beavis1729

Yeah, unfortunately today’s runs (including the 18z GFS) completely lost the -EPO that several runs over the past few days were showing. And it’s not like this was 2+ weeks out, it was roughly days 6-10. I guess this type of rug pull is tolerable for now, since it’s still mid-November. If this was 2-3 weeks from now, I would be furious.

I'm expressing societal concerns - it's not about me.

Even though you said you're aware of the station location changing, it's a huge factor in why the winter temp has only risen 0.3F over the past 150 years in Chicago. A station right on the lake is always meaningfully warmer in the winter in this neck of the woods, so it's not a fair comparison to ORD. I find it funny that nearly 100% of the scientific community is concerned about the recent warming, and it's clear that the impact of UHI on temps (and exacerbating the impact of heat waves) is worsening...yet I'm the one who is out of line in my comments? All I'm doing is summarizing the consensus and concerns. Of course temps have been warmer in Earth's history, but it's the rate of warming recently which has been shocking. Places in the arctic have warmed 5+ degrees over the past 100 years. The lower 48 hasn't warmed as much, but still a material change. How could one argue that this isn't something to be mindful of? As mentioned before, I actually do believe/hope the recent warming is somewhat driven by seasonal/decadal factors...but until we see how the next 10-20 years shake out, shouldn't we have a heightened level of concern? It's just solid proactive risk mitigation. I also happen to believe that we have a lot of other environmental issues on Earth which are much more concerning than climate change...but that's for another discussion. I know you may not mean this...but some people on this board come across as not being worried at all, and even dismissive of anyone who simply voices the consensus. That's strange to me...but I suppose it's in line with the individualistic U.S. mindset/approach on all issues, i.e., "me, me, me...who cares about how things may impact anyone else." Edit to add: here's a clear illustration of the worsening impact of UHI during heat waves. For August 26-27, the AM lows at ORD were 79, 78...compared to 72, 74 at RFD and 75, 75 at MLI. The air mass was essentially the same in both places. One could even argue it was more humid at MLI, yet even so the AM lows at ORD were 3-4F higher. Besides the obvious frustration about human/industrialization impacts on local climate, the lack of nighttime cooling has been documented as a significant concern re: modern heat waves in urban areas.

I think people are getting caught up on the semantics of the word "historical". To me, historical doesn't mean the same as unprecedented. Yes, it has been hot this time of year in the past, and yes it has hit 100 in Sept before. But normal highs are near 80 this time of year, so the 96 & 99 highs at ORD yesterday & today respectively (combined with very high humidity, dews mid-upper 70s) are an extremely unusual occurrence in late August. Why is this controversial? It's just like in winter, when people use basic high-level numbers to judge how good a month or season is. There is much more to it than that. For example, if January has 10" of snow but with snow cover all month due to cold temps, it's definitely more wintry than a January with 15" of snow with constant thaws. The point is that total snowfall doesn't tell the whole story of a winter. Same idea in summer - the past 2 days at ORD had extremely high humidity with very high overnight mins. This is much worse from a historical/impact perspective than a 102/65 max/min with dews around 60. In other words, high temps alone don't tell the whole story. The Climate Changer is correct that things have been warming up recently, especially in UHI areas. Of course, this is in general...not necessarily every single year. And, of course, we can't attribute individual heat waves to this. But people have a right to worry about more heat waves, especially if you live in a city with worsening UHI and the public planning/actions aren't helping to mitigate UHI (much less acknowledge that it's a problem to begin with). I guess we have know-it-alls on this forum who go against all of the established science. For what purpose - to stir up drama? Why? Recent warming is common knowledge, even if it's not 100% man-made. Pointing this out shouldn't be controversial. Look at the average temps at ORD as an example; they've increased 3-4 F over the past 40 years in winter, and 2-3F in the other seasons. That's a very big deal. Heck, even a 1F change would be a big deal over 40 years, which is a speck of time in the grand scheme of things. It's even worse in the arctic. Perhaps The Climate Changer and others get frustrated sometimes because no one (meaning "global society") seems to acknowledge it, or care, or do anything about it. It's the same idea as a person who works tirelessly to advocate for affordable housing and other policies to help the homeless...but nothing ever gets better because not enough people in important/influential positions care. Whether it's UHI worsening, higher nighttime mins (not as much daytime maxes), more impact in the winter vs. summer, or a combination of all of these...it's definitely happening. Personally, I'm putting my hope on a reversing AMO to slow or even reverse the warming a bit...which will be great if it happens. But even so, it's reasonable to take an approach of "I'll believe it when I see it". There are going to be deaths from the current heat wave, especially in Chicago due to less access to AC and other reasons. That in and of itself makes it a noteworthy and concerning (one could even say "historical") event, unless we don't care about people suffering. None of these comments are meant to be alarmist; it's just the unfortunate reality. Why is it nonsense for The Climate Changer to point these things out? If people don't want to accept the factual/statistical info, you can put him on ignore.

Bayfield and the Apostle Islands are a beautiful area…love it up there. Hope you have a good time even with the iffy weather.

Falfurrias TX was 101/82/128 this afternoon.

