J.Spin

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.29” L.E. This afternoon’s snow didn’t really accumulate much at the house, just a slushy coating of 0.1”. I think Burlington accumulated a bit more than that, but based on what I saw on our webcam we didn’t get the big aggregates that I saw there this afternoon. Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.3 Snow Density: 30.0% H2O Temperature: 36.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

As of about noon the precipitation is fully over to snow here in BTV – flakes are large, up to about 2 inches in diameter. I can also see that it’s also changed over to snow at our place in Waterbury via our webcam.

The precipitation has been mostly sleet as of late here in BTV, but more and more flakes seem to be mixing in now. I’m not sure if this will mark the official changeover, but precipitation is supposed to transition to snow at some point as this system continues.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.11” L.E. The precipitation at the house this morning was a combination of freezing rain and sleet. I cored the frozen material on the board, which would ideally include just the sleet, but there wasn’t really a way to separate it from the frozen rain. Lately, the precipitation has been trending more toward sleet, but I’m not sure if that’s just temporary. We are anticipated to change over to snow later in the storm. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet) New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.3 Snow Density: 80.0% H2O Temperature: 31.1 F Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Nice PF, I was actually out with my younger son for a ski tour on Saturday at BV, and I’ve been meaning to pass along a conditions update. What we found was really a quantum leap in snow quality compared to the previous weekend. Snow depths around 2,000’ at the Village were typically 5-7” over a substantial base, and where we topped out on our tour around 2,700’-2,800’ depths were roughly 12”. People had even been skiing down at Timberline at 1,500’ – it seemed a bit leaner on snow than at 2,000’ of course, but definitely workable. Last week’s three events with the big, dense snow L.E. one first followed by the two smaller events really set up a gradient in the pack for some nice turns. I’ve added a couple of shots from the tour below:

Since we just finished the first half of the month, I decided to take a look at a few numbers and get a perspective on it relative to last season. Season data as of November 15th: 2018 Number of accumulating storms: 9 Cumulative season snowfall: 14.3” Snow at the stake: 3.0” 2019 Number of accumulating storms: 5 Cumulative season snowfall: 13.9” Snow at the stake: 4.5” The difference in the number of storms between the seasons was actually due to the 4 storms we had in October last year, but overall snowfall and snowpack between the two seasons was really quite similar. I couldn’t include comparison of the winter snowpack start date because we won’t know the status of this season for a while. It’s typically hard to tell if these November valley snowpacks will actually mark the start of the actual winter snowpack, since even average November temperatures can be somewhat hostile to holding snow. But with every passing day and peeks at the forecast ahead, it seems like more and more of a possibility that this season could manage a similar start to what last season did. There’s probably close to an inch of liquid in the pack right now, and it certainly hasn’t taken on that glaciated thaw-freeze structure of a really robust pack, but it will still take some time to melt. If the current snowpack does hold, the start date would be November 8th, which is actually a couple days ahead of last season, but again quite close. What actually sparked my interest in looking at the data was a segment that TWC has been playing this morning with Dr. Postel – they note the snowfall that the northern tier of the U.S. has seen so far this season, and talk about the potential going forward for the next week or two. There is potential for some frozen precipitation from the coastal system that could affect the area over the next few days, and then they mention multiple systems behind that moving along in the relatively fast flow. There’s typically more confidence with these small clipper-style systems vs. large coastal storms, and we’ll have to see how it goes, but the potential for more snow in the next week or two is certainly being discussed at the national level.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.03” L.E. Yesterday evening brought an additional 0.8” of snow after the 6:00 P.M. clearing of the boards, and skies have mostly cleared out as of this morning, so that marks the end of the event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 11.1 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 34.2 F Sky: Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Thanks for the quick fix - I was able to update the snowfall for yesterday’s event and everything seems back to normal.

I definitely concur with Dendrite’s comment – having a snow “table” (i.e. elevated snowboard) is great for convenience in measuring, can be helpful in catching accumulations in marginal events, etc., but they are certainly more susceptible to the wind. If you set up an elevated system, just make sure you have it backed up with ground boards as well. Even in my sheltered location, I always have my elevated board backed up with at least one ground-based board to ensure I’ll be able to get a good reading no matter what.

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/Trace L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

I think something might be up from the tweaking – I was entering data for today’s event and after it posted to the table it came up with no name in the entry. I deleted it after noticing this issue, and upon further investigation I noticed that there was no place in the entry form to put the date. Also, when I’m logged in and go to my entries, it doesn’t show just my entries, it seems to show them all. I figured I’d pass it along if you’re doing some troubleshooting.

I hadn’t really been looking at much since the last storm, but I had a chance to take a peek at the weather models this morning, and it looks like we’ve got three potential snow events to consider over the next several days: 1) Today: upper level shortwave and associated warm front 2) Friday afternoon-Friday night: cold front and associated squalls 3) Monday-Tuesday: potential system off the coast At this point, the BTV NWS doesn’t really anticipate much of an effect up here with respect to the coastal system, but some of the models do suggest some fringe effects in the area, so we’ll have to let that get sorted out as we get closer in time.

Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.85” L.E. We’ve still got some flakes out there, and the models suggest that there’s potential for them to continue through tomorrow, so we’ll see if anything else accumulates to finish off this event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 17.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

You are supposed to report the greatest new depth attained during the collection interval, which in some cases may be limited by whether you’re there to be able to catch the measurement or not, but if a certain depth is attained and then it’s compressed or melts, you still report that greatest depth.

