J.Spin

As of about noon the precipitation is fully over to snow here in BTV – flakes are large, up to about 2 inches in diameter. I can also see that it’s also changed over to snow at our place in Waterbury via our webcam.

The precipitation has been mostly sleet as of late here in BTV, but more and more flakes seem to be mixing in now. I’m not sure if this will mark the official changeover, but precipitation is supposed to transition to snow at some point as this system continues.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.11” L.E. The precipitation at the house this morning was a combination of freezing rain and sleet. I cored the frozen material on the board, which would ideally include just the sleet, but there wasn’t really a way to separate it from the frozen rain. Lately, the precipitation has been trending more toward sleet, but I’m not sure if that’s just temporary. We are anticipated to change over to snow later in the storm. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet) New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.3 Snow Density: 80.0% H2O Temperature: 31.1 F Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

I swear part of the issue is that there was this sort of campaign a while back that was pushing November as this big winter month or something along those lines. It seemed like more of a “wishcast” disinformation campaign than anything, but I think some weenies got indoctrinated and the forums are still dealing with the backlash today. I don’t remember all the details, but it was big on some of these weather boards at one point.

I’m glad Will pointed that out with ORH data; three 24”+ storms in one season has really got to be incredibly difficult to achieve for most valley locations not in a LES hotspot. Even at our site with the bonus of upslope on the back side of many storm cycles, we haven’t come close to that. I checked my data, and the situation here is similar to yours – three storms at 18”+ has thus far been the most I’ve seen. Even in a feast or famine situation with that setup you’re talking about a snowfall floor on the season at 72”, but more likely it would have to be part of a 100”+ season. We have achieved a sort of related scenario at our site with six 12”+ storms in 2010-2011. , but that’s likely much easier to achieve and more in line with the climate up here.

Nice PF, I was actually out with my younger son for a ski tour on Saturday at BV, and I’ve been meaning to pass along a conditions update. What we found was really a quantum leap in snow quality compared to the previous weekend. Snow depths around 2,000’ at the Village were typically 5-7” over a substantial base, and where we topped out on our tour around 2,700’-2,800’ depths were roughly 12”. People had even been skiing down at Timberline at 1,500’ – it seemed a bit leaner on snow than at 2,000’ of course, but definitely workable. Last week’s three events with the big, dense snow L.E. one first followed by the two smaller events really set up a gradient in the pack for some nice turns. I’ve added a couple of shots from the tour below:

Since we just finished the first half of the month, I decided to take a look at a few numbers and get a perspective on it relative to last season. Season data as of November 15th: 2018 Number of accumulating storms: 9 Cumulative season snowfall: 14.3” Snow at the stake: 3.0” 2019 Number of accumulating storms: 5 Cumulative season snowfall: 13.9” Snow at the stake: 4.5” The difference in the number of storms between the seasons was actually due to the 4 storms we had in October last year, but overall snowfall and snowpack between the two seasons was really quite similar. I couldn’t include comparison of the winter snowpack start date because we won’t know the status of this season for a while. It’s typically hard to tell if these November valley snowpacks will actually mark the start of the actual winter snowpack, since even average November temperatures can be somewhat hostile to holding snow. But with every passing day and peeks at the forecast ahead, it seems like more and more of a possibility that this season could manage a similar start to what last season did. There’s probably close to an inch of liquid in the pack right now, and it certainly hasn’t taken on that glaciated thaw-freeze structure of a really robust pack, but it will still take some time to melt. If the current snowpack does hold, the start date would be November 8th, which is actually a couple days ahead of last season, but again quite close. What actually sparked my interest in looking at the data was a segment that TWC has been playing this morning with Dr. Postel – they note the snowfall that the northern tier of the U.S. has seen so far this season, and talk about the potential going forward for the next week or two. There is potential for some frozen precipitation from the coastal system that could affect the area over the next few days, and then they mention multiple systems behind that moving along in the relatively fast flow. There’s typically more confidence with these small clipper-style systems vs. large coastal storms, and we’ll have to see how it goes, but the potential for more snow in the next week or two is certainly being discussed at the national level.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.03” L.E. Yesterday evening brought an additional 0.8” of snow after the 6:00 P.M. clearing of the boards, and skies have mostly cleared out as of this morning, so that marks the end of the event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 11.1 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 34.2 F Sky: Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Thanks for the quick fix - I was able to update the snowfall for yesterday’s event and everything seems back to normal.

I definitely concur with Dendrite’s comment – having a snow “table” (i.e. elevated snowboard) is great for convenience in measuring, can be helpful in catching accumulations in marginal events, etc., but they are certainly more susceptible to the wind. If you set up an elevated system, just make sure you have it backed up with ground boards as well. Even in my sheltered location, I always have my elevated board backed up with at least one ground-based board to ensure I’ll be able to get a good reading no matter what.

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/Trace L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

I think something might be up from the tweaking – I was entering data for today’s event and after it posted to the table it came up with no name in the entry. I deleted it after noticing this issue, and upon further investigation I noticed that there was no place in the entry form to put the date. Also, when I’m logged in and go to my entries, it doesn’t show just my entries, it seems to show them all. I figured I’d pass it along if you’re doing some troubleshooting.

