icing on the cake. The lack of snowfall is bad enough...but there just hasn't been any cold all winter. Where did it go? It just doesn't feel right. Even if you use climo as the benchmark...ORD's normal low is around 15, and imby it's probably around 13. We've had two days all season with a low temp colder than this. Doesn't everyone on here not just understand the frustration...but feel it too?

Thanks for being a bully...much appreciated.

My wife has been working for 10 years to convince local municipalities of this, without much success. The environmental impacts of this culture are beyond belief. Maybe it was fine in the 1950s, but things can't just stay the same forever, once the impacts are known. Kind of like smoking. Hopefully we as a society will begin embracing native habitats, and trying to restore them. The loss of biodiversity is really a tragedy, but most people don't think about it. As with anything, it will take time. It's an example of an environmental problem where the good of the community/planet/ecosystem needs to outweigh individual freedom.

Hmmm...many people seem to be missing the point. Yes, relative to climo, 2013-14 was a spectacular winter. But for those of us who love winter, climo doesn't matter. I'm talking about an "absolute level" standard of what winter should be like. I checked Dallas's records...and their best winter is probably 1977-78. 17.6" of snow, and an average DJF temp of 39.3F (about 9F colder than the 1981-2010 normal). But for a winter lover, that's a horrible winter. That's all I'm saying. I've said very clearly that 2013-14 was good. But most winters should be 50+", with frozen lakes and ponds, and long periods of 6"+ snow cover. It's not that exceptional; just what winter should be. Even in an absolute sense, 1978-79 was exceptional. 90+" of snow in much of NE IL (105.1" in Antioch per NOWData), with consistent snow cover in all of DJF. Antioch actually had 116 consecutive days with snow cover, from 11/27/1978 to 3/22/1979...with a max depth of 39" on 1/16/1979. It works the other way too. For Bo and Will's locations, every winter is great, even if they occasionally have some clunkers relative to climo. Not expecting the level of cold of northern MN, or the prolific snow of the UP snow belts. Just a happy medium in between, which can be counted on in most/all years.

Of course I'm blaming the message and not the messenger ...but this is just one more item to be added to the seemingly infinite list of commentary that defines our horrible winter climo. The fact that we could have such a disastrous winter up to this point, and then somehow one decent snowfall in mid-winter could magically get us into a "respectable range"...it's just laughable. And I know Hoosier often points out how there have been a significant % of winters with less than 6" up to this point. A season like we're experiencing now should be the worst of all time...not simply in the bottom 20-25%. Sure, it would be great to see a 4-6" spread-the-wealth snow around here over the next 10 days...and of course it's welcome and to be cherished, just like any snowfall. But that is the minimum of what should happen in (especially) January...not some aspirational target that we have to hope for 50 things to go right in order to accomplish. It's not November or April. I'll again point out that ORD has still only had 2 days with low temps colder than 18F all season. What is happening??? There "should" be at least 30 such days by now, or even more. You can't make this up. Another blight on our climo (as if it could get any worse) is that, when the 1991-2020 normals come out, Chicago's average January temp will probably be around 24F. With the 1961-1990 normals, it was around 20F. Warming up by 4F over a 30-year period is not good, when we were already right on the edge of crap 30 years ago anyway. Whether it's UHI, climate change, or a combination of the two...we should just wave the white flag and be done with it. Let's just face reality, speak up, and admit how horrible our winter climo is. Everyone dances around the edges and pretends it's ok. But it's not. And before people rub 2013-14 and 2014-15 in my face: yes, those were decent winters. But, while I truly don't expect 2013-14 or 2014-15 every winter, those two years should be closer to what should happen every winter...not some wild exceptions. Our normal winters are horrible, and our bad winters are unfathomable. What's the point - we need a significantly better-than-climo winter to justify our love of winter...and to justify how the media portrays it. It's comical how we're all so hopeful/excited about the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. This type of pattern should be typical in winter, where...heaven forbid...wait for it...it's actually cold with some snow. You know, winter. It shouldn't need to be classified as a good pattern where we need 5 different indices to work out, and the TPV to be in a certain position, and the western ridge to be lined up perfectly, and not too much of a SE ridge, etc. It should just be the default. Where are the clippers?? A true "good" pattern is Dec 2000, Jan 1979, Feb 2015; we should save the praise for when it's actually warranted. It's infuriating how low our standards are. Tired, tired, tired, tired of it. Block me and ignore me if you want...I know it's maddening to put up with this. I get it. I just wish people on a winter weather forum were as infuriated as I am. Maybe some are, and just have better manners than I do...and don't pollute threads like this. Oh well...winter is very emotional for some of us. Once I move up north, all of this complaining will be finished and burned in a huge metaphorical bonfire of crap.

