J.Spin

The BTV NWS has a headline going for the event on their home page, and I’ve pasted their most recent projected accumulations map below. The shading in the current iteration of the map suggests a general 8-12” along the spine for the Northern Greens, and it looks like it’s just getting into that 12-18” shading up near Jay Peak.

It’s definitely becoming potent in some of the modeling, and the BTV NWS is starting to talk about it in their discussions: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1030 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...setup is looking increasingly favorable for some snow accumulations in higher terrain as upper- level low stall and pivots over the forecast area. Storm total snow through Friday will be in the 2 to 5 inch range for much of the Northeast Kingdom and portions of the northern Adirondacks. Higher peaks (generally 1500 ft and above) of the NEK and northern Greens have the potential for 6+ inches. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for portions of northern Vermont, but given that the heavier accumulations will be restricted to 1500 ft and above, have elected to hold off any headlines at this point.

When I checked yesterday at observations time, the last of the snow had disappeared in the yard, so April 6th marked the final day of the seasonal snowpack. The numbers here indicate that mean melt out is April 15th, ± 11 days, so this year was early, but within 1 S.D. of the mean. Duration of the continuous snowpack this season ended up being 151 days, which was longer than average because of the early start, but also within 1 S.D. of the mean. Despite being behind average snowfall pace right now by over 20 inches, this season wound up being quite respectable in that snowpack duration category, ranking in 4th place out of the 14 seasons in my records.

March Totals Accumulating Storms: 7 Snowfall: 12.9” Liquid Equivalent: 3.34” March mean and median snowfall here at our site are both right around 30 inches, so this March was definitely somewhat lean in that department, running 0.86 S.D. below average. This March certainly won’t go down as a “middle of the pack” type of month, but it’s definitely not in with the “bottom of the barrel” type seasons like ‘09-‘10 (2.1”) and ’15-‘16 (5.7”) either. It even edged out ‘08-‘09 (12.6”), although it certainly falls in that group with seasons like ’11-‘12 (14.2”) and ’14-‘15 (17.2”). Total liquid for the month was a bit below the mean (3.67”), but pretty typical overall. The total number of accumulating snowstorms was actually right about the average (~7.5). Now that we’re on to April, the yard snowpack is dwindling and I suspect the last vestiges will be gone within a few days. It will likely disappear earlier than average (4/15), but it already looks like it’s going to persist longer than some of the very early seasons like ‘09-‘10 (4/3). This season had a very early snowpack start though (11/8), so the duration of the continuous winter snowpack here in the yard is already at 148 days and beyond the average duration.

Nice, glad to hear you got out into the backcountry. I was actually thinking of touring on the Bolton BC Network when we were out the other day – with so many people off from work, the resort trails are getting more traffic than usual. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still 60 inches, and the forecast shows various chances for snow in the higher elevations over the next week. Even if none of the snows are very substantial, there don’t seem to be any overly warm temperatures, so the snowpack at elevation shouldn’t be going anywhere. I’m hoping we get some more rounds of spring storms with accumulations like this last one – it’s kind of strange having the resorts closed here in March, but it’s presenting some unique opportunities. The time of year is always so great with the deep snowpack and longer days, and the warm spring skiing is certainly fun, but the spring powder days have such a cool vibe – you get a piece of winter sort of transplanted into spring, atop what is typically the deepest base of the season!

With the fresh powder from Winter Storm Quincy, my younger son and I headed out for a ski tour at Bolton Valley yesterday, so I can pass along some snow updates and images. Depth checks of the new snow at 1,500’, 2,000’, and even up above 3,000’ were all essentially the same in the 7 to 8” range. That’s essentially the same as what we picked up at the house, so overall, there really didn’t seem to be much change in accumulation around here from 500’ on up to above 3,000’. Temperatures stayed well below freezing even at 2,000’, and probably even down to 1,500’, so the turns were very nice. The powder was of medium to perhaps slightly higher density, the snow had a nice surfy consistency, with enough buoyancy for bottomless turns on even steep pitches in the black diamond range. You could certainly hit bottom on the very steepest pitches, but we focused on medium-angle terrain and it was bottomless all the way. With many people not going to work right now as the state strives to minimize the spread of COVID-19, and a fresh dump of powder on the slopes, I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised at how many people were out for turns. The number of people touring seemed notable though – between Timberline and the Village, there were at least several dozen cars out there. Despite the number of people up at the resort, it was clear that even resort ski touring is still a great activity for social distancing. As is typically the case, we actually saw only a few people while we were out on the hill, and you still never had to go within 50 feet of anyone if you didn’t want to. A few shots from the tour:

