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isohume

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by isohume

  1. isohume
    Lol, deal!! Its been a three-ring circus at the office and it wont get better. The phone traffic alone is dizzying.
  2. isohume
    Each forecaster has their own take on what's working better, but yeah the EC will be given good weight I imagine.
  3. isohume
    It will likely be included in the next few fcsts if it looks to trend right. Its not always on to something.
  4. isohume
    The EC was used and weighted along with some GFS/CMC fields. The NAM profiles were not incorporated as it was deemed too warm at h85 and was an outlier, but will be watched for further trends. In my personal experience the NAM normally does quite well with the warm nose in this area.
  5. isohume
    Yeah the probabilistic scheme needs some work. Basically it starts with WPC's gaussian which is fitted to our own normalized fcst curve. The outputted range bins are problematic. If any part of a zone is say above 12 inches, it puts that whole area in a 12-18 inch bin.
  6. isohume
    Aww, I think it looks rather pretty. Unfortunately it's part of WPC's suite of probabilistic forecasting, which only goes out 72 hrs. It's automated and we can't touch it or delete it. I'd say it needs some tweaking.
  7. isohume
    In general all models suck. Some mostly suck tho.
  8. isohume
    The GFSux.
  9. isohume
    Oh, that GSP. Sry, carry on.
  10. isohume
    Uh, new fcst isn't out yet.
  11. isohume
    I noticed that too. Upper level div is strong, but cross sections show no deep omega coupling with meager llvl forcing.
  12. isohume
    Meh.
  13. isohume
    Remember to keep an eye on the wishcasting, model chasing, model bashing, modelcasting, and dramacasting.
  14. isohume
    You're welcome. Btw...I have very little patience for falsehoods.
  15. isohume
    I'm pretty sure that's the case. I'm gonna start writing books too. F it.
  16. isohume
    I was agreeing to the fact that folks (Mike) can't accept that a natural disaster can happen even tho folks are warned about it correctly. I was agreeing to the fact that it is dumb luck that a tor of this magnitude hit such a populace area. I always agree that service assessments should be done to see what can be improved upon after a big event. I never mentioned service assessments...you did.
  17. isohume
    No. I'm talking about folks (MIke) looking for things that are wrong that are not worng...such as the storm track of the Joplin storm and the "no mention of Joplin" in the warning statements. Those are false accusations.
  18. isohume
    I somehow doubt it will become a best seller. People can say whatever they want without an accountability for the facts and many folks will believe what they read. This will always be the case I'm sure.
  19. isohume
    That.
  20. isohume
    I'm pretty sure Mike and the media were confused. There were two different storms issued for separately. I suspose it was unfortunate they were in close proximity to each other spatially and temporally. But nonetheless, there were separate defining warnings for each storm At 509 LT, a warning (VTEC 30) went out for the nrn storm, while the Joplin storm (VTEC 31) was still developing on the SW flank. At 517 LT, the warning (VTEC 31) went out for the Joplin storm.
  21. isohume
    What wasn't corrected? The northern storm was a different storm altogether.
  22. isohume
    The spotter reported it 6 miles NE of Galena moving NE at 45 mph at 5:38 LT. The the first issuance of the Joplin tor was based on radar at 5:17 LT.
  23. isohume
    That was for a different tornado warned for, not the Joplin tor. It was for a tor box north of the Joplin tor boxes.
  24. isohume
    Which SVS said that?
  25. isohume
    Haha...that's retarded. You could take any tor track and disect the differences between it and the pathcast in the warning. No matter tho, at issuance time (5:17 LT) the tornado was moving northeast. At the first SVS (5:30 LT), the tor was moving east as was stated in the SVS. Also, Joplin was mentioned in every product for that storm.
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