Windspeed

Oh wow... This is completing quickly!

It looks like it is merging into the intense eastern band that is essentially the eastern eyewall now. There isn't really a concentric moat feature. This looks like the merger style ERC I mentioned earlier, and now that we have a clear view from Barbados, it looks almost complete. Intensification may resume once finished. I'm curious if the eye ever fully fills in tonight on satellite with cloudcover since this looks like more of a merger.

A little more historical perspective on Beryl since record-keeping...

Irma did the same thing at an even much higher intensity. Also, I repeat this ad nauseam, but replacement cycles do not follow a script. Sometimes, the outer band will merge into the inner eye, closing the moat, and never allowing a full concentric eyewall to form. This can actually cause the inner eye to expand into the larger band without a complete breakdown of the eyewall. It's more obvious on radar, but on satellite, the eye never cloud fills, the cloudless region just gets larger. Irma did this twice. We've watched numerous typhoons do the same. It's still considered an ERC, but it's really more of a partial cycle and eyewall merger. Edit: I should note that a full EWRC or partial can still result in the two wind maxima joining and an increase in the overall windfield. But a full collapse of the eyewall is not always a guarantee.

11PM AST discussion with quite a focus on ongoing structural changes within Beryl and post-EWRC potential:

Wayyyy too early to try and nail down specifics for landfall points in the western GOM, north or south, for now. Modeling can change pretty drastically that far out. Really, everyone around the GOM should keep tabs on this.

To reiterate the previous points, a nice snippet from Dr. Levi Cowan on any structural changes and intensity fluctuations tonight and tomorrow:

We should also remember that the MPI in Beryl's location based solely on SSTs and OHC is much higher than what atmospheric conditions would support. Obviously, Beryl is now an intense Category 4 cyclone; however, it is still fighting moderate mid-to-upper easterly flow in position to the strong SPHS cell to its north. These conditions were not enough to prevent Beryl from rapidly intensifying, but such flow can interrupt intensification or at least prevent MPI from occurring. Brief ingestion of dry air due to this flow can erode the eyewall or perhaps allow a faster onset of EWRC if outer banding is already strong. Again, as has been repeated, structural evolution is hard to predict. EWRCs do also fail to complete or get interrupted by such an environment as we have found out with other swiftly tracking CV systems like Irma. The HAFS-B simulations that show an EWRC completing tonight are interesting but must be taken with a grain of salt. It's a chaotic process in a nutshell.

RE: EWRC ... Some discussion ongoing right now between Webb and Hazelton about any potential for this. Ahhh... @WxWatcher007 beat me to it. lol..

The eye has moved into an attenuated section of returns on the radar beam, blocked by a mountain to the SE of the tower on Barbados. However, there is definitely good banding outside the eyewall right now that might be consolidating into an outer ring.

The basin really does look and feel like late August. We will still have a seasonal lull here and there between MJO phases and temporary pattern shifts, but overall, confidence is high on a hyperactive season.

The biggest concern is for the northern eyewall raking across one of the Grenadines. There are a number of communities, port and resort towns located on these islands.

Recon just punched the weaker western and southern eyewall.

This is a way more positive development for the central altoplano volcanic region of Mexico as they are in dire need of the beneficial rains this TC will provide. Whether it attains weak TS status or remains a depression only matters for numbers and record-keeping. Folks along the Campeche coastline will hardly blink at 40-50mph winds. They need the rain, however, and this could be a drought buster. Hopefully, not too much at once to avoid flooding issues.

960 mb is a pretty high observed central pressure for a Category 4 hurricane. However, 1) Beryl has a very tight core of gradient-driven winds and 2) is embedded within higher overall background pressure regime influenced by the strong SPHS cell positioned directly to the north of the hurricane. Essentially, this means that if the central pressure continues to fall, Beryl could attain high-end Category 4 with only another 10 millibars of pressure drop and would hypothetically attain Category 5 windspeeds in the 940s hPa. I am not saying that it will, but background pressures and the core riding such a strong easterly low-level jet means that the northern eyewall could be very destructive if it encounters any of Windward islands.

There are some outter bands, but like you said, dry air to the north is keeping them from consolidating into an outter ring. Irma went days with partial ERC failures due to the same scenario. However, moist southerly flow could abate drier stable airmass and allow an outter ring to form by the time Beryl reaches the islands. So we can't rule out an EWRC starting prior to land interaction. We still have a full 24 hour window.

I've not anything to say that hasn't already been added. Pretty unbelievable events unfolding. Got to hope Beryl's eye threads the needle between islands to mitigate eyewall impacts as much as possible. Also, as is typical with intense TCs, hopefully, Beryl has maxed out early enough that an ERC would limit any further intensification. However, structural changes are difficult to predict. Never thought we'd see a Cat 4 in this part of the Atlantic in June, even if we are on July's doorstep. Usually, climatology wins out, and it still may win out by the time Beryl reaches the central Caribbean to allow windshear to counter MPI there, but we have several days to figure that out still.

Of note...

24 hours from classification to hurricane aint too shabby...

I would rather just pour through the landfall record each year to be sure, but perhaps my guess of 20-25 is probably too high. Cat 1 & 2s, sure, but major landfalls are obviously rarer and, more often than not, get retired. I'll look into it when I've more time.

You referenced the islands, and assuming NA plus central/Latin, that number has names that didn't strike the contiguous US.

The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it.

That's a question that would take several hours of research to answer. We started naming storms in the 1950s. Every few years, there is such a scenario. I'd guess there are two to four per decade. Perhaps 20-25 major unretired landfalls since naming began.

Shrimp mode...

A low-level reconnaissance flight will be investigating on Saturday.