Event totals: 4.7” Snow/0.84” L.E. It looks like we’re moving toward the back side of this storm cycle now, and the snow density this morning has come down quite a bit. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.1 Snow Density: 9.0% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Light Snow (3 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.75” L.E. Aside from some interludes with larger flakes, the snowfall from this system has been impressively dense, and the bulk of the snowfall I’ve typically seen has been made up of small, granular flakes. I thought I heard a few ticks of sleet yesterday in the late evening, but there was nothing obvious in this morning’s core that I used for analysis. In any case, with the dense, granular flakes the storm has already brought 0.75” of liquid despite only 3.7” of snow accumulation. It’s actually snowing quite steadily out there this morning, but it’s not obvious at first glance due to the small size of the flakes. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.8 inches New Liquid: 0.41 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.4 Snow Density: 22.8% H2O Temperature: 20.8 F Sky: Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.34” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.30 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.7 Snow Density: 17.6% H2O Temperature: 25.0 F Sky: Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

I’ve got the updated BTV NWS maps for the storm below – indeed like PF mentioned in his thoughts, they’ve got some substantial areas in the northern Champlain Valley with the 12-18” shading.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.04” L.E. The first salvo of snow from this cold front began late yesterday evening, with a mix of rain and snow falling that transitioned to all snow as the temperatures fell back below freezing. This morning there was a dense refrozen accumulation on the boards with additional light snow/flurries falling. Some areas of snow from the previous storm did make it through to this event, so we’ll see what happens with this next run of snow in terms of how long this stretch of snow on the ground continues. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 30.6 F Sky: Light Snow/Flurries Snow at the stake: Trace

I just figured it was because of the potential mixed precipitation, and indeed if you work your way through the point forecasts moving eastward in the county from here, the projected accumulations do drop off a bit. With county-sized chunks of real estate, I’m sure it’s tough for the BTV NWS folks to decide where to draw the line and categorize each county. For extreme cases like eastern/western Chittenden, Addison, etc. they have subdivided the counties when needed as I recall.

We were in the garage doing some winter prep on the vehicles and I got a text message that we were under a Winter Weather Advisory for the upcoming storm. On the updated advisories map I can see they’ve got a mixture of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings for the area. The updated projected accumulations map has just a touch of that 12-18” shading near some of the peaks, with our area at the 8-12” level. The point forecast here suggests accumulations through Tuesday of 6 to 12 inches, with the potential for some mixed precipitation, which seems generally in line with the map.

I see that the BTV NWS now has the following headline for the upcoming event on their homepage, and linked from that is an updated snow map with areas of 12-18” projected accumulation shading for some of the higher elevations. Winter Storm Watch in Effect Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Afternoon for the Adirondacks in New York and portions of northern Vermont A period of moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches will be possible. A band of heavy snow could develop Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Travel could be very difficult, especially within the band of heavy snow.

A few shots from yesterday’s ski tour:

I visited Bolton yesterday to get in a ski tour and check out the new snow, so I’ll pass along some beta on the snow depths and general conditions. With the fairly fluffy nature of the snow and based on what I’m seeing at the house, I’m sure there had been some settling since it fell, but here’s the snow depth/elevation profile from the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road up to the local summit areas: 340’: 1-2” 1,000’: 2-3” 1,500’: 3-4” 2,000’: 4-6” 2,500’: 6-7” 3,000’: 7-9” I was up there around midday, when temperatures were just edging a bit above freezing at our house down in the valley, but above 1,500’, and certainly above 2,000’, temperatures never got above freezing so the snow was all winter consistency. In terms of the skiing, it was undoubtedly early season, and rock skis would be your best bet if you’re going on anything with substantial pitch. I actually found the skiing better on the lower half of the mountain because there was a bit of a base there – I think more of the snow down in those elevations was melting on contact with the ground to create that dense layer. Up higher, the consistency of the snow was more straight fluff from top to bottom. As is often the case, most water bars had reasonable crossings at least at one point, but a few were dicey and took some extra navigation. There’s still running water in plenty of spots, and ponding in some flat areas. On my descent it was obvious that my skis got in contact with at least traces of that moisture, because about halfway down I had to pull out a credit card and spend probably 10 minutes doing a scrape down on the ski bases to really get things back in shape for gliding. That effort was worth it though, because for the bottom half of my run I was on Lower Turnpike, and that offered what was unquestionably the best skiing of the tour. The combination of that bit of dense snow that accumulated as some base down in those elevations, plus some skier traffic packing down areas of the new snow as well, clearly created the best subsurfaces I encountered. On top of that you’ve got the fact that Lower Turnpike is essentially all grassy terrain, and it has a pitch that isn’t really overbearing for the amount of snowpack we’ve got, and it comes together for real winning combination. Even with some skier traffic, there was still plenty of powder to play around in throughout the trail, so that was a great way to finish off my run. For anyone heading up, you may still want to hit the summit areas to check things out and get the exercise from a more substantial tour, but if you’re just looking to get out from some quality turns, Lower Turnpike is probably going to get you the most bang for your buck. It’s one of the designated ascent routes anyway, so there’s a nice skin track and it’s an efficient way to in some nice turns on the new snow. I’ve got a few images from yesterday, so I’ll try to pass some along when I get a chance to get them off my camera.