That says it all, and basically sums up the winter. Cool south + hot north = no temp gradient = no baroclinicity = no storms.

Why are people in this sub-forum so interested in polishing turds, and insisting/lecturing that we must be ok with this crappy winter...and the recent crappy winters? And expecting us to be ok with climo or worse? What is the obsession with this, and castigating people who dare to have hope? Even with the much appreciated input and analysis from mets and others, it makes the sub-forum unreadable. At a minimum, this forum should at least have a neutral slant. And, if anything, it should lean in the weenie direction. We all know how horrible our climo is - we don't need to be reminded every day, and we don't need to "be grateful" when a pattern *may* be changing by the end of January, after wasting 6+ weeks of winter. If some people want to be grateful, fine...but don't expect others to be. If I'm a Bears fan, am I grateful for an 8-8 season and limping out of the playoffs? Heaven forbid that McHenry Snow actually hopes for (and expects) the weather to be wintry in winter. After an absolutely horrendous stretch, we're supposed to be excited about T-2" of snow with this system? His concerns with this upcoming system are relevant. If I liked warm weather, does it make me a weenie to hope for and expect sunny days with temps in the 80s during summer? No...because we expect summer in summer, and winter in winter. Come on...is this what we've come to? Let's support the weenies of the world, and be hopeful. If McHenry snow were going over the top in extreme fashion and complaining every minute of every day and bashing others, that's one thing...but this is not like that at all. Ugh...going into hiding again.

But that doesn’t matter. If it happens to be 30F for a day or two in the Deep South, good for them...but that’s not true cold on an absolute level. And, even so, that snow will melt within a day or two...so it’s pointless. If it were April, that’s a different story...but it’s the heart of winter now. I am talking about the absolute degree of cold air...and mainly north of 35N...like how winter should be, when every time you walk outside, it’s painful. Children crying for their mommas, winters of yore, etc. As an example - it looks like a -EPO may be coming, but there is no cold to tap into. If you get a good old fashioned -EPO, you’ll start to see -20 temps progged in the upper Midwest...not temps either side of 0. It’s like all of the cold is tempered, and a million things need to go right to get decent wintry weather in winter. What happened to seasons in seasons? In JJA, we expect it to feel like summer...and nature usually obliges. Just want DJF to actually be wintry, with some degree of consistency. The upper Midwest has been baking for 6 weeks...hardly any true cold all winter in the Dakotas/MN/WI. Heaven forbid if this is the new normal. Just venting...very frustrating. Sorry to pop in to the New England thread, but I figured there would be sympathetic ears given that you (and NYC to DC area) all are experiencing the same crappy and boring wx that we’re dealing with in the Midwest.

The crazy thing about this pattern is that everyone in the lower 48 is getting screwed, north of 35N or so. It's really bordering on ridiculous. There is no cold anywhere, and this has gone on for about 6 weeks. If this were early-mid Dec and we were saying this, fine...but it's mid-Jan now. As an example, Chicago (ORD) has only had 2 days all season so far with a low temp colder than 18F (!!!). And, only 5" of snow so far in the season. That's just not acceptable. And INL has only had 15" of snow since Dec 1st, and they're at a +18 temp departure for Jan so far. It was 40F there on Jan 2nd...in the icebox of the nation. Normal high is around 15. Where is the cold air...anywhere in the lower 48?? And no, it doesn't count if Charleston or Savannah is -5F on departures. No one cares about that. Looks like things may finally step down to cold later in January...but it should not take this long. Ugh...I feel your pain.

You think that's bad...ORD has only had 2 days this season with a low temp colder than 18F. You can't make this stuff up.

Yeah...unfortunately, there has been no cold air anywhere in the lower 48 so far this winter. As an example - for the current cold season through 12/27, Chicago (ORD) has only seen 5 days with a low temp colder than 24F. And there were only 2 (!!) such days through 12/23. That is just ridiculous.