Event totals: 8.7” Snow/0.70” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Event totals: 8.1” Snow/0.65” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 5.8 inches New Liquid: 0.44 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.2 Snow Density: 7.6% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

I got a text alert around 7:30 P.M. that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Warning here in Washington Country, no doubt due to the continued heavy snowfall. The BTV NWS has updated their maps as well, which I’ve included below. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 758 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 748 PM EDT Monday...Well its been an extremely busy evening here at the office, as we expanded the advisories north to the international border and placed central/southern cwa into winter storm warnings. Expecting storm total of 2 to 6 inches advisory and 4 to 8 inches in warnings, with many reports of 6 inches or so from Newcomb to Port Henry to Orwell to Bridport. A meso- band developed and moved further north than anticipated, causing snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. We picked up 2.9 inches in 1 hour here at BTV during this band. Moving forward expect this initial band to lift northeast of our cwa by 02z, however, some additional lighter bands of snow will continue to impact central/southern cwa thru midnight or so. Have updated snowfall maps and qpf to match our thinking.

I saw this band approaching on the radar, and the snowfall rate turned out to be pretty robust as it came through here. I’d cleared the snowboards at 6:00 P.M., and as of 6:30 P.M. there was already an addition 2.6” of accumulation, so the snowfall was in excess of 5”/hr. during that period.

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.21” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.21 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.0 Snow Density: 9.1% H2O Temperature: 30.9 F Sky: Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps for the current storm, which has been given the name Winter Storm Quincy by TWC. There aren’t really any winter weather alerts this far north in the state, but I have seen some fairly steady snow this afternoon in the Burlington and Waterbury areas. The projected accumulations map has us in the 3-4” range, and the point forecast suggests something in the 2-4” range, so the agreement is fairly good there.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 25.2 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 42.6 F Sky: Sprinkles/Mist Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.4 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.5 Snow Density: 5.7% H2O Temperature: 30.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Thanks for the great thoughts PF; it indeed sounds decent luck in the valleys with synoptic storms, and a dearth of bread and butter events/cyclonic backside flow is a combination that could explain the interesting valley/mountain snowfall distribution we’ve seen.

As I recall, you’re a touch north of me and PF with respect to latitude, but it still sounds like snowfall is a little more behind average pace over there. From what I’ve seen, the next chances for snow still appear to be the chance for a touch on the back side of this current system, and then that late week one you mentioned. The one later this week definitely has some potential for snow in the elevations at the moment per the BTV NWS forecast discussion: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 726 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... While main surface low tracks well north of the region, models indicate the potential for a secondary low to form along the main frontal boundary. Overall, this system looks not too shabby with nose of ~160kt 300mb jet tracking across western NY into New England, upper trough becomes negatively tilted and a fairly strong thermal boundary is apparent at 700mb. The best dynamics 9previously mentioned) arrive toward 18z Friday with a period of heavy rain/(mountain) snow likely ahead of main frontal boundary. 24-hr QPF ending 00z Saturday among main global guidance (GFS, EMCWF, CMC) show between 0.40-0.80" of precipitation falling. The trend on that secondary low development will probably be the thing to watch. If the QPF numbers mentioned above were to come in as mostly snow at elevation, that would hold some potential for some decent turns. It really comes down to how much liquid equivalent falls as snow though – with the base having gone through a thorough thaw/freeze at all elevations at this point, it either has to be warm enough to soften, or there has to be enough liquid equivalent for a semi-decent resurfacing. Everything in between isn’t really worth it aside from race training or going out to ski some firm groomers.

