J.Spin

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01” L.E. We’ve had continued very light snow from this latest shortwave, with a bit more falling as I left the house this morning. We’ll see if there’s anything to add when I check later today. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. We picked up a final tenth of an inch of accumulation overnight from the shortwave that had been affecting the area, but this evening’s snow is being considered part of this next shortwave currently affecting the area as discussed by the BTV NWS. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Here at our site I recorded 22.5” from that storm cycle, which was about a third of the month’s snowfall. It looks like the other relatively large storm from the month was Winter Storm Harper with 15.2” of snow. I have the summary table for January 2019 at our site below:

My best estimate for annual snowfall here at our site is ~160”. You can see from the table below that the mean for this site during our 13-year period of record thus far is 155.9”, but that’s likely a bit low due to the very aberrant 2015-2016 season. The table shows how that season sticks out like a sore thumb compared to all the others. Indeed, the statistical analysis reveals that season is an incredible 2.24 S.D. below the mean, which is essentially a 1 in 100-year event. It’s a real value that should be included in the data of course, it’s just that the data set isn’t quite large enough to absorb a number like that without taking a substantial hit (that is probably overdone). When that season was first added to the data set, it was such a dramatic difference from all the other seasons that it dropped the snowfall mean down into the 140s, but it’s slowly been creeping back up with help from the past three solid seasons to where it is now. Without that outlier season the average snowfall comes in at 162.9”. That may be a bit high of course, but ~160” seems about where I’d expect it to end up as the 2015-2016 number gets appropriately diluted.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E. Very light snow/flurries today brought another tenth of an inch of snow that contained less that 0.01” of liquid. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 26.2 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

January Totals Accumulating Storms: 10 Snowfall: 34.4” Liquid Equivalent: 3.93” January snowfall this season was surprisingly similar to what we picked in December – probably a bit behind the long term average, but certainly decent and well within a standard deviation of the mean. I think I heard PF mention that January temperatures were well above average around here, so if we can get comfortable temperatures like that and still manage at least a reasonably snowy result, that’s a nice way to run a month vs. getting stuck in the dry, arctic cold. Last January dropped twice as much snow as this one though, so it’s on a whole different level, but I’d say this was a nice wintry month. Checking on season progress, we’re currently at 82.4” of snowfall, which is only about an inch behind average pace. We’ve been maintaining a fairly steady and average snowfall routine for over a month now, and that’s been the trend as we hit roughly the midway point in the snowfall season.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. Light snow and flurries started up at some point overnight with this latest shortwave trough affecting the area. As of now, the BTV NWS discussion suggests that potential snow tomorrow would be from a stronger trough with better surface reflection and moisture content, so I’ll try to parse any accumulations out accordingly. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Substantial distances of east-west travel in NNE definitely take a while with no interstate and all those mountain ranges and sub-ranges to get around. A little bit of travel inconvenience is part of the charm though, and a small price to pay for all the awesome geography.

LOL PF, you are brave to even post that sort of stuff in that storm thread. But yeah, it looks like our next potential snow events are that Friday/Saturday period, and then on Monday. They’re not super strong signals at this point on all models, but worth watching because those refreshers can really bump up the surface conditions that extra notch for an outing.

As I did back on Saturday, I cored the snowpack at our site this morning as part of my CoCoRaHS observations to see how the snowpack changed after this most recent storm cycle. With the numbers now in, we can see that the SWE in the pack went from 1.69” before the system to 2.08” now. Snowpack depth didn’t really increase, but the SWE certainly did. Down here we picked roughly ¾” of liquid from the storm, and not all of it went into bolstering the pack since our valley temperatures were a bit marginal, but the mountains likely picked up more than an inch of liquid, and it all should have gone into enhancing the snowpack. I see that the latest report from the Mt. Mansfield Stake indicates that it’s at 48”, which is still a bit below average, but that’s a very solid addition. I think it was at about 40” before this storm? Even if that’s not a huge gain in depth, we know from being out there on the mountain and skiing it over the past few days that it was a hefty addition to the pack and a solid resurfacing up high.

