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JC-CT

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Everything posted by JC-CT

  1. JC-CT
    That's exactly what meso models are for.
  2. JC-CT
    13z hrrr seems to have initialized pretty well with current radar. Rather than coalescing bands, it just slides them east and weakens them.
  3. JC-CT
    Nope
  4. JC-CT
    Just lost power, mthrfkr
  5. JC-CT
    By the time the storm is over, it will probably be showing nothing at all!
  6. JC-CT
    2.5" on the new snow board I built over the weekend. Quite a bit higher than my usual measuring spot - the ground.
  7. JC-CT
    That makes me want weathertap
  8. JC-CT
    No power...no thanks. Been there done that fck that.
  9. JC-CT
    Yeah, jeez everything sticking to windows and trees. Hopefully temp should drop soon
  10. JC-CT
    I can't even remember any of those storms from last year.
  11. JC-CT
    If we stopped using the NAM as a synoptic model, we would have realized that the Euro was on an island.
  12. JC-CT
    Look for consensus, identify trends, evaluate consistency with prior runs and current observations, use ensemble forecasting, make imperfect forecasts.
  13. JC-CT
    Seriously though...for synoptic evolution, never look at the NAM. It has it's place in forecasting convection, and possibly looking at CAD. But models like GFS, CMC, UKMET and even the JMA kick its butt at h5 every single time and should be used to search for a consensus before the NAM is ever touched.
  14. JC-CT
    And...there is a reason that ensemble forecasting does so well. Blend the general consensus (of globals - NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM)
  15. JC-CT
    Same old, same old? and especially NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM lol
  16. JC-CT
    Yeah nice job Scott.Btw, people looking at Euro snowfall verbatim compared to 12z...don't forget what already fell.
  17. JC-CT
    Details please?
  18. JC-CT
    Yeah....Euro is not going to fail 3-6 hours out. It will tell us the answer in 30 minutes.
  19. JC-CT
    Good...never been great at eyeballing it, but like I said the flakes are really being pulverized by the wind, which is starting to howl.
  20. JC-CT
    You know I live just SE of him. Flakes are just being demolished though
  21. JC-CT
    None of these latest model runs have any practical meaning. Any preparations are already made, or not made.
  22. JC-CT
    Agree. But it has been ticking, just ticking, east the last two runs.
  23. JC-CT
    It's something to do with blue and red L's
  24. JC-CT
    Had to repost this from somewhere else, too awesome http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-71.42,38.72,2494
  25. JC-CT
    The Euro was also too far west. As usual, the blend is your friend.
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