Jump to content

Windspeed

Members
  • Posts

    4,611
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. I think this is a depression as well and probably will be classified this afternoon, if not certainly by 5PM. That radar imagery and the low-level cloud flow is too much to ignore. It looks like TCG literally occurred just prior or during that loop. Hopefully the NHC can get reconnaissance moved up to this evening. As for steering flow and what this is going to do the next 24-48 hrs. Does it drift west over the Yucatan or remain over the straits? Possibly meander into the SE GOM? Huge implications over the slightest movements now we clearly have a COC.
  2. The only thing is perhaps land interaction as the ECMWF wants to shove the low inland. The GFS is also very close, meandering the low over or near to the Rivera Maya. They don't see TCG until Sunday into Monday, and it's 2-3 days before the steering flow lifts the TC northward. I think the modeling has to be taken seriously, but clearly they could be way off if TCG occurs today and the vortex remains over water.
  3. Sorry, bro. Better practice Idalia. Like a vidalia onion, only no "V"....
  4. I'm not so sure an LLC hasn't consolidated under the canopy. There is some very suspicious motion in the low-level cloud field since daybreak. If a low-level vort hasn't formed, it sure looks like it's going to be genes'ing in short order today. There is also a very clearly low-level west flow just to the south and ESE of Cozumel.
  5. We currently do not have a flight plan for Invest 93L tomorrow. They do mention 93L in the outlook for Sunday. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON FRANKLIN. B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20.0N 86.2W FOR 27/1800Z. C. A POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z. They may however have to move something up to tomorrow. I'm a little surprised at how quickly convection is consolidating and maintaining persistence. I think this disturbance may be ahead of modeling in organization. No we do not yet have an LLC. Still, if deep convection does persist in the same general location, it may not take that long to tighten the broader circulation into something. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the disturbance hanging around the Yucatan for several days before it lifts north. Neither really close a low until Sunday. The ECMWF meanders that low inland over the Yucatan for some time as well. Yet here we are with all this convection focusing pretty far east of those modeling trends. Intriguing to watch unfold.
  6. Wow, that nascent low-level circulation looks to be consolidating much further east than modeled. That may keep this off the Yucatan entirely as the disturbance continues to evolve.
  7. Yeah, it seems the mid-level shear is persisting and really doing a number on Franklin at this time.
  8. Well, I mean, we did just have what would normally be a mid-to-late August Caribbean cruiser get smacked to all hell, then get kicked NNE of the Greaters by unrelenting Caribbean SW flow. Hrmmm.... But we may still get a major out this thanks to near virtually perfect timing.
  9. Looks like Franklin is going to find itself in an area of favorable upper divergence and a pocket of low wind shear in a few days as it swings west of Bermuda. Should be a solid poleward outflow jet to exhaust. Franklin is our first shot at a major. The TC models like it. Hopefully, it steers clear of coastal Canada. The Atlantic may find big ACE producers tough to come with uncertainties in the overall ASO pattern, but Franklin may give us a little bit here if it can go off over the weekend.
  10. There is nothing on radar to suggest rapid development of a core occurring. It's just a slow and steady organizing cyclone. Folks there will gladly handle a little wind to get the beneficial rains for southern Texas. Now, if we can just get one of these into the Houston region and north-central Texas.
  11. It's got perhaps 30 hrs left before landfall? If it can get a core established, it has a shot at minimal cane. That obviously would require a pretty impressive period of RI. But with the favorable upper environment and SSTs being so high, I'd say chances of RI are decent if that core can get established by this evening. Even if that doesn't occur, it should still be an intensifying TS into landfall.
  12. A strong fetch is in place off the Baja with placement of Hilary's low and low-level jet. This event looks to be living up to the hype.
  13. Hopefully, it's not a precursor event. LA can handle a 5.1 and smaller. But with all the ongoing flooding, we definitely don't want to see anything stronger.
  14. There is an EQ swarm occurring near Ojai, CA.
  15. Just became Franklin, and you must be confusing this system (topic) with the Gulf of Mexico system. Franklin will not be a threat to the Gulf but could pose some interaction with the Mid-Atlantic to New England depending on how modeling evolves and trough vs western Atlantic ridging interaction.
  16. Yeah, this is looking like a really significant flash flooding event for many areas of SoCal.
  17. The issue here is a western MDR TUTT. The GFS seems to drive a TC through it, north of the Greater Antilles; but obviously that scenario isn't ideal for westward moving TC into WNW steering flow. I wouldn't get too excited yet. The pattern is crap for any long range CV system. We're just going to have to see what early September brings. I am not confident for above normal activity. I already stated this. We'll see... Yes, of course a home-grown frontal remnant system could develop or a CAG system in the western Caribbean. But that is very low probability. It's just going to take some serious patience to see how this all irons out. To put it mildly, I think the whole setup is garbage. Regardless of the AMO state, I do not like the upper level environment and state of subsidence right now.
  18. Hurricane Dora is only a few hours from crossing the dateline and becoming a typhoon. Shear is noticably increasing as well.
  19. Dora looks healthy again after a bout with shear. Only a temporary reprieve as southwesterly shear is forecast to pick up again on Friday, or Saturday, rather, as it will have crossed the dateline and became a typhoon.
  20. Very strong trades have been wreaking havoc on Hawaii the past few days. Influenced by tight gradient funneling between the strong ridge to the north and Major Hurricane Dora to the south. The Lee side of the volcanic topography and the gradient is fueling ongoing devastating wildfires.
  21. Dora is very intense with a presentation looking like a high end Cat 4 right now.
  22. 000 NOUS44 KMRX 081529 PNSMRX TNZ067-068-082200- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 1129 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023 ...Preliminary EF-2 Storm Damage of the Lovell Crossing Apartments, Knoxville Tennessee... The preliminary damage assessments of the Lovell Crossing Apartments in Knoxville Tennessee is a EF2 tornado with winds up to 130 mph and a path width of 200 yards. The National Weather Service office in Morristown TN will continue to assess the damage across the area today. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on Monday, August 7, 2023. A final assessment including results of the survey are expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement by 5 PM Today. The storm survey information will also be available on our website at https://www.weather.gov/mrx $$
  23. Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already.
  24. Yikes! Yes, I've been spreading the word to everyone. Regardless of the slight tornado risk, it looks like a legitimate threat of wind damage as these storms move through.
×
×
  • Create New...