Windspeed

Interesting thread/discussion. Of note, the entire Northern Hemisphere is only 55% of normal ACE for year date.

Idub thee a new Public Service Announcement. It will be known as the Idub PSA or IPSA. IPSA is a new non-profit organization to remind folks every day for the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season that a hyperactive season (ACE of 165+) will not occur in 2022. IPSA will be on repeat every day to remind you that though it was supposed to be hyperactive, the year is not hyperactive. Nor will it become hyperactive. So do not expect it to become hyperactive, even though it was supposed to. But you need to be reminded of this. You need it. Absolutely not hyperactive. IPSA. Every. Day.

Here is a recent ASCAT that puts perspective on how large and elongated the broad SW to NE oriented gyre remains for 91L. Point of TCG is very much still an uncertainty as it's too chaotic for any global to simulate with a high degree of accuracy which blob becomes dominate. So I would continue taking track resolutions with a grain of salt until we have a specific tighter low level vorticiy maximum organize and track/model. Admittedly, the northeastern most MCS is looking better at the moment. But it needs that SW MCS to die out to counter the continued elongation of the surface trough.

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it.

The beastly annular Super Typhoon Hinnamnor ongoing in the WPAC may threaten landfall near Okinawa in the coming days. Could be some interesting direction changes in its track with respect to the strong block and Fujiwara interaction to a developing TC to its south. Though as strong as Hinnamnor is and the upper ridge it is inducing, the extreme southern bend by the TC mesh models might be overdone as the second system may get sheared off and remain weak.

One thing is for certain, whatever pattern evolves in place for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season and Western Hemisphere, the ongoing La Niña is going to be one of the strongest well into the Winter months.

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some.

91L is an elongated mess right now with competing clusters of storms. There no longer appears to be any minimally organized surface vorticity with either cluster and just an overall broad SWrly to NErly stretched surface low. Until some deeper convection can concentrate along the axis somewhere and spawn a tighter vortmax, all we've got are the globals that simulate genesis. But these may be far off from where the actual point/location of TCG occurs IRL, if at all. So it might be best to consider and remind of the great uncertainty with any track guidance, as a 200 mile difference from TCG in the NE region of the wave is going to be modeled substantially different than TCG occurring in the SW most region of the wave, with varying degrees of resolved guidance.

Sarcasm aside, it's going to get active. No need to throw in the towel prior to peak. I'm down for a bunch of storms without them hitting the CONUS anyway and perhaps that will play out. Interesting to track minus the devastation we've experienced in recent years. And if it plays out that 2022 is a huge bust and the season remains silent, so be it. It's been a crazy stretch of years.

Then leave? We can handle the dead season and take it from here.[emoji846]

lol busting out the sock now eh?

lol bless your heart. You don't have a major to ravage the coastline. Guess you'll move on to a subforum Winter thread now? Peace out, homeslice!

Yeah there is a plethora of research on volcanic aerosols either from a coolant or greenhouse influence via SO2 or CO2 as it relates to specific large eruptive output. But Tonga is unique in that it forced a tremendous amount of H20 water vapor into the stratosphere rapidly. I suppose that's posing new questions about how and to what effects that may have where it appears the research is far more limited.

Yes, the large Tonga eruption. There is chatter ongoing that it might be having some subtle influence on present macro scale patterns like current ENSO state but it's early on speculation and just a hypothesis. I do not think it has been scientifically linked via research or proven yet.

Depends on the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) in charge I suppose. The NHC issues advisories in AST unless the cyclone enters or is classified a CONUS timezone. Though the advisory always specifies the UTC time as it should for archival purposes, the date of advisory package delineates its regional timezone (Edit: delinates for the eastern most weather and maritime offices, etc., it has to direct for TC packages, i.e., SJU in PR). So I suppose I would follow the AST timestamp for genesis in the Atlantic unless a CONUS timezone is more applicable to TC position.

Genesis is when the disturbance or invest is classified a depression. So yes, metrics for the cyclone count from date of genesis for archival purposes officially so I tend to follow that.

Possible, this is a hypothesis that will be researched. The amount of water vapor blasted into the atmosphere was significant, but was it enough to force suppression in the N. Atlantic basin? I'd buy into some influence support tanking ENSO for an abnormally strong third-year La Nina. The timing of a hyperactive EPAC in July was pretty wonky though. Really everything is a bit wack and needs looked into. Edit: I should clarify looked into relative to third year La Nina anomolies, not necessarily overall for the Atlantic tropical season as we're still not to a point I would claim it will not be a busy season, though obviously hyperactive looks far less possible now, though not yet out of possibility. We've seen some insane Septembers in the past 25 years.

Humble beginnings aren't unusual in this region of the MDR. Despite the anemic appearance, the envelope of the wave is quite large due to folding out of the eroded monsoonal trough / interaction with the AEW. The disturbance also has a nice buffer from subtropical arid airmass. These factors should allow it to at least maintain into more favorable environmental conditions further west if not continued slow organization. I think the ECMWF and its enemble suites are going to beat out the GFS on not only genesis but ultimately downstream intensity due to the latter's mishandling of synoptic forcing from a Caribbean system that doesn't appear to be evolving.

Count, tropical cyclone days (TCD), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and pressure accumulated cyclone energy (PACE) are officially binned within the scientific community by month of genesis.

GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles.

Notably the 6z ECMWF run didn't lose the system still develops a closed depression within the 2-day range.

12z ECMWF tries to close off a dominate surface vortmax with the monsoonal feature around 56-66 hrs. Obviously dependant evolution of the overall gyre. But this is the feature that it develops into a hurricane as it traverses into the western basin.

May need an invest at the least out of the monsoonal feature soon. There is notable covergent banding establishing to the WNW of the mid-level circulation. The system is beginning to show signs of breaking/folding off from the WSW oriented surface trough and we may see tighter surface vort form / TCG in the next 24-36 hrs.

That's only suggestive of the pure AEW near to the Verdes however. The potential TCG from the monsoonal trough gets captured under a WAR scenario, which could lead to potential land threat. So that needs to be watched.

Laura in 2020 had some epic long sustained 120+ mph wind on the ship anemometer during landfall that was caught on video before it failed as far as recent examples.