J.Spin

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.21” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.21 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.0 Snow Density: 9.1% H2O Temperature: 30.9 F Sky: Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps for the current storm, which has been given the name Winter Storm Quincy by TWC. There aren’t really any winter weather alerts this far north in the state, but I have seen some fairly steady snow this afternoon in the Burlington and Waterbury areas. The projected accumulations map has us in the 3-4” range, and the point forecast suggests something in the 2-4” range, so the agreement is fairly good there.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 25.2 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 42.6 F Sky: Sprinkles/Mist Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.4 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.5 Snow Density: 5.7% H2O Temperature: 30.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Thanks for the great thoughts PF; it indeed sounds decent luck in the valleys with synoptic storms, and a dearth of bread and butter events/cyclonic backside flow is a combination that could explain the interesting valley/mountain snowfall distribution we’ve seen.

As I recall, you’re a touch north of me and PF with respect to latitude, but it still sounds like snowfall is a little more behind average pace over there. From what I’ve seen, the next chances for snow still appear to be the chance for a touch on the back side of this current system, and then that late week one you mentioned. The one later this week definitely has some potential for snow in the elevations at the moment per the BTV NWS forecast discussion: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 726 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... While main surface low tracks well north of the region, models indicate the potential for a secondary low to form along the main frontal boundary. Overall, this system looks not too shabby with nose of ~160kt 300mb jet tracking across western NY into New England, upper trough becomes negatively tilted and a fairly strong thermal boundary is apparent at 700mb. The best dynamics 9previously mentioned) arrive toward 18z Friday with a period of heavy rain/(mountain) snow likely ahead of main frontal boundary. 24-hr QPF ending 00z Saturday among main global guidance (GFS, EMCWF, CMC) show between 0.40-0.80" of precipitation falling. The trend on that secondary low development will probably be the thing to watch. If the QPF numbers mentioned above were to come in as mostly snow at elevation, that would hold some potential for some decent turns. It really comes down to how much liquid equivalent falls as snow though – with the base having gone through a thorough thaw/freeze at all elevations at this point, it either has to be warm enough to soften, or there has to be enough liquid equivalent for a semi-decent resurfacing. Everything in between isn’t really worth it aside from race training or going out to ski some firm groomers.

I can’t quite say how snowpack in the local hills compares to normal, but down in the valley bottom in our area, snowpack is definitely below average right now. At our stake the depth is 8 inches, which is roughly half the average for this date. Of course snowpack in the valleys can be highly variable this time of year, but in contrast to the snowfall that’s been fairly close to average at our site, snowpack has been more notably below average this season. Snow-depth days for the season thus far are 76.5% of average. In the highest elevations, snowpack seems to be closer to normal despite what appears to be below average snowfall. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still an inch above average even after all the recent consolidation:

Thanks for the update PF. In terms of snowfall, the local mountains have seemed to be a bit behind where we are in the valleys for whatever reason. At my site, season snowfall is 121.5”, which is 6.5” behind average pace, or 94.9% of average. At BTV, season snowfall is 63.7”, which is 2.1” behind average pace, or 96.8% of average. For season snowfall numbers thus far for the resorts on the spine of the Northern Greens I’m seeing: Jay Peak: 264” Smuggler’s Notch: 224” Stowe: 214” Bolton Valley: 192” I don’t have daily snowfall numbers for the resorts, but those numbers clearly seem to be behind the pace of the valley numbers, most notably as one heads farther south. The usual proportion of simply doubling my snowfall numbers would suggest the local mountains should be around 240-250” right now, but Stowe and Bolton Valley are definitely behind that pace. Aside from Jay Peak, it would take a really strong rest of March and April to get to that typical 300”+ range, so they’ve got to be behind that valley snowfall pace. Typically, if temperatures are on the warm side, one would expect the mountains to make out better than the valleys relative to average, but I’m not quite sure what sort of setup favors the reverse. Perhaps it’s a lack of big storms with substantial backside snows, or maybe a bit of a decrease in the number of bread and butter events? Do you have any thoughts on the disparity based on your observations from the mountain?

That’s interesting, this certainly hasn’t felt like 2011-2012 at our site. That season ended with less snowfall than we’ve had already this season, and we’ve still got weeks of potential snowfall to go. Unlike this season, that season was constantly behind the eight ball in terms of snowfall and was never really able to catch up to average. And, it literally seemed to stop dead in its tracks in March: The 2011-2012 season sort of sets the benchmark for what I would consider a typical “poor season” here, being just a bit over 1 S.D. (1.09 S.D.) below the mean, and this season just hasn’t felt like that. I know the SNE crew have mostly “checked out” on the season because of what the normal climatology is like down there at this time of year, but as I mentioned in my other post, a typical season up here has a lot of snowfall yet to go at this point – almost 40 inches even down here in the valley, and substantially more in the mountains.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.02” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 19.2 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches Based on the radar, it looks like this event is complete. The next chance for snow is apparently Tuesday night on the back side of a midweek system, but there appear to be additional chances not too far on its heels with the progressive pattern: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 622 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... System then exits east Tuesday night with any lingering showers tapering off over time and possibly ending as a little light snow, especially in elevated terrain. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Looking further out the forecast becomes somewhat more uncertain due to timing differences among the 00Z global model output. Overall a progressive pattern will continue under fairly fast zonal flow and seasonably mild temperatures - not uncommon as we begin to pull out of deep winter and march toward early spring. Several other systems of weak to modest strength will likely affect the region with on and off rain/snow shower activity, though PoPs will be capped in the chance category given aforementioned model discrepancies and relatively light precipitation.

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Light Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

If we end up notably subpar on snowfall for the season here, it will really have to be due to March and April coming in lean. We’re currently at 96.2% of average, and that’s after a lull in snowfall the past several days. As the seasonal snowfall plot shows below, we’ve been skirting either side of that mean cumulative snowfall line pretty well, probably too well to call it far off from average at this point. I think the local mountains might be a bit more behind their averages than we are down here, but maybe PF can speak to that. We’ve still got several weeks of potential snowfall to go up here in NNE – on average we’d expected almost 40 inches of additional snow at our site here in the valley, and of course much more at elevation. We’ll have to see how these upcoming weeks play out, but we’re already within 1 S.D. of the mean on total season snowfall, so we can’t end up farther below average than that. We should be adding a bit with this next storm because we’ve got some decent snow falling right now with that novel northeast flow that PF mentioned above.

Thanks for the update CF, it was great to get the detailed Gilpin Mountain BC report with images and maps. These trips can be a bit of a challenge and not as enjoyable under less than optimal snow conditions, but getting out for the exploration is still a huge chunk of the fun. Checking my reports, I guess my last trip to Gilpin was back in 2001, and we were actually using snowshoes as well back then because we didn’t yet have skins. Looking back at my trip report, I see we generally topped out at ~2,600’ where we were because the terrain seemed to be getting a bit flatter. Note that if you have multiple vehicles you can get a partial assist on laps by parking the 2nd vehicle lower on the pass, which is what we did on our visit. You can also hitch a ride if there’s