beavis1729

Yikes, and good stuff…just a bit chilly. It’s strange to me that an algorithm could affect temperature outputs from a model. You’d think the model output is what it is, and then is simply displayed in map form. Maybe there is some interpolation that WxBell and other companies do, to “fill in” the data gaps? A discussion for another time, I suppose. Anyway - as an example of the ongoing cold in eastern AK and the Yukon, Juneau AK dropped to -10 yesterday. It hasn’t been colder than -10 in Juneau since 1974.

Yeah...hovering over the pixels in the Yukon on the map below, there's a modeled -71F at hour 312. I keep an eye on modeled temps up there in the winter, and seeing anything colder than -65F on the GFS (since it's a global model and therefore doesn't capture the local terrain/cold spots very well) is extremely rare. While I agree it could be driven by model feedback, it's still very impressive to see. As for ground truth...I believe the coldest temp in Alaska since 2000 is -64F in early Feb. 2024. So, if these modeled temps come close to verifying, I'd argue it would be the coldest temps in 25+ years in that part of the world. Great article on Alaska's 2024 cold outbreak here: https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/alaskas-2024-cold-snap Also, for anyone interested in Alaska weather & climate, this is a great blog: https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

That January 1989 Alaska cold snap, in my opinion, could be a candidate for the most impressive temperature-related weather event in recorded history on Earth, relative to “normal”. Tanana, AK was the epicenter. During the last 2 weeks of that month, every single day was at least 43 degrees colder than normal. The peak of the cold was 1/27/1989, with a high/low of -60/-76…which is 60 degrees colder than normal. An absolutely unbelievable event. While Alaska has had some impressive cold waves since then (Dec. 2012 comes to mind), they have mainly been duration-driven instead of extreme intensity. Nothing has come close to the severity of January 1989.

Nice find, and I see it listed as an option on Pivotal Weather too.

And Midlo VA Snowmaker, who often posted in the mid-Atlantic forum.

Speaking for myself on the chinook discussion, I didn’t intend to imply that it would directly affect us with warmth for a long period of time. The problem, in my mind, is the existence of the chinook pattern itself, even though it has really only caused warmth in MT, CO, WY, NE, SD. This has been going on for several weeks. Places like Denver, Cheyenne, and Rapid City have essentially had no winter so far, and unfortunately that looks to continue for the rest of the month. Joe Bastardi, or perhaps a different met, has a saying about “the angle of the cold”. In a chinook pattern, the angle of the cold is wrong for us, for two reasons. First, even when it does stay cold here, it’s very dry and boring due to NW flow. Second, the warmth is always lurking, because we’re on the far western edge of the cold airmass. So, any minor change in the flow quickly makes it warmer here. That happened last week in my neck of the woods, where a couple of good early season snowfalls melted away because the warmth out west pivoted over here…even though it only lasted for a few days. The point of all this is that, to me, it’s a much better pattern for all of us when there is no chinook at all. I like to see highs come down into the western plains, creating upslope snow in MT/WY/CO, then the cold eventually trickles east and lasts for awhile. Basically, I’m describing a -EPO from a more “on the ground” perspective. I just think the current pattern (starting around 12/5) has been very obnoxious, and unfortunately it looks to continue for 10 more days. Definitely good to see some light at the end of the tunnel, and it can’t come soon enough.

Yeah, that was a crazy period. Chicago was 69F on 12/28/1984, then a few weeks later it hit -27F on 1/20/1985 during one of the greatest arctic outbreaks in modern history.

All good, and I definitely hear you. Speaking for myself (and possibly many others on the board), I don’t think people are saying that winter is over. People are just sad that winter is taking a break. For those who love winter like myself, we want it to look and feel like winter throughout DJF. Most people like warm weather, and I don’t mind it either…and that’s fine during the other 9 months of the year. I just want DJF to be sacred, especially December due to the short days and holidays…and mild temps during these months (even for a day or two) are annoying to me. I always say it’s more about the look and feel and tenor of the season, as opposed to just chasing a big storm. In some ways, it’s analogous to being a sports fan. You want your team to win every game, even though it’s not realistic. When you love something, emotion is more meaningful than logic. And I definitely get the logic piece, since I have a met degree. My career ended up going in a different direction, but it’s still one of my favorite hobbies, mainly driven by the beauty of winter.

