Windspeed

Tricky forecast. A mere few hundred miles on stall position is the difference between a major hurricane or a weak TS. I was bullish. But look at the upper pattern and environment. It's very explosive. We just got lucky on proximity of the COC tracking into the Honduras coastline. It could still become a hurricane after all if it manages to not push fully inland on this stall.

Looks like the low-level circulation is going to push down into Honduras. That's a huge break for the Yucatán as far as a more intense hurricane developing. Still, a prolific heavy rain and flood problem for Honduras and Nicaragua.

I'm bullish on this TC. This could be an intense hit on Yucatán or Western Cuba if it doesn't stay in the Straits. As for Florida, though SSTs are a tick AN, they're still down around ~26°C west of the Peninsula. I imagine a strong TC will begin to lose some punch tracking NE across the Eastern GOM. Obviously, a further south track keeps the TC over 27-28°C SSTs, especially around the Keys. But that likely includes land interaction with Cuba, so hopefully still a weaker solution. As far as atmospheric setup when this future TC would hook into the westerlies, though there would be increasing shear values north of the Straits, the mid-level steering flow may align with upper SW flow, so the TC would likely still be in a favorable environment and ventilated / divergent pattern, even if SSTs are decreasing as the system moves NE. Still a long way to go to iron out specifics as far as a Florida hit or miss, but it's becoming increasingly probable that a hurricane forms and makes landfall early next week somewhere in the NW Caribbean and/or Eastern GOM. Given the environment, the initial landfall will most likely be an intense one. Not to prey on the Yucatán, but obviously Florida would benefit if a landfall occurs there first.

The operationals were pretty eye-opening last night. Even the ECMWF bombed a 930 mb major. I guess we'll just have to see how fast this system consolidates over the next 48 hours. There is a 24 hour variance between TCG between the two major operationals. The lesser deterministic GEFS still prefers land interaction slowing down any rapid intensification. Obviously, we don't even have an invest labeled yet, but it just goes to show how favorable the environment will become for the potential TC if it does form and stays over water.

The signal continues to ramp up on ensemble suites. Likewise, the 00z GFS rolling in has a hurricane inside three days. This is all likely due to the notable lower surface pressures south of Hispaniola, broad mid-level vorticity along the wave axis, and a robust convective envelope. If the hypothetical TC manages to avoid prolonged land interaction with NE Nicaragua and/or Honduras, this system could become quite strong given the favorable upper environment that should be in place. Any system hanging around the deep WCARIB should be well-ventilated.

Immediate surface is running a tick above 28°C. Enough to support a major hurricane.

I am really impressed by the visual appearance of Rafael. Did not anticipate this. Also, VHTs going up and wrapping the eye. Rafael may put in a show tonight prior to any increasing shear evolving tomorrow.

Intense typhoon Yinxing is about to make landfall in northeastern most Luzon, Phillipines.

There was a 100 kt gust reported west of Havana. I reckon that was a legit OBS. It is very possible that Rafael was a much stronger hurricane at landfall after the last recon data. There was an EWRC in progress that completed or merged prior to landfall. Either way, still surprised at the current intensity.

Holy guacamole, I didn't expect that NE eyewall to be so intense post-exit Cuba. Good grief. SFMR is too contaminated, but clearly, based on flight-level, Rafael is still a major hurricane.

Bifurcation is the word of the day...

Rafael is already taking on a somewhat lopsided structure on radar. I'm not sure that it isn't already experiencing some mid-level shear or if this is just a temporary appearance left over from land interaction with Cuba. However, it is interesting that the ECMWF wants to turn and drive Rafael due west and then WSW into the SW GOM. A bit of uncertainty on how this plays out. But I am confident if the GFS camp wins out, Rafael will still get sheared off.

Yes, I intended Grand Cayman. Brain was thinking Cayman and fingers typed Cancun. Been doing this a long time...lol.

Rafael's eye is becoming more symmetrical and appears closed now on Cancun radar. A more significant period of intensification may be occurring now that will last through landfall over Western Cuba. Would still like to see more symmetry with the CBs around the eyewall and a warming spike within the eye. But there is still plenty of time for Raffael to reach Category 2 intensity. Major hurricane intensity is definitely still possible prior to landfall.