Windspeed

Notably the 6z ECMWF run didn't lose the system still develops a closed depression within the 2-day range.

12z ECMWF tries to close off a dominate surface vortmax with the monsoonal feature around 56-66 hrs. Obviously dependant evolution of the overall gyre. But this is the feature that it develops into a hurricane as it traverses into the western basin.

May need an invest at the least out of the monsoonal feature soon. There is notable covergent banding establishing to the WNW of the mid-level circulation. The system is beginning to show signs of breaking/folding off from the WSW oriented surface trough and we may see tighter surface vort form / TCG in the next 24-36 hrs.

That's only suggestive of the pure AEW near to the Verdes however. The potential TCG from the monsoonal trough gets captured under a WAR scenario, which could lead to potential land threat. So that needs to be watched.

Laura in 2020 had some epic long sustained 120+ mph wind on the ship anemometer during landfall that was caught on video before it failed as far as recent examples.

This is the best developed AEW we've seen so far this season and I believe it will be the one to watch going forward. Already possess a very robust circulation around the embedded low. It is also at a low latitude for when it exits Africa. Should be south of the Cabo Verdes.

We somehow lost a big dump of fantastic meteorological threads. It is such a shame all that historical discussion is gone. Sure, there were plenty of bad takes. But we were frequented by some really good experts and mets, and blessed a plethora of knowledge.

Really depends on where (if) a low can close off within the axis for potential downstream intensification. The overall wave is just a little too far north where SSTs are probably too marginal for significant development. However, if any circulation develops further south, it will have a much better envelope for development. I am kind of meh on this for now. We shall see...

[emoji849]

It's 300+ hrs out. Global OPs are going to fantasy 'cane a gazillion times during climatological peak. Then lose them. Then bring them back., etc., etc., ad nauseam. Who cares... Focus on the ensembles. Or go ahead and continue posting 384 hr maps because, Sept. 3rd, really? Ugh... Edit: Wait, I just noticed that was Idub who posted that. I feel Rick Rolled.

Beating a dead horse about this on every seasonal thread this time of year, but long range operationals are only good for glancing at their simulated patterns and not worth latching onto specific system fodder. That being anything 200 hrs out especially. The ensemble suites are far better for eyeballing potential systems that have not developed yet. That being said, it does look like things are about to come alive, right on cue. It still looks like things will become more favorable after the 21st. And there is notable low-shear envelopes across the basin to play with. We shall see.

That is in the mid- levels however. Though may help to relax the screaming Azores to Saharan link in 700hpa easterly jet for those trains of SAL intrusions. At any rate, we typically see wave breaking slow down around early August as WAR heights increase. If anything, this particular Azores low may allow the ITCZ to gain some latitude before SPHP cell rebuilds. Watching these perturbations play out for years prior to the MDR/CV flips. I think there might be some slight potential for MDR development next week, but I'm not really expecting any substantial increase in activity until around the 21st. The environment is just not there yet. That AEW the models have latched onto needs to have a really good low-level moisture envelope around it and a well established surface low. We'll see in a few days...

A difference of 20 ACE is nothing even if technically it drops below the loose definition of a hyperactive season. CSU only lowered their totals to 18 and still calls for 4 major hurricanes. I do think forecasting a hyperactive year is a bit of a gamble. Those years seem to have some atmospheric "luck" where everyhing just falls into place near to the ASO stretch beyond even what long range modeling can precursor. But there was scientific reasoning based on long range indicators back in May-June that suggested a hyperactive season was possible. We've also been in an above-active stretch for the ASOs of 2017-present. But who knows, we've had some crazy years not get going until the last week of August when environmental conditions improved rapidly. 2004 and 2017 come to mind, not that I am suggesting anything like those. An active ASO seems reasonable still and I like the updated CSU and NOAA forecasts here.

And right on queue, here comes the NOAA update as well. Still calling for an above-average outlook.

^Essentially a small drop in seasonal numbers and about 20 points of total ACE, but still calling for an above normal, even very active season, but no longer calling for a hyperactive ASO.

Training cells are definitely a concern into the evening. Some portions of Sullivan Co. are pushing 2" already. Hopefully this convection can lift over the Apps. in a hurry.

Small cells keep passing over each hour but heavy rates with each one. Ground is pretty saturated. If coverage starts to expand this evening and train over the region tonight, I expect there will be some flooding streams. MWX just put out an advisory as well...

lol, someone hurry up and notify Dr. Klotzbach that he needs rejustify and explain his numbers again for the ASO on July 26th. There is a climatological genius on AmericanWx that demands it. [emoji849]