wx2fish

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If i get lucky and get 3" of snow it will be the largest storm of the season.

If I get 1" it'll be my biggest storm of the season. 

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have no snow at all? I see the grass through it, but there is at least a covering...

Sublimating away in the sun here. Was just up around exit 4 and there was virtually nothing left. Brown Christmas unless Xmas eve can produce 1-2". 

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It is.

Yeah, GFS remains mostly just NNE. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Probably more for CNE/NNE though right? 

Yeah, looking at it from my locale in SNH 

19 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam looks very uninspiring. Would be nice if we could get this up to a 1/10" or more leq for all, but thay might be tough. 

I'd sign for the rgem though

Nam looks very uninspiring. Would be nice if we could get this up to a 1/10" or more leq for all, but thay might be tough. 

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just absolutely broken here

Maybe a half inch here. Just a brutal start from MHT S&E  to 495 around here. I think it's snowed 5 or 6 times for 1.5" total. 

Can work with the end of the EPS (now into early Jan)

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No

Man what a brutal map. What a furnace last Dec was. Almost +7F with 0.7" snow at CON. 

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Some knew. 

Hrrr holding the wedge longer too for this area. Predictable, but the wind threat looks bleak for SNH.

Downpours have been adding up here anyway. Up to 0.9" 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

31.9° -RA

No real accretion although the coop stairs were a little slick

High res trending slower to erode the wedge. Pack remains intact up there. May even take til near dark down here.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah and it’s tossed 

Christmas tree up in flames in Weymouth if that run verified. 

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah...would probably have to go a bit inland...like interior southeast Mass? a bit away from the water. Looks like the 12z GFS did tick a few degrees warmer too...more in the 60-62F range versus 58-61F...subtle but could be a big difference maker. 

The other thing too with those eastern areas is they may be a bit more "unstable" with the heavier rain west. So they could get greater impact from that line as it moves east. Some decent signals the line could intensify as it progresses east.

Yeah and like Scott posted yesterday it would be nice to get some breaks in the showers across Eastern areas to let things mix a little better ahead of the squall line. 

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some argue that CC has changed the large scale pattern to a “new normal” where we are like 3-5F warmer than the 1991-2020 baseline winters. I don’t personally buy that theory but if you torch for 8 out of 10 winters then you might start wondering. We’ve had pretty warm stretches before compared to climo (late 40s/early 50s was somewhat similar…big western troughs many of those years too until it flipped in the mid-1950s)

You def notice it in the “tail distributions” too and not just marginal setups. For example, an extreme pattern that used to produce 60-65F in February might produce 70F now even though in the means we haven’t had 8 degrees of warming. 

But yeah, overall, December is a month you get a decent number of cutters anyway. Esp the first half of the month. 
 

Our big problem going forward isn’t cutters per se, it’s a positive WPO and expanding Aleutian low that is interfering with the flow in a negative way. The Aleutian low almost becomes a GOA low for a time which rolls the sharp PNA ridge over itself after about 12/22 and warms up the CONUS until the low retrogrades back west (which would prob be closer to the end of the month.) 

Guidance has been very volatile though on this. Even the 12/19-12/22 period is a lot colder now than a couple days ago on EPS. 

That's one thing I've kept thinking about. We've dramatically outpaced the background warming trend over the past several winters. Is that a sustainable trend?

The persistentance of torched DJFs has been pretty remarkable, however, I'm in the same camp and feel there will be some reversion back toward baseline in the not too distant future. 

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The Cape is going to get smoked. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 60-70 mph gusts there during the evening. 

May need to watch for a shallow inversion down there with such a warm airmass and winds off the water. Should be windy regardless but may take some off the top end potential 

Not the most exciting stuff, but Tuesday looks pretty cold tucky as the mesolow moves into the GOM. May see alot fzdz right down into N MA if some of the meso runs are right. Not exactly setting the interior up for big winds unless we really see an amped low well to the west. 

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS already has me wedged by the time the cold fropa arrives. I probably won’t be feeling those sweet dews. 

Euro is even more wedged. We know the drill across NH. Congrats on the wedge til fropa 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh i was being kinda of glib - but yeah..it's more where i am frankly.  haha. 

altho q, was boston's above normal in 20/21 from one or two storm type of deal?   we've been getting a lot of season-in-one or two storm type years too, which i think shouldn't be used in any affectation based discussion because it's not fair.   waahh

i can tell you that the 'method' in which these bn years have taken place is very different comparing the 1980s to this last 9 years.  that's part of the it -

Yeah 12" and 24" events in Jan 2022. I get your point though, can be skewed by larger events. Although, Boston is probbaly more prone to that type of distribution with a lower seasonal avg near the water. 

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well .. to be empathetic to the solemn singers, it's been since 2015 ...   mmm 9 years is for all intents and purposes a decade, that much of coastal mass has seen normal snow.  so saying "just had" ...that's a little gaslighty   hahaha.

seriously though, it's getting on in age at this point.   thing is, we may have slipped over a climate threshold where these 9 years worth of sore butting becomes more normal.   i know that's probably going to earn me 0 love hearts, no 100 %'s ... no thankyous and a pile of shit or two, but this is unfortunately our non-zero possible reality at this point. 

that said, this winter will probably go on to conquer all evil ... just to enable.  but the price in selling to that devil might be a new fresh hell of 12 years again over before we pull the cosmic d out of our cc bums ... a time in which the polar ice free waters for the first time.

Boston was above normal in 21-22  along with the monster Jan storm. BN stretch has been longer for us NE MA and SE NH folk

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tis the season

After walking up to a coating this morning part of me just wants to blast the warm front to Montreal 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably going to see some type of wintry mess for NNE Monday. Someone will end up getting smoked

GFS is real wedgy on the front end early next week. High is in a better position. Follow up still busts west, but front end could be wintry for NNE

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of the guidance hinted at the best lift going south and looks like it did. I would have been pissed if it had mattered.

Yep. Only 0.13" in the Davis and a heavy coating here, lame all around. 

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS coming in juicy

And cold. Not sure if we can trust it but that gets interesting down to atleast 495, perhaps even inside

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR illustrates how latitude is needed too. Kevin is on the edge of 4” of man paste or some glop.

The problematic waa is low level, so watch the 925 0 line. 

Euro has the 925 0c line near the south coast and -4/-5c near the MA/NH border. Definitely a workable airmass, but it's a pretty weak system overall.