I like your optimism, but unfortunately I don’t see anything redeeming at all on the 18z GFS. There’s essentially no snowfall south of 46N through the entire 16-day run. I know it’s only one model run, but my takeaway is that the chinook pattern is continuing, even if any “torches” are generally muted in our areas. The area east of the Rockies to the Mississippi River continues to be dry as a bone, run after run. And for me, any temps warmer than 40F this time of year is considered a torch. The 18z GFS is just way too mild over the next 2 weeks in NE IL for my liking, and another concern is that Canada and the northern tier of the US are losing the deep cold. We need to see more of a look where the ridge retrogrades and forms a -EPO. Maybe the pieces are being put into place for that to occur in January, but I would hate to lose the most festive two weeks of the year (holidays, short days, etc.) to mild and boring weather. I would love for someone to correct me, and encourage me to be more optimistic. But it’s maddening to see temps in SD, CO, and NE in the 40s and 50s day after day after day. That never seems to work out well here. Here is an example panel. Of course it’s only a snapshot from one model at one exact point in time that’s pretty far out, but those temps are way too mild for the coldest part of the day (12z). That would be a decent map for late November, but not late December.

Right under the center of the high, it looks like. Assuming it stays above -14 before midnight, Champaign had a 1/-14 high/low today, which is a -36.5F departure from the 1991-2020 normal of 37/23. The -14 low is the coldest temp on record for so early in the season, and records go back more than 130 years. Until today, there were only 2 days in history with a -10 or colder temp on or before December 14th: 12/10/1917: -10 12/11/1917: -12 https://stateclimatologist.web.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/weather-almanac-2025_Dec.pdf

Agree that we haven’t really experienced the chinook ourselves yet, but the problem is the chinook existing out west in the first place. We need that ridge to move further west and become more meridional, to allow moisture-laden lows to develop. Otherwise, it’s dry and boring NW flow, which can be ok if you get hit by a clipper or two…but there’s always a warm risk nearby since the ridge isn’t far away. I like seeing the cold drop down to the Rockies, with the associated upslope snows…because then that cold usually oozes over here and is longer lasting, and often enables overrunning events. Just my preference based on gut feel and observation over the years, not necessarily very scientific. Of course, La Niña does tend to lead to the current situation more often than not, so it’s not too surprising. As always, great discussion in this sub-forum.

Right on. Even though it’s good to see the models trend a bit colder (relatively speaking) in the 7-14 day range, we really need to get out of this obnoxious chinook pattern. Besides the fact that the warm air is always lurking to the west, it’s an incredibly dry pattern/flow since it blocks any formation of low pressure systems and moisture return. I can’t count how many times on the operational runs, day after day, where it shows nearly zero precipitation over a 2-week period in the mountain west and plains. While it has generally maintained cold overall temperatures in these parts (at least so far), it’s a very dry and boring pattern. If I lived in Denver or SD, I would be tearing my hair out since it has felt like extended Fall forever. Hopefully something will shake up the pattern soon. We need a -AO.

KCMI hit -14, with a wind chill of -31.

Even I might have to concede that the cold spells in INL could be a bit much…but it’s worth the price of admission for continuous snow cover in DJF. Plus, the summers are more tolerable there, and it’s not too far away from the boundary waters and Lake Superior. On your last point, I’d suggest ME, VT, or NH. It’s a beautiful part of the country too.

INL would absolutely be great. Even during winter 2011-12, which was horrendous for nearly all of us, INL still had continuous snow cover for 3.5 months. Think about that. The most pathetic winter in our parts still ended up with more days with snow cover than Chicago’s best winter on record (1978-79). That drives me crazy, the huge winter gradient over a relatively short distance. So close, yet so far. I feel even worse for winter lovers in STL or southern IL, where they essentially have no winter…and it’s not really that far away from here. The big issue for me is the volatility. The down periods of winter are so bad, that they overwhelm any good periods. No matter how good it has been from late November through December 10 (which then got dropped down several notches due to the ridiculous snow melt event from a few days ago), there looks to be very little snow over the next 3 weeks. What should happen is, even in the down periods, there’s at least 3” of snow every 7-10 days. It’s horrible to go 2-3 weeks without any snow cover and cold. To sum everything up - we supposedly had a great winter period, but then ORD ends up with no snow cover at the end of the supposed good period. How does that happen? The bad period hasn’t even started yet! Winter is supposed to feature certain things, so it sucks when it doesn’t, no matter where you live and regardless of what climo says.