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JC-CT

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Everything posted by JC-CT

  1. JC-CT
    Lol
  2. JC-CT
    FFS
  3. JC-CT
    I swear the band is going to pivot and move east about 3 miles to my east.
  4. JC-CT
    you might want to check that
  5. JC-CT
    just got mine back, woot woot! better than a JP any day
  6. JC-CT
    @Damage In Tolland we probably have until about 4pm to make hay until this pulls out to our east.
  7. JC-CT
    slooooooooooowly improving snow growth
  8. JC-CT
    3.4 as of 8am, haven't checked since but it's been pretty spotty and I'm on a conference call. I just want my damn power.
  9. JC-CT
    Wouldn't be at all surprised if you were closing in on double digits back home
  10. JC-CT
    I'm sure it is
  11. JC-CT
    That's exactly what meso models are for.
  12. JC-CT
    13z hrrr seems to have initialized pretty well with current radar. Rather than coalescing bands, it just slides them east and weakens them.
  13. JC-CT
    Nope
  14. JC-CT
    Just lost power, mthrfkr
  15. JC-CT
    By the time the storm is over, it will probably be showing nothing at all!
  16. JC-CT
    2.5" on the new snow board I built over the weekend. Quite a bit higher than my usual measuring spot - the ground.
  17. JC-CT
    That makes me want weathertap
  18. JC-CT
    No power...no thanks. Been there done that fck that.
  19. JC-CT
    Yeah, jeez everything sticking to windows and trees. Hopefully temp should drop soon
  20. JC-CT
    I can't even remember any of those storms from last year.
  21. JC-CT
    It's hard to bust on a probabilistic forecast.
  22. JC-CT
    If we stopped using the NAM as a synoptic model, we would have realized that the Euro was on an island.
  23. JC-CT
    Look for consensus, identify trends, evaluate consistency with prior runs and current observations, use ensemble forecasting, make imperfect forecasts.
  24. JC-CT
    Seriously though...for synoptic evolution, never look at the NAM. It has it's place in forecasting convection, and possibly looking at CAD. But models like GFS, CMC, UKMET and even the JMA kick its butt at h5 every single time and should be used to search for a consensus before the NAM is ever touched.
  25. JC-CT
    And...there is a reason that ensemble forecasting does so well. Blend the general consensus (of globals - NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM)
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