Windspeed

Good to know. Thanks!

Yikes...

Good morning. I suspect we're in for a long evening and night. Good luck to everyone as far as hail or wind damage. And don't forget to unplug your sensitive electronics and hardware if you're going to be away from your home this afternoon-evening. Sometimes surge & ups fail and warranties can't replace everything.

Cyclone Marcus has been quite nuisance for Darwin and Kimberley in N. Australia the past few days. The core will be pulling away from the coast on Monday and will put on quite a show this week in the SE Indian Ocean. Forecast reasoning and modeling suggests a rapidly intensifying and prolonged cyclone event and Marcus may reach Category 5. Fortunately it will be doing so a good distance away from land.

**Warning: Loud volume with explicit language** I saw this video on another site that mentioned near Etowah. Save your ears and adjust volume down prior to viewing.

SPC is definitely leaving the door open for a possible upgrade as well: "Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established."

The Lawrenceburg footage is very intense. Perhaps the most violent tornado ever recorded in Tennessee on video. Though the 20 mile path traversed sparsely populated communities, still quite miraculous that it resulted in no deaths.

Day of the EF-4 Henryville, Ind. tornado: ..and that same day near Chattanooga, an EF-3 hit Ooltewah and Cleveland, Tenn., and also this EF-2 in Etowah:

Those super cells earlier produced some minor wind damage reports but nothing tornadic fortunately. Probably haven't seen the last FFWs tonight though. Some serious heavy rainfall in these cells over NE AL and NW GA.

Some organizing supercells moving towards north-central Alabama. Weak rotation but nothing yet tornadic.

Gita is a gorgeous cyclone. The status is currently at Category 4. Though it temporarily reached Category 5 yesterday, it has maintained a fairly steady large eye and taken on some annular characteristics. A reminder that categories in the S. Pacific and Australia are not the same as the N. Pacific and N. Atlantic.

Did it not snow fairly significantly in the eastern Valley following weekend after the March 12-13th event as well? I believe we were around 14" officially at KTRI for the Blizzard of '93 event, though closer to 18" on average at our house. But later that next week I seem to recall an additional 3-6" off a seperate clipper. Edit: Nope, I'm getting the '96 blizzard mixed up with the '93 blizzard. Also, looking at the intervals of time between major blizzards during my childhood and teenage years is depressing.

Severe Cylcone Gita is churning away in the S. Pacific near Tonga. It is still classified a Cat 4 based on latest advisory, though, based on over-night imagery, it may have weakened temporarily or gone through an ERC. That process appears to have completed as the eye is again clearing out. The core will cross through a favorable environment and higher SSTs the next 24-48 hours. As such, Gita may not yet have reached its maximum intensity. The core will pass very close if not over the island of Ono-i-Lau very close to or at Cat 5 intensity.

https://africatimes.com/2018/01/05/madagascar-prepares-for-tropical-storm-ava-impacts/

A new peer-reviewed study in the British Royal Meteorological Society journal Weather is proposing that Super Typhoon Haiyan is likely the most intense cyclone ever observed in the Satellite Era. They believe the center eye pressure peaked near 860 mb. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3045/full I have always argued that Haiyan remains the most intense cyclone we have witnessed in modern times. Had there been reconnaissance, no other cyclone's intensity data sets would top it. This paper puts that in perspective for me. I had no idea the station reading at Guiuan existed. Recorded 18 miles from center fix and measured to 910 mb, that observation is bloody insane! Even loosely estimating gradient, a center pressure of 866 mb is calculated. The authors settled on 861 mb and rounded to 860 mb based on a few variables. The eyewall had held a steady state in the 30 hrs following the last visible completion of an ERC. The coldest tower tops around the immediate wall were not warming at the recording of that surface pressure. The diameter of the eye had actually decreased slightly. Given Haiyan was positioned against the southern periphery of an amplified subtropical ridge (STR) at the time, imbedded in an above mean surface pressure regime, the pressure gradient most likely was not loose at that obs timestamp. They still did not go with the tightest gradient scenario however. The following is an excellent write-up by Bob Henson discussing the paper over at underground: This may all be semantics and the WMO may or may not take this new research into consideration for crowning Haiyan the most intense on record. But at least from a meteorological standpoint, that surface pressure ob is great evidence to support just why Haiyan's satellite presentation at that timestamp has no equal. Had there been a recon flight around that time, in my mind, the windspeeds would have no doubt been the strongest ever recorded in a tropical cyclone. Obviously, this is still speculation, but I believe it was at least 185 kts or equal to Major Hurricane Patricia. But given the surface pressure obs 18 miles from center fix and given the pressure environment, Haiyan may very well have had higher sustained winds. I realize It is difficult to fathom a 190-200 kts cyclone. But keep in mind, even though Patricia had a tiny core, it was imbedded in a surface trough. The hurricane was moving into a weakness by means of an advancing mid-to-upper trough and southwesterly steering regime. Haiyan's synoptic pattern contrasts significantly as the cyclone was imbedded within a moderate easterly steering flow against a strong mid-level ridge and higher surface pressures. Obviously, we will never know for certain Haiyan's peak windspeeds with the absence of reconnaissance. After considering all these factors and the new paper, however, I am confident Haiyan is the most intense system even if unofficial. To me it remains the Godzilla of tropical cyclones.