I hadn’t really been looking at much since the last storm, but I had a chance to take a peek at the weather models this morning, and it looks like we’ve got three potential snow events to consider over the next several days: 1) Today: upper level shortwave and associated warm front 2) Friday afternoon-Friday night: cold front and associated squalls 3) Monday-Tuesday: potential system off the coast At this point, the BTV NWS doesn’t really anticipate much of an effect up here with respect to the coastal system, but some of the models do suggest some fringe effects in the area, so we’ll have to let that get sorted out as we get closer in time.

Starting this season, I don’t even have to melt the snow down to quantify the liquid. I’d been wanting to skip the melting and simply do it by density for a while, and just hadn’t gotten around to looking for an appropriate scale or balance. This off season I finally started looking, and they’ve got 0.01 g resolution scales all over the place now for ~$10 or so. I’ve got one of those, and it’s great. Depending on whether it’s dry or wet snow, I just tare my corer or another vessel, and bam, there’s your liquid. It’s far more accurate and precise than trying to measuring volumes down to 0.01 mL, it’s much faster than dealing with melting the snow down, and there’s the added benefit of not losing any sample in container transfers.

Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.85” L.E. We’ve still got some flakes out there, and the models suggest that there’s potential for them to continue through tomorrow, so we’ll see if anything else accumulates to finish off this event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 17.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

You are supposed to report the greatest new depth attained during the collection interval, which in some cases may be limited by whether you’re there to be able to catch the measurement or not, but if a certain depth is attained and then it’s compressed or melts, you still report that greatest depth.

Event totals: 4.7” Snow/0.84” L.E. It looks like we’re moving toward the back side of this storm cycle now, and the snow density this morning has come down quite a bit. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.1 Snow Density: 9.0% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Light Snow (3 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.75” L.E. Aside from some interludes with larger flakes, the snowfall from this system has been impressively dense, and the bulk of the snowfall I’ve typically seen has been made up of small, granular flakes. I thought I heard a few ticks of sleet yesterday in the late evening, but there was nothing obvious in this morning’s core that I used for analysis. In any case, with the dense, granular flakes the storm has already brought 0.75” of liquid despite only 3.7” of snow accumulation. It’s actually snowing quite steadily out there this morning, but it’s not obvious at first glance due to the small size of the flakes. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.8 inches New Liquid: 0.41 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.4 Snow Density: 22.8% H2O Temperature: 20.8 F Sky: Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.34” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.30 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.7 Snow Density: 17.6% H2O Temperature: 25.0 F Sky: Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Wow, I’ve been amazed at the consensus on this, and fairly astonished that nobody seems to appreciate how fantastic it is to have the heated walkways. I’d install a system like that at my place in a second if it was practical/economical. We’re talking about areas that need to be cleared of snow anyway, so why in the world would people want it to fall there and then be required to clear it manually? Unless you chemically treat (salt) surfaces like that, they’re never really cleared of the remnants of the shoveling process; you end up with various patches of snow and ice all over the place depending on areas of sun and shade, and it looks like crap. And of course there’s the safety element as well. PF knows exactly how it looks in the Spruce Peak Village, and I can’t believe the aesthetic isn’t appreciated. You have picturesque deep snow exactly where it belongs, without the extra lumpy shoveled snowbanks filled with gray snow, gravel, and salt, and then the snow literally stops right where it’s supposed to and you’ve got a pristine walkway to walk on. It’s far more picturesque, safer, and friendlier to the surrounding grass and other vegetation than the alternative with salting.

I’ve got the updated BTV NWS maps for the storm below – indeed like PF mentioned in his thoughts, they’ve got some substantial areas in the northern Champlain Valley with the 12-18” shading.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.04” L.E. The first salvo of snow from this cold front began late yesterday evening, with a mix of rain and snow falling that transitioned to all snow as the temperatures fell back below freezing. This morning there was a dense refrozen accumulation on the boards with additional light snow/flurries falling. Some areas of snow from the previous storm did make it through to this event, so we’ll see what happens with this next run of snow in terms of how long this stretch of snow on the ground continues. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 30.6 F Sky: Light Snow/Flurries Snow at the stake: Trace

I just figured it was because of the potential mixed precipitation, and indeed if you work your way through the point forecasts moving eastward in the county from here, the projected accumulations do drop off a bit. With county-sized chunks of real estate, I’m sure it’s tough for the BTV NWS folks to decide where to draw the line and categorize each county. For extreme cases like eastern/western Chittenden, Addison, etc. they have subdivided the counties when needed as I recall.

We were in the garage doing some winter prep on the vehicles and I got a text message that we were under a Winter Weather Advisory for the upcoming storm. On the updated advisories map I can see they’ve got a mixture of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings for the area. The updated projected accumulations map has just a touch of that 12-18” shading near some of the peaks, with our area at the 8-12” level. The point forecast here suggests accumulations through Tuesday of 6 to 12 inches, with the potential for some mixed precipitation, which seems generally in line with the map.