SR Airglow

Flakes in Boston!

Flurries in the Back Bay.

I’d assume it’s that 24 hour criteria is 8” and that it’s spread out over close to 48 here, but I definitely LOLed at the 4-11” advisory for CT when I checked BOX this morning. This is what @WxWatcher007 went with yesterday evening for CT, a little more aggressive than consensus, but I think I like it after seeing the overnight runs. Think we should hit the low end pretty easily and there’s opportunity for the high end depending on how round 2 sets up/how strong round 1 is. Still not convinced the dryslot is as dramatic as advertised, although it’s definitely real to some extent.

I’ll be at Clarke’s 12/21 or 12/23 at 7 PM if you are. Anyone else in?

Took long enough yesterday but when we finally flipped back to all snow a little before 3 it was worth the wait. Ended up with 4” but most of it after lifts closed, today should be nice for the lucky folks that don’t have to go to work, sadly I’m not one of them so I got to spend 3:45 on 93 getting back to Boston instead, Plymouth to Tilton in the heart of that band was 15 mph and cars in the ditch all over the place.

Yeah, I’d be happy with 4-6 cm at this rate. But hey a ski days a ski day! Radar looks like there’s some banding through the central whites that may be all snow, but we’re gonna get fringed here for a while it seems. Hopefully the whole thing goes away and 93 isn’t a skating rink on the way down.

-RN 34f at Loon, skiing is surprisingly not bad despite the soggy ambiance. Good news is that I don’t think K did any better based on radar?

Snowing on top, mix further down, although it seems to be doing nothing at the moment. 1/2” or so on the summit, have a hard time believing that we’ll hit the 4-7” forecast but a few quick bands this afternoon would go a long way.

28 with flurries in Lincoln, coating so far.

That's very true and I agree completely. I remember we used to see models establish in 2-3 camps, they'd persist for several runs, then one caved to the other and we'd have some sort of consensus - most of my discussions would be something along the lines of "the NAM caved to the Euro". Now over the last couple seasons it seems like we get consensus much faster (4-5 days out even) and then lose it several times as the models become much more sensitive to variations in data. I'm sure we'll adapt and become less trusting with time, but it definitely takes some getting used to for forecasting. My unscientific hunch from a data science perspective is that higher resolution and more frequent panels is making things more sensitive and compounding errors, but I don't have anything to back that up. Has more sampling data been added over the last couple of years? That could explain things as well to an extent, but I don't believe there have been expansions? Take it all with a grain of salt because I don't really know the details of how models work behind the scenes, but interesting to think about for sure.

Not only has this one had one huge change, it's arguably had three; went NW, then went pretty far SE, then came back and now seems to be going SE again. And all inside 72 ish hours. Wild. Not sure what's causing this, but it only seems to be more and more prevalent in modeling over the last couple of winters, sure makes this a more aggravating (but also more enjoyable) hobby. Updated BTV/GYX maps seem reasonable, but I still think there's time for changes here given how variable this has been. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Probably will make the final call tomorrow morning on 93N, but would like to have some idea nailed down tonight, definitely still have some time though as you said for this to go either way. Yup, closest mountain to Boston that's what I would consider a large resort (2k+ of vert) with great snowmaking, decent natural, and some pretty fun terrain. Unfortunately that means it's often a gongshow on busy weekends, but it's still a great time if you know the place and know where to not go. Guess we'll see what happens over the next couple of runs, too bad Sugarbush has so little open as they'd be the winner here. They generally are pretty aggressive opening things on natural but probably need another storm or two first.

That was my gut feel as well, Loon probably has the higher ceiling but also a far lower floor. Should be a fun one regardless, could be 55* and raining so I’ll take what I can get in November.

If you were gonna ski tomorrow would you do Loon, Killington, or make the haul to Sugarbush on limited terrain because the other two have too much of a mixing risk? My gut says Loon and K will be okay but the mix line flirts too closely to both of them for my taste.