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.73” L.E. There are actually a few flurries still around this morning, but this should be the last set of observations for this storm, and the above totals should be the final numbers of for the event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 19.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

I was curious about how this storm has been playing out at the resorts up and down the spine, so I did the usual assembling of the north to south snow reports for an idea of the storm totals. It seems like the biggest drop off was south of Killington/Pico. The most notable buck in the trend was Bromley reporting 7” for their 72-hour total, when their very immediate neighbors Stratton and Magic are both reporting 1”: Jay Peak: 12” Smuggler’s Notch: 11” Stowe: 13” Bolton Valley: 12” Mad River Glen: 9” Sugarbush: 9” Pico: 7” Killington: 7” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 7” Magic Mountain: 1” Stratton: 1” Mount Snow: 1” It’s still snowing here at the house under the current northwest flow, so it’s possible that the resorts are picking up a bit more as well:

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.73” L.E. Well this is one of those storms that PF might associate with the “Energizer Bunny” term, due to the way it keeps going and going. This is the fourth day of observations for this event at our site, and indeed we’ll probably have at least one more round since it’s snowing right now. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.72” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5 Snow Density: 13.3% H2O Temperature: 30.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.60” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5 Snow Density: 13.3% H2O Temperature: 33.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

That’s really interesting with respect to the localization. We really didn’t know much about the upslope snows in the Whites on the forum here until Alex joined, and we’re certainly learning more about it with Diane in the area as well. We’ll have to get PF into the conversation to get his thoughts on the localization issue, but it does sound a bit more restricted over there in the Whites. As “localized” as we talk about it over here in the Greens, it’s always felt to me that it’s there pretty much up and down the entire spine, even down into SNE. It just becomes less and less intense and frequent as one heads south from the Jay Peak area at the international border. We get it to a certain distance east and west of the spine, and that depends on the Froude Numbers associated with each event, but it seems like it’s over the entire length.

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.49” L.E. We’ve been having on and off rounds of light snow on the back side of this system, with another batch of flakes starting up as I was leaving the house this morning. Details from the past couple rounds of observations are below, and the snow density has definitely come down some as we head into this part of the storm. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 33.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Yeah, that wet pack snow is very PNW-like. I’ve experienced it most intensely at Whistler Blackcomb with their relatively low base elevation. It was kind of fun today though using the end of runs to work with the boys and discuss technique. At the mountain today we typically stayed out of steep off piste areas below -2,500’ because they need just a bit more base to really be in prime form, but above that it was fantastic as you noted. We generally found 18 inches of powder up high before we’d encounter any crusty layers. Even if the 40” or so at the stake is below average, that's still a lot of snow – we could routinely stick our poles into the snowpack right up to the handle. A few shots from today’s outing:

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.42” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.3 Snow Density: 30.0% H2O Temperature: 33.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches We were out much of the day at the mountain, but it looks like the snowfall was fairly minimal here at the house. The flow was from the south much of the day, but I see that it’s turned more to the west now and the snowfall has really picked up with much larger flakes.

We’re on the gondola right now heading up, and the conditions at elevation are simply fantastic. Yeah it might have been only a few inches of new, but it’s on top of a LOT of great snow below it. Unsettling snow of piste is actually quite deep where it hasn’t been touched. The line where you hit that PNW-style wet pack on the groomed surfaces is right around the 2,000’ mark on this side of Mansfield based on what we experienced on our last run.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.39” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: Trace New Liquid: 0.02 Temperature: 33.4 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Well, the projected snowfall numbers in the Mansfield point forecast through Monday night are certainly nothing to scoff at – even the low end of those accumulations would be a solid addition: Overnight Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 27. Windy, with a south wind 27 to 32 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of snow showers after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow showers. Low around 21. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Snow showers. High near 26. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a northwest wind 22 to 31 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.37” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.8 Snow Density: 56.7% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Snow (2 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches Since it changed over from sleet in the afternoon, the precipitation has been all snow this evening. At times the flakes have been small, but the heavier echoes bring big aggregates. Accumulations have been very waterlogged and sloppy with temperatures around the freezing mark.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7 Snow Density: 15.0% H2O Temperature: 34.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches As I mentioned in my previous post, the precipitation started as sleet here back around 3:00 P.M. At that point the temperature was up around 37 F, and it’s been falling through the evening. Snow began mixing in at some point, and then that became the predominant precipitation type. Temperatures are still above freezing thought, so accumulation has been fairly slow.

I was just outside and we’ve got some sleet falling here at the house.