Windspeed

I expected MDR SSTs to produce a Cat 4/5 CV hurricane this season, just not in October. Crazy what Atlantic TCs can do when atmospheric conditions switch to favorable. I mean, obviously, we've seen numerous powerful CV majors over the years during peak September. It's just been a weird season. Beryl rolls off and explodes in late June, followed by three months of late intensfiers near land; then Atlantic environmental conditions finally improve, and the MDR looks like September 3rd, not October 3rd.

Rainy and windy. Gale warnings and definitely TS force gusts, perhaps some hurricane force gusts, but Helene would be far enough along in its post transition to have a spread out gradient by that point. Still, it is a hefty low pressure and windy for certain, but those folks aren't strangers to strong mid-latitudinal cyclones.

Major Hurricane Kirk will be moving over increasingly warm SSTs. It should cross over 29+ SSTs for several days, though, as the forecast calls for increasing shear by the weekend, its MPI should come down. Regardless, this is a powerful hurricane and should pack on the ACE while being fun to track without all the prior drama we've had to deal with this season. Barring some sharp hook into the Azores, Kirk should remain no threat to land.

If Kirk just follows the forecast intensity guidance for the remainder of its life cycle, it should get the Atlantic back to average seasonal ACE numbers, if not put it above. If Leslie can follow its intensity guidance, we should be above average by a good amount; however, unless the rest of October goes crazy, it would be quite a long shot to reach the lofty hyperactive seasonal forecasts from earlier in the year. That's the good news. There is, unfortunately, plenty of season left for something in the Caribbean to form, which obviously would increase a land threat, but hopefully, we can avoid any more devestating landfalls to close out what has been a bad season regardless.

Yeah, I just noticed that and made the correction. lol... I've no doubt Kirk is going to reach Category 4 now.

Multiple VHTs rotating around the eyewall. I'd imagine Kirk will continue intensifying. Category four definitely looks attainable before in moves into cooler SSTs. Should be a big ACE producer.

Helene broke many September pressure records for the SE region: https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1840475902737846729?t=x0t-G1ommyEyZ4OwvoAw3w&s=19

Would have been the SE quadrant based on storm motion, most likely the ESE inner edge of eyewall band, when it had its most intense echoes while intersecting the shoreline. This flow coming off the north side of Deadman Bay. This would have been just NW of Steinhatchee within the Big Bend Wildlife Management Area. Nobody was there to record or document it, of course, unless they were recording on the back end route, Beach Road. At least that we yet know about.

Helene broke September pressure records for the region: https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1840475902737846729?t=x0t-G1ommyEyZ4OwvoAw3w&s=19

I am so sorry. Heartbreaking. Please let us know if you hear anything.

RE: Big ACE producers, wiith background mean SSTs still quite above normal across the MDR, we could see some late records fall. I believe Lorenzo holds the record for furthest east Category 4 or greater after September 28th. But you would think it would be very rare for an MDR system to reach the CONUS with ridging giving way to a more typical Fall pattern / October troughs over the central Atlantic. The only one I can think of in recent decades is Matthew.

Perhaps we should make a Helene thread after all with everything unfolding. Pretty much everything here back to post #266 has been about Helene. How difficult would it be for @Mr Bob or one of the mods to mass move all posts after Carver's first post about it into that thread for posterity? If it's too much of a pain, never mind.

RE: Federal, those areas being in Virginia, the governor and state has to request a declaration. I know NC, SC, GA, FL and TN did request. But I still don't know if VA has. Edit: Nevermind, Youngkin did request prior to Helene. https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2024/september/name-1033958-en.html Perhaps more gaurd is needed or that's already underway, but there were some gaurd and resources previously mobilized.

Acapulco has had it rough since Major Hurricane Otis. Hurricane John's day after day of heavy rainfall has taken its toll. https://twitter.com/Jonatan93294410/status/1839850625141547192?t=4yGiZOUnFEqv5HXACVcFPA&s=19

We just got our power back on, and I'm trying to catch up. Just dumbfounded at the devastation across the mountainous areas of Western NC and East TN. We lost some trees in our neighborhood that took out our power. Interestingly, the mid-level 700 hPa vortex remnant eye actually made it all the way across the mountains into upper NE Tennessee and crossed Holston River watershed. The winds were gusting 50-60 mph, and there had to be downsloping off the adjacent mountain ranges into the hill country of Sevier, Greene, Unicoi, Washington, Carter, Sullivan and Johnson. But to my amazement, it was after the vortex passed over, we had very strong southerly-to-southwestward wind gusts that just obliterated trees everywhere. Some of those gusts had to top 70 mph. It's by far the worst wind for the Tricities region since the Blizzard of '93, and I am certain it surpassed that superstorm. Nothing else comes close. It has me wondering if it was due to extratropical transition with the 800-500 mb vortex and some kind of baroclinic sting jet flow into the south side of it. There was virtually no precip except for a frontal like line of showers on the east side when that occurred. Obviously, trees were already weakened substantially from the strong ESE flow versus soil saturation as Helene was crossing over the mountains. But again, the blast from the SW was crazy and was the straw that broke the camel's back. At the end of the day, I consider my neck of the woods very fortunate. One night without power and internet? Boohoo! Many have it so much worse. Parts of the region either flooded, had washed away communities, experienced mudflows, or a much worse state of downed trees and powerlines. It will be weeks to months before infrastructure is restored and perhaps some of these communities forever changed. The flooded counties in East Tennessee and Western Carolinas have experienced catastrophic damage. Not trying to ignore SC, GA, and Florida either. This will be a 100 billion plus disaster. My heart goes out to all those affected by this historic hurricane.

I wonder how 421, 321, 19E-221, 25, 181 and 441 have all faired. With the interstates closed, it looks like those are going to be the only direct major routes through the mountains to NC for now.

Well, that escalated quickly. Raining buckets now and pretty steady 20-30 mph ESE gusts. I will be shocked if there aren't widespread outages around KTRI if the wind gusts hit 50+. The trees are anchored by mashed potatoes at this point.

Getting a nice dryslot with flow over the mountains across the upper Holston Valley with low-level flow crossing over mountains. Air temperatures have climbed to 71° here as well. Will be interesting to see how long it takes the precipitation shield to power over as Helene moves across the spine of the Apps. At any rate, a nice break from the rain for now.

Helene still has a clear eye on the radar, though it might finally be starting to show signs of filling.

Harvey #blueshed versus Helene #whiteshed. Helene > Harvey.

This will easily be the worst hurricane impact for Georgia since David and perhaps far worse. The earlier statement this will be Georgia's Hugo unfortunately may end up applying here with respect to inland wind damage.

Impressive IR presentation given how inland Helene is now. Obviously, its rapid forward motion has a lot to do with the structure holding together so well. Perhaps some baroclinic enhancement to begin shortly with a hook left and phasing event with the ULL.

Steinhatchee getting blasted by onshore flow with the intense SE quadrant of the eyewall. Worst of the surge is likely occurring that location.

That is a heavily tree'd area near the coast. Going to be quite a mess.