I suppose...but this early in the season? Any Heat Index above 95F is horrible imo, so yes I'm biased.

And it's even worse today. Brownsville is 102/80/124, and McAllen is 107/74/121...just unbearable.

McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May.

Vegas was 90/16/84 yesterday, RH 7%. And even that's nothing, especially in June when the heat really kicks in but it's still before monsoon season. It's not uncommon to see June afternoons around 100/5/92, RH 3%. At 3PM on 7/2/2007, it was 110/-7/99, RH 1%...just insanely dry.

Impressive late-season cold, especially by recent standards. It was 30 here. Some low temps in the LOT area: ARR 24 RFD 26 (record is 24 in 1988) DKB 28 FEP 28 DPA 29

Yeah, I've seen SDDs mentioned fairly often, but mainly in places where there's a reliable snow cover each year. I like it because it brings a lot of important variables together (temperature, cloudiness, snowfall, frequency of thaws) and is a great way to capture the overall tenor of a winter. If one cares about living in a wintry place, it's probably the best/simplest metric to compare winters from one locale to another. Simply using snowfall as a winter metric can be very misleading. I'd much prefer a frontloaded winter with 40" of snow and a -10F temp departure, vs. a winter with 60" of snow and a +5 temp departure. The former would have a lot more SDDs.

Another nice winter in southern Alaska. Anchorage just had their 2nd snowiest winter on record (132.6"). Average is 77", and the record is 134.5" set in 2011-12. Even more impressive is the snow depth days (SDDs) and # of days with snow cover. I'm not sure what those records are for Anchorage, but the final 2023-24 numbers have got to be close...and possibly brand new records: - 3,965 SDDs (the record snow season of 2011-12 had 3,807 SDDs) - 174 days of 1+" snow cover, including 172 consecutive days - 170 days of 6+" snow cover...more than 5.5 months! - 152 days of 12"+ snow cover - Peak snow depth of 38" on 2/5 (record snow depth is 47" on 1/1/1956) - Still 20" snow depth on 4/14, and 10" on 4/21 Warmer temps are on tap, which should allow for a quick snowmelt. Normals for April 15th are still fairly chilly (45/30), but high temps will probably soar well into the 50s later this week. *Edit #1: First 50F of the season on 4/20; the first 50F temp in Anchorage since 10/2/23 (201 days ago) *Edit #2: Updated stats through 4/24/24

Not intending to speak for weather will, but there is probably a reverse psychology component to this. I can relate to it, since unfortunately I do it too. In the northern suburbs of Chicago, we have had 9 consecutive bad winters. 2013-14 was good, 2014-15 was decent (can’t call it good since the first half of winter was almost non-existent that season). The 9 since have been bad, using more meaningful metrics like SDDs (as opposed to snowfall totals). If snow melts after a few days, it ruins the ambience and tenor of winter. After so many years of being let down, one stops getting excited about winter overall (and snowstorms that show up on models) because it has often resulted in being let down. But in March, you feel more open to being excited, since it’s out of the “expected” season so you have less to lose if the threat falls apart. So, I don’t think it’s trolling. It also bothers me when people talk about climo all the time, and keeping expectations in check. If that were really true, there’s really no use getting excited about winter. There are certain absolute standards for winter. If you live in Miami, 1976-77 was a cold winter relative to normal. Does that mean it should get an A grade? Of course not, since there was never snow on the ground. Bing Crosby didn’t sing “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…with the caveat and hope that all of the atmospheric indices line up perfectly.” I just want symmetry in the seasons. If you wake up in the heart of winter, it should be reliably cold with snow on the ground. When I look out the window in July, I know it’s going to feel and look like summer. There are no worries. I think a lot of us just want winter to be more consistent and reliable. It doesn’t mean there haven’t been wintry periods IMBY over the past 9 years…but there is no consistency. In late January 2019, we had two mornings in the -20s with nearly a foot of snow on the ground, but then it was in the 40s two days later. That’s unacceptable. Cold snaps seem to flip quickly, instead of more gradual warm ups on the back end of them. End of rant - all of this to say that, for people who really love the tenor of winter and like the harmony of seasons in seasons, it has been a very difficult period. The worst part about this winter is that, even in places where I thought winter was always sacred (like 45N and north in the Midwest), it has been horrendous. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI, and both were canceled. In fact, many areas never opened trails at all! Usually the season is from 12/15 to 3/15. It’s just horrible. Many areas in far northern WI average near 100”, but have only had 20” this season. Parts of MN have had less than 10” for the season. Obviously I don’t live in your forum area, but I stop by here often for the quality of discussion (same with TN valley). The lakes/Ohio valley forum seems puritanical, like you’re not allowed to be excited about snow and cold. Just wanted to add some context to the frustration and conversation. I hate to admit it, but it seems like we need to wait for the AMO and PDO to flip, in order to even have a reasonable chance at a decent winter. I realize this is a pessimistic view, but unfortunately it seems like a reasonable approach after 9 consecutive warm/bad years.

Make that 77F at Rockford - just ridiculous. Normal high is 38F.