I like this system to undergo a period rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hrs into landfall. I think this makes landfall stronger than 80kts. Perhaps even reaches Category 3. The core is getting established and the upper environment is clearly favorable. 27-28°C SSTs should support sufficient enough instability given the divergence aloft and jetstreak to the north.

^Likely. But the cyclone did inflict some horrific devestation and loss of life. It hit two major fleets and several large ports so fortunately plenty of details were logged that can be ironed out from a meteorological standpoint. Hopefully they don't spend the entire episode in Weenieville.

With respect to the recent impacts on the Lesser & Greater Antilles and US territories, PBS NOVA is airing a new documentary that focuses on the deadliest Altantic major hurricane in the historical record, The Great Hurricane of 1780. http://player.pbs.org/viralplayer/3005566471/

Here is a longer version with footage from the eyewall.

Here's a blast from the past: Anyone remember Major Hurricane Elena? It is another example of a hurricane that intensified significantly while over the shallow shelf waters of the northern Gulf. Elena reached upper Category 3 intensity with maximum estimated winds of 110 kts, but did weaken slightly to 100 kts in the hours just before landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi. I think we should realize, however, that Elena was its own worst enemy. It spent nearly four days in the same general region of the Gulf. The circulation took on slow and erratic movement ENE before looping sharply back to the WNW. This motion was due to interaction with a fast moving weak upper level shortwave trough that lifted and left Elena behind. The 500 mb weakness filled and allowed a ridge to take the wheel. Prolonged meandering and drift of the circulation likely did upwell cooler water from the previous days. This combined with the core's close proximity to the coast on its WNW track prior to landfall perhaps did prevent Elena from becoming a Category 4. The highest official coastal measurements were 92 kts sustained with 118 kts gust on Dauphin Is., Alabama, and gusts of 105 kts in Gulfport, Miss. Elena is also one of the few early and rare moments where a successful storm chaser was lucky enough to have a quality camera on the ground inside the eye at landfall. The chaser filmed the clear blue sky overhead and the beautiful concave eyewall seen @ 1m 20s. A stunning shot made even more impressive that this was captured in 1985.

115 kts ... massive wind radiii: Near or at landfall:

They can handle a Cat 2/3, yes, they have sea walls and well built structures. But that's besides the point. Even a Cat 2, don't take it seriously and it hits a densely populated area, see what happens. And just based on current motion, 15-20kt of weakening is probably close to the mark. It wouldn't be good and it will cause destruction. Nobody was hyping this. Edit: Current intensity is 125 kts and that may even be high. Earlier, when Lan looked a lot better, mind you, I made the 15-20 kt comment based on its appearance versus rapid forward motion. It's down to 125 kts. So give me the benefit of the doubt of 20 kts. You win. It will clearly weaken more than 20 kts. Probably 30 kts by landfall. Congratulations. I apologize for overhyping a 135 kt typhoon based on a worry of rapid motion. A Cat 2/3 landfall was forecast throughout and that is likely what it will be. Never called for anything higher, but you are correct. I insinuated hype with the word "worry" that it wouldn't weaken below Cat 3. It most likely will. Cheers!

That is your definition of hype? The core is in rapid motion. It's a worry vs I should just call it a windy day and move on?

Please quote me hyping this typhoon. Quote any words. I beg you. You are ridiculous.

I just do not see what your point is here. Who has made a call this will landfall as a Super Typhoon? Look at the forecast. It's still serious for Japan.