I can’t quite say how snowpack in the local hills compares to normal, but down in the valley bottom in our area, snowpack is definitely below average right now. At our stake the depth is 8 inches, which is roughly half the average for this date. Of course snowpack in the valleys can be highly variable this time of year, but in contrast to the snowfall that’s been fairly close to average at our site, snowpack has been more notably below average this season. Snow-depth days for the season thus far are 76.5% of average. In the highest elevations, snowpack seems to be closer to normal despite what appears to be below average snowfall. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still an inch above average even after all the recent consolidation:

Thanks for the update PF. In terms of snowfall, the local mountains have seemed to be a bit behind where we are in the valleys for whatever reason. At my site, season snowfall is 121.5”, which is 6.5” behind average pace, or 94.9% of average. At BTV, season snowfall is 63.7”, which is 2.1” behind average pace, or 96.8% of average. For season snowfall numbers thus far for the resorts on the spine of the Northern Greens I’m seeing: Jay Peak: 264” Smuggler’s Notch: 224” Stowe: 214” Bolton Valley: 192” I don’t have daily snowfall numbers for the resorts, but those numbers clearly seem to be behind the pace of the valley numbers, most notably as one heads farther south. The usual proportion of simply doubling my snowfall numbers would suggest the local mountains should be around 240-250” right now, but Stowe and Bolton Valley are definitely behind that pace. Aside from Jay Peak, it would take a really strong rest of March and April to get to that typical 300”+ range, so they’ve got to be behind that valley snowfall pace. Typically, if temperatures are on the warm side, one would expect the mountains to make out better than the valleys relative to average, but I’m not quite sure what sort of setup favors the reverse. Perhaps it’s a lack of big storms with substantial backside snows, or maybe a bit of a decrease in the number of bread and butter events? Do you have any thoughts on the disparity based on your observations from the mountain?

That’s interesting, this certainly hasn’t felt like 2011-2012 at our site. That season ended with less snowfall than we’ve had already this season, and we’ve still got weeks of potential snowfall to go. Unlike this season, that season was constantly behind the eight ball in terms of snowfall and was never really able to catch up to average. And, it literally seemed to stop dead in its tracks in March: The 2011-2012 season sort of sets the benchmark for what I would consider a typical “poor season” here, being just a bit over 1 S.D. (1.09 S.D.) below the mean, and this season just hasn’t felt like that. I know the SNE crew have mostly “checked out” on the season because of what the normal climatology is like down there at this time of year, but as I mentioned in my other post, a typical season up here has a lot of snowfall yet to go at this point – almost 40 inches even down here in the valley, and substantially more in the mountains.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.02” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 19.2 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches Based on the radar, it looks like this event is complete. The next chance for snow is apparently Tuesday night on the back side of a midweek system, but there appear to be additional chances not too far on its heels with the progressive pattern: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 622 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... System then exits east Tuesday night with any lingering showers tapering off over time and possibly ending as a little light snow, especially in elevated terrain. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Looking further out the forecast becomes somewhat more uncertain due to timing differences among the 00Z global model output. Overall a progressive pattern will continue under fairly fast zonal flow and seasonably mild temperatures - not uncommon as we begin to pull out of deep winter and march toward early spring. Several other systems of weak to modest strength will likely affect the region with on and off rain/snow shower activity, though PoPs will be capped in the chance category given aforementioned model discrepancies and relatively light precipitation.

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Light Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

Thanks for the update CF, it was great to get the detailed Gilpin Mountain BC report with images and maps. These trips can be a bit of a challenge and not as enjoyable under less than optimal snow conditions, but getting out for the exploration is still a huge chunk of the fun. Checking my reports, I guess my last trip to Gilpin was back in 2001, and we were actually using snowshoes as well back then because we didn’t yet have skins. Looking back at my trip report, I see we generally topped out at ~2,600’ where we were because the terrain seemed to be getting a bit flatter. Note that if you have multiple vehicles you can get a partial assist on laps by parking the 2nd vehicle lower on the pass, which is what we did on our visit. You can also hitch a ride if there’s enough activity, such as on weekends. That’s kind of a nice addition, but certainly not necessary. At some point I’d also like to visit Domey’s Dome, which is another peak there that is supposedly fun for backcountry touring. The access there isn’t quite as slick because it’s back a bit farther from Route 242, but it would be fun to check it out during a longer session.

At observations time this morning the precipitation was a mix of what appeared to be granular flakes, graupel, and maybe some sleet, so snow levels are back down to the lower mountain valleys. The forecast suggests chances for light snow over the next couple of days, but daytime temperatures seem pretty marginal for much accumulation in the valleys.

A few shots from Friday/weekend skiing at Bolton in association with Winter Storm Odell: