SR Airglow

Flakes in Boston!

Flurries in the Back Bay.

I’d assume it’s that 24 hour criteria is 8” and that it’s spread out over close to 48 here, but I definitely LOLed at the 4-11” advisory for CT when I checked BOX this morning. This is what @WxWatcher007 went with yesterday evening for CT, a little more aggressive than consensus, but I think I like it after seeing the overnight runs. Think we should hit the low end pretty easily and there’s opportunity for the high end depending on how round 2 sets up/how strong round 1 is. Still not convinced the dryslot is as dramatic as advertised, although it’s definitely real to some extent.

I’ll be at Clarke’s 12/21 or 12/23 at 7 PM if you are. Anyone else in?

Took long enough yesterday but when we finally flipped back to all snow a little before 3 it was worth the wait. Ended up with 4” but most of it after lifts closed, today should be nice for the lucky folks that don’t have to go to work, sadly I’m not one of them so I got to spend 3:45 on 93 getting back to Boston instead, Plymouth to Tilton in the heart of that band was 15 mph and cars in the ditch all over the place.

Yeah, I’d be happy with 4-6 cm at this rate. But hey a ski days a ski day! Radar looks like there’s some banding through the central whites that may be all snow, but we’re gonna get fringed here for a while it seems. Hopefully the whole thing goes away and 93 isn’t a skating rink on the way down.

-RN 34f at Loon, skiing is surprisingly not bad despite the soggy ambiance. Good news is that I don’t think K did any better based on radar?

Snowing on top, mix further down, although it seems to be doing nothing at the moment. 1/2” or so on the summit, have a hard time believing that we’ll hit the 4-7” forecast but a few quick bands this afternoon would go a long way.

28 with flurries in Lincoln, coating so far.

That's very true and I agree completely. I remember we used to see models establish in 2-3 camps, they'd persist for several runs, then one caved to the other and we'd have some sort of consensus - most of my discussions would be something along the lines of "the NAM caved to the Euro". Now over the last couple seasons it seems like we get consensus much faster (4-5 days out even) and then lose it several times as the models become much more sensitive to variations in data. I'm sure we'll adapt and become less trusting with time, but it definitely takes some getting used to for forecasting. My unscientific hunch from a data science perspective is that higher resolution and more frequent panels is making things more sensitive and compounding errors, but I don't have anything to back that up. Has more sampling data been added over the last couple of years? That could explain things as well to an extent, but I don't believe there have been expansions? Take it all with a grain of salt because I don't really know the details of how models work behind the scenes, but interesting to think about for sure.

Not only has this one had one huge change, it's arguably had three; went NW, then went pretty far SE, then came back and now seems to be going SE again. And all inside 72 ish hours. Wild. Not sure what's causing this, but it only seems to be more and more prevalent in modeling over the last couple of winters, sure makes this a more aggravating (but also more enjoyable) hobby. Updated BTV/GYX maps seem reasonable, but I still think there's time for changes here given how variable this has been. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Probably will make the final call tomorrow morning on 93N, but would like to have some idea nailed down tonight, definitely still have some time though as you said for this to go either way. Yup, closest mountain to Boston that's what I would consider a large resort (2k+ of vert) with great snowmaking, decent natural, and some pretty fun terrain. Unfortunately that means it's often a gongshow on busy weekends, but it's still a great time if you know the place and know where to not go. Guess we'll see what happens over the next couple of runs, too bad Sugarbush has so little open as they'd be the winner here. They generally are pretty aggressive opening things on natural but probably need another storm or two first.

That was my gut feel as well, Loon probably has the higher ceiling but also a far lower floor. Should be a fun one regardless, could be 55* and raining so I’ll take what I can get in November.

If you were gonna ski tomorrow would you do Loon, Killington, or make the haul to Sugarbush on limited terrain because the other two have too much of a mixing risk? My gut says Loon and K will be okay but the mix line flirts too closely to both of them for my taste.

Prepping the skis to launch for Loon; I’d think their far enough north to remain all snow and it seems like the QPF axis will be pretty similar between there and SR so an hour less driving is appealing. This has been quite the back and forth on the guidance, wouldn’t be surprised if we keep seeing more ticks as it’s a pretty sensitive setup. Good to be back model watching again, forgot how addictive this hobby can be, but gonna be a long winter if every system is this turbulent in the short-mid range.

12/21 or 12/23 please, never made one of these in my 5 years in Boston since I’m always traveling and am again this year but I’ll be back by then and would love to finally meet some folks in person. First weekend in December would work well too.

A+ day at Sugarbush today, never made it over to Castlerock (bootpacking/skating are both not great for my bad knees and we were having too much fun on the lift-served stuff) but the rest didn't disappoint. Tons of pow on Lixi's Twist Entering the white room on Heavens Gate - later in the afternoon when the winds picked up it was pure whiteout on the chair, couldn't see the next tower ahead of you. Nat taking a break on Paradise More Paradise (I think?) Me on Stein's Don't remember what this one was, maybe Stein's again? We lapped it because it was so good the first time. The pics from the trees are all on my friend's phone since my old iPhone hates the cold, but you can imagine what you think they'd look like and you were right. Plenty of 2-3' untracked pillows of snow in the trees all day. Back at it at SR on Saturday but everywhere should still be incredible. Go go go!

Any thoughts or opinions on a trip to Revelstoke in March given the current outlook for winter? Obviously they're not favored in a Nino setup but beyond that I really have no idea what their climo/pattern/favorability is.

Took a two hour ski tour around the hill during the height of the banding (5:30 - 7:30 ish) and that redeemed a lot of the negatives about this event. Not sure what the final was here since I didn't keep any measurements but likely a respectable amount in the end - 15" ish?

Yeah we're doing much better now - not pounding yet but solid improvement in flake size and fluff factor. Heading up to the top of the hill to attempt to build a ski jump shortly since driving to wawa is probably a no go right now.

Finally starting to pick up here - let's make this band count!

Embrace the bust.

Looks like the ocean band is dying. Congrats IJD-ORH-MHT on this storm it looks like.

Better than flurries which is what we've got right now. Not sure why I'm surprised that ORH stole our snow - seems to happen in every banded event