Windspeed

I think we will have Beryl by 5AM AST, if not the 11PM. Even with easterly mid-level flow displacing/tilting the core convection slightly west of the LLC, TD2 has strong convection wrapping the vortex. It's not an excellent upper level environment through the core of the depression's column yet, but it appears to be improving with time. Certainly, there is not enough hindrance to prevent steady intensification, which clearly appears to be ongoing. It would not be a stretch to imagine TS force winds within the northern and ridge interacting side of the circulation.

TAFB AL, 02, 2024062818, , BEST, 0, 90N, 410W, 30, 1007, TD The first forecast package is coming out at 5PM AST.

But the ensembles don't have a pretty simulated IR map of a Category 4 to hype out!

Latest ASCAT pass, which is now a bit behind the last few hours of most recent satellite images in this animation.

95L's axis is only at 38°W longitude right now. The system has the bulk of the MDR remaining to continue organizing prior to land interaction in the Antilles. However, persistent pulsing CBs this evening do appear to be evolving a new MLC. This is evident in the overall cloud pattern and perhaps is allowing better alignment in closer proximity to the surface low within the wave axis, just to the canopy's NE, versus the old MLC that is down around 7-8N° latitude -- mostly devoid of convection. A new low-level vort max could form on Friday and I do think 95L has a great shot at TCG in the next 24 hours.

Nice convective burst going up where an MCV should be located. There may not be a closed LLC yet, but if this persists, it may not take long for one to develop. A depression and eventual tropical storm looks more likely than not at this point. We may have Beryl before the weekend.

Even weak TCs can and do intensify in the ECARIB, just generally not this early in the season. By August, persistent mid-to-upper level westerlies give away to longer durations of intermittent ULACs between TUTTs, therefore, naturally, there is a higher probability of MDR TCs tracking under a more favorable environment in the ECARIB as we reach ASO. But even well-organized systems generally get shredded in June and July. 2005 remains the craziest anomaly with conditions we usually do not see until late August fast-forwarded to late June, hence Dennis and Emily. But even more typical hyperactive seasons do not see an advanced favorable Caribbean until August. 2017, case in point, Harvey got shredded in the ECARIB before redeveloping in the WCARIB. Later that season, Maria was under a dominate ULAC in the ECARIB on Septermber 16th.

Both initial runs of HAFS have a hurricane in the ECARIB. THE HAFS-B is the stronger of the two, reaching hurricane intensity prior to the Lesser Antilles. HAFS-A has a more asymmetrical sheared structure through the Windwards.

I don't presently have access to compare, but yesterday's 12Z EURO had the ULL over the central GOM, which aided ventilation and built an ULAC right over the TC in the WCARIB. The GFS runs have all had the TUTT/ULL placed much further south and in closer proximity to the TC in WCARIB, which kept the TC under 20+ KTs of shear. Perhaps the new 00Z Euro came to a similar solution, hence a weaker system. Other than monitoring to see if we get a TC out of 95L, the evolution in modeling between the upper level features in the Caribbean is going to be the focus on any potential ceiling for intensity in the forecast. I do think 95L has an excellent shot of TCG and may become a strong TS, even a low-end hurricane, but I am very apprehensive of the major hurricane solutions that we may again see come and go over the next several days that would have any basis in reality. As has been repeated, the Caribbean in July is generally a graveyard for early MDR TCs for good reason. Climatology more often wins out this early in the season despite the above normal SSTs in place along potential track.

The last few GFS OP runs have strong westerly shear embedded across the western and central Caribbean during the range in which a hypothetical TC/95L would be running through the region. Which is why, though the GFS brings 95L to hurricane intensity through the Lesser Antilles, ramps down the TC significantly late in the forecast. The most recent ECMWF that has caught everyone's attention does something much different with the upper Caribbean environment. Shear is initially there, however, a TUTT closes into a potent ULL that retrogrades west at enough distance in front of hypothetical TC track to allow significant intensification from the central into the WCARIB prior to the Yucatan. These sims are very late in the forecast so it will change, but it is worth explaining the difference between the two mid-range solutions. Confidence must remain low on anything until we have a center to track and upper pattern within closer proximity to forecast.

Don't forget Dennis that same year, which formed on July 4th in the Lesser Antilles out of a well-organized MDR disturbance and reached Category 4 intensity on July 8th. It remains the earliest Major on record in the Caribbean, preceding Emily's formation on July 10th, though Emily holds the record for earliest Category 5. I still do not understand why Emily wasn't retired by the WMO. It devastated the central Rivera Maya.

From Ben Noll's site. Long range ECMWF-UKMET superblend indicative of La Niña and AMO+ pattern taking hold by ASO. If this unfolds, expect a dry late summer pattern into autumn. Caveat being any landfalling tropical systems moving inland over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley regions to break potential dry conditions. We're still in a period of transitional ENSO until that time, however. We should still experience periods of frontal boundary precip through June into mid-July, with hot and humid days intermingled by August. How hot and humid remains the question, though. Muggy August and September humidity can still lead to isolated evening thunderstorms, so here's to hoping we avoid any outright drought conditions.

The ECMWF-UKMET superblend for July-Nov from Ben Noll's site. That pattern/look is classic AMO+ combined with a La Niña. More to toss on the pile.

Toss the latest NMME into the evidence pile for a busy ASO.

Probably needs its own thread at this point. The MDT coverage area increased for Day 1/tomorrow now with larger hatched and 15% TOR probs.

It's straight stupid how anomolous the current 28°C isotherm is across the MDR. I always pay more attention to that as it's really the harbringer of major hurricane potential. As soon as the upper atmosphere begins to settle into more of a late Summer / July pattern combined with La Niña and weakening trades, I fully expect an early onset of CV ASO+ and a hyperactive season.

The Henagar radar signature has that violent nasty look to it. Hopefully, it cycles out soon.

Uh oh..

Fantastic thread about long-range MDR and an equatorial Atlantic Nino vs ENSO Nina event; furthermore, any implications on the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season.

Accuweather is such a joke. At least show some semblance of professionalism instead of fearmongering like some weenie posting on Reddit. Also, a "15% chance of 30 named storms or more" seems rather high considering it's only happened once on record. How does a meteorologist even determine that statistic scientifically? "Explosive" as a headline is just clickbaity BS.

The latest NMME now reaches into the heart of the Atlantic tropical season, and it's pretty eye-opening. Mighty strong positive AMO look. Obviously too early to start hyping as things are fluid and we still have a few months of long-range modeling precursors; however, if this pattern does evolve, it would certainly favor a low-shear MDR and long-track setup for Cape Verde hurricanes. SST patterns are not the end all, be all, of said pattern, but such a look could support north-central Atlantic and Bermuda ridging as well. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas4.html

Work in progress as the column moistens. It's like flipping on a switch. We've got moderate flakes falling here now just south of Bristol.

Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.

Isentropic lift is increasing, and radar is filling with heavy returns along the TN/AL border. That is all moving NE, and as such, we should see a heavy snowband from SW of Knoxville, the I-75 corridor, up into Holston Valley and the I-81 corridor for the remainder of the day. I haven't really seen any of the mesoscales balk yet. Pretty confident in this snowstorm for a large 4-10" swath up the eastern Tennessee watershed, minus the mixing issues that may persist in the Chattanooga area.