J.Spin

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.21” L.E. Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.0 Snow Density: 6.3% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

I’m surprised nobody brought up borderwx in terms of northerly location; his latitude has got to be close to 45° North. There’s also someone in the Plattsburg area now who indicated he was pretty far north, and don’t we have someone in St. Albans as well? We’re at 44.36° North here in Waterbury.

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.16” L.E. Details from the 3:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.9 Snow Density: 7.8% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.09” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 30.0 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.8 Snow Density: 7.3% H2O Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 7 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 5.2” Snow/0.85” L.E. We had light snow/flurries much of the day today, but temperatures also crept above freezing here in the valley, so accumulation was slow. The above totals should be the final numbers for Winter Storm Gage, and anything we get tonight I’ll roll into the next system that is currently moving in from the west. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 31.6 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.84” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 35.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 4.6” Snow/0.82” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 4.3” Snow/0.81” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7 Snow Density: 8.6% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Indeed, we’ve had ¾” of liquid put down into the snowpack so far here in the valley, so that’s a solid resurfacing above the old base. Apropos on that note, right in line with the forecast it’s just switched back over to snow down here at 500’ in the valley, with huge flakes pouring down. Hopefully the mountains can catch a solid topping over all the dense stuff we’ve been getting.

Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.75” L.E. There was another period of light freezing rain around here in the midafternoon period, and then the precipitation changed back to sleet. More recently we’re starting to get some snow in the mix as well, and the forecast indicates that precipitation is supposed to change fully back over to snow this evening. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.0 Snow Density: 25.0% H2O Temperature: 28.9 F Sky: Light Snow/Sleet Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

As long as it’s been treated I don’t think it should be too bad in this area – precipitation isn’t all that heavy right now (some sleet with occasional flakes) and temperatures aren’t overly cold.

Event totals: 3.2” Snow/0.65” L.E. The precipitation has been mostly sleet this morning, although there was some glaze in there as well that indicates we had some freezing rain overnight. More recently, snow has been mixing back into the precipitation as well. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.26 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.7 Snow Density: 37.1% H2O Temperature: 30.4 F Sky: Sleet/Snow (5 to 15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.30” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.16 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.1 Snow Density: 12.3% H2O Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Light snow grains/sleet Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.14” L.E. The precipitation here has generally been snow, but I did see some more granular flakes/sleet out there at one point that probably bumped up the density of the accumulation a bit. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.14 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.6 Snow Density: 11.7% H2O Temperature: 30.0 F Sky: Snow (2 to 15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

It looks like snow started up here in Waterbury around 8:45 P.M.

I’ve got the updated advisory and projected accumulation maps from the BTV NWS below – they indicated that the latest guidance has been a bit warmer, with more mixed precipitation and slightly less snow, so it looks like they adjusted the maps accordingly.

Below are the latest maps for upcoming Winter Storm Gage from the BTV NWS. For projected accumulations through midday Tuesday, shading is generally in the 6-8” range for snow in valleys in this area, with some 8-12” shading for the parts of the spine of the Greens. The point forecast here suggests something in the 5-11” range through Tuesday, although the models also suggest another couple of days of snow with upslope on the back side of the storm cycle continuing into Thursday: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 452 AM EST Sunday...We remain on the backside of an upper low slowly progressing eastwards on Wednesday. There are still a few vort maxes within that will advect across the North Country during the day. Coupled with a cooler air mass and southwest flow, we should see favorable conditions for snow showers during the day. This will be most true along the Greens and Adirondacks, where orographic enhancement will aid development. The slopes will benefit for the New Year.

Here’s this afternoon’s projected accumulations map from the BTV NWS through 7:00 P.M. Tuesday:

I just got a text alert that we’re under a Winter Storm Watch in association with this next system, which has been named Winter Storm Gage.

I saw that in the discussion and was going to post about it as well. The models have been showing some potentially decent backside snows for quite a while, even back when the storm looked like it was going to be substantially warmer. Ideally it would be nice to get some dense snow topped off by higher ratio powder to cover the old base and set up the powder skiing, but we’ll have to see how it plays out. The BTV NWS mentioning it is a good sign though.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.04” L.E. We picked up a couple tenths of snow on the front end of this system, but since then the precipitation has generally been liquid and very light. We’re still under a Winter Weather Advisory in the area until 11:00 A.M. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 34.7 F Sky: Cloudy/Mist/Sprinkles Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

These next couple of systems (a smaller one on Friday, and then a larger one starting Sunday) have generally looked like mixed precipitation, but the back side of the second one seems to consistently show snow potential in the models. It’s interesting that some models like the ECMWF and CMC show more wintry potential in that second system, but the BTV NWS doesn’t even mention anything about that in their discussion, so I wouldn’t lend it much credence at this point. For now, I’d certainly watch that Monday/Tuesday period for potential ski options depending on how the back side of the storm cycle plays out.

LOL, I was actually going to respond to the comment because that climate literally exists, and we have the data for it. The annual snow totals would be quite variable depending on elevation and mountain aspect, but you’d probably be looking at ~100” at a minimum. That is unless you’re thinking warning-level snows every few days. Annual snowfall would need to be well into the hundreds of inches to pull that off, and most of the places I can think of with big snow totals like that don’t typically have their storms quite that frequently. My best guess at a place that might be able to do it consistently would be the mountains of Hokkaido, but the more coastal ranges of British Columbia might be able to do it in some years with the right pattern. My numbers from the past 13 seasons indicate that we average 40 accumulating storms during that Dec 1st to Apr 1st period, which breaks down to a storm bringing some sort of accumulation almost exactly every 3 days on average. Mean snowfall during that stretch is 135.5”, so that equates to an average of 3.4” of snow per storm. Actually, Mt. Mansfield at elevation could be close to averaging a warning-level snow about every 3 days during that period, because the snowfall there is typically just about double what I record. Of course it doesn’t actually work out with a nice distribution of a medium-sized storm every three days because you get periods where the storms are really popping up, lulls, small storms, large storms, etc. Still, such a climate is really not that far-fetched. We’ve actually been talking about this a bit in the NNE thread because No Poles was wondering about the possibility of a quiet week on the snowfall front. A little bit of potential popped up on the models for tonight though, sort of in line with the snowfall frequency discussion.

Well, it was likely that things would pop up at some point, and it looks like tonight is the first one of those. It’s obviously tenuous because it’s not even indicated on every model, but it’s there on the CMC, ICON, ECMWF, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, WRF-NMM, RGEM, etc. The thoughts as of this afternoon from the BTV NWS indicate that it’s fairly minimal and likely at elevation, but at least a bit of accumulation is a possibility here in the northern mountains: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EST Monday...Mainly a persistence forecast over the next 42 hours with new NBM/blended data incorporated into existing datasets. A cold front remains on track to cross the area through the early to mid evening hours with winds shifting from south/southwesterly to northwesterly in the 6 to 10 pm time frame. Little sensible weather is expected along the boundary other than a trend toward cloudier conditions and some spotty sprinkles/flurries across elevated northern terrain where spot accumulations of a dusting to perhaps a half inch will be possible above 1500 feet. It looks like we might be moving beyond this bit of a snowfall lull though, with the models suggesting a potential system for Thursday/Friday and then another on Sunday.