beavis1729

Looks like the low is still 86, so far. if it holds, it will tie DFW's highest daily min in recorded history, going back to 1898. 86 on 7/27/2018 86 on 8/16/2011 86 on 8/4/2011 86 on 8/3/2011 86 on 7/26/2011

108 in Hobart OK right now. They should hit 110-115 Monday and Tuesday. If OKC reaches 110 over the next couple of days, it will be their hottest temp since 8/3/2012 (113).

Definitely...as record highs in OKC (as an example) are 108-110 for July 18-20. NWS Tulsa: Ridge aloft quickly strengthens across the region by Monday and likely maintains the dominate influence through much of next week. Deterministic guidance raw sfc temps generates extreme heat values next week, and while errors are likely large at this time range, the more reasonable bias corrected blend still produces high confidence for high temps in the 100 to 110 range for several days across the forecast area. No meaningful rainfall is expected through the forecast period and drought conditions will continue to intensify.

Only 5 days out...12z GFS:

Morning lows too warm for best climo - lake influence and UHI.

12z GFS shows high temps of 105-115 in Oklahoma for a week straight. Bring back the 1930s.

A bit toasty in TX today. Cotulla is 109/63/113 at 3 pm local time...and only under a Heat Advisory. And far south TX isn't even under an advisory - Brownsville is 96/75/108. I'm guessing their advisory criteria is 110+. Just run of the mill stuff.

Intra-hour low of 82.

Per the 4pm daily climate report, looks like an intra-hour high of 106. Just missed the record of 107 from 1956.

The current hot weather in Dallas (and the potential for even hotter temps by mid-month if the GFS verifies) made me look at July 1980. Just amazing - every single day that month was 100+ at DFW...in fact, the lowest daily max was 101. Hottest temp was 110 on the 2nd and 18th. Average high temp in July 1980 was 105.3.

Yeah. 12z is showing 110-115 in parts of Nebraska at Day 8...not completely clown range.

A bit toasty in the TN valley today...Memphis is 101/75/115. Just unbearable...and it has been like this for a few days already, with no significant relief in sight.

Thanks, and my bad on the exact criteria. But that just reinforces the point that the criteria seem to be too strict. Just my two cents...but even one day of 110+ HI (or 2 days of 105+ HI), along with the wet bulb global temp considerations that Hoosier mentioned, seems to be more than enough for a warning. I understand that the NWS doesn't want to be accused of crying wolf...but anything close to a 110 HI for even two seconds is brutal with no AC. It can cause major problems for vulnerable people.

Probably not worth nit-picking to death...but it's strange that RFD isn't under an excessive heat warning, even as it's 95/79/113. Seems like an abundance of caution should be taken for heat-related hazards, given the reports you often hear of children being left in cars, people with no AC, etc. Side note - I've always thought that the heat advisory and excessive heat warning thresholds in the LOT area are too strict to begin with. In other words, it's extremely difficult to hit the excessive heat warning criteria. Even with this in mind, today isn't a case of whether the criteria are too strict; the criteria were met in RFD but they're only under a heat advisory. And the overnight low temps, amount of sun, etc. could be considered too. RFD only dropped to 77 this morning, with dews in the mid-upper 70s for 9-12 consecutive hours.

FEP 92/82/114 IKK 97/77/113 RFD 94/78/110 MLI 97/74/109 ORD 90/75/101

Low of 83 this morning in STL, which will probably hold through the rest of the day (1 am CDT). This ties the daily record from 2012. I looked at STL's F-6 from July 2012...can't believe how hot that month was there. 15 days of 100+, including a max/min of 108/86 on July 25th. Average high/low for the month was 98.6/77.5, about 8 degrees above normal.

Interesting data. While I don’t live in the region, I have a theory as to why the week before Christmas has seen the most warming. I think it’s a few things: (1) Some randomness of the data, as powderfreak mentioned (2) SSTs are warming, and this time of year could be when coastal temps are highly influenced by SSTs (3) This is a time of year when snow pack in the immediate source region is highly variable from one year to the next. And due to the general background warming trend and the sensitivity of upstream snow cover at this time of the year, there are many more years with little/no snow on the ground upstream (and in SNE) than there used to be. Once you get into January, there is probably a good amount of upstream snow cover regardless of how mild December has been…which is why the warming in January isn’t as great.

Very impressive for your location, especially in June. I’m guessing you only average 2-3 90+ days each year?

If it holds through the rest of the day (1 am CDT), this morning's low of 77 in Fargo would be their 2nd warmest min on record in June, and 4th warmest all-time. Records go back to 1881. The only warmer mins are: 7/10/1936: high 110, low 82 7/11/1936: high 106, low 80 6/28/1996: high 93, low 78

Ended up hitting 101, with 7 consecutive hourly obs of 99 or higher. Very impressive.

Yeah - it shows 105 in Grand Forks ND on Sunday and Monday

Correct sir…believe it or not, was just up there in early June. 60s during the day inland (50s on the water) and 40s at night.

Mixing out a bit here…currently 95/73/106.

Yep. From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch: Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures. The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM. The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI. Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100 across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record temperatures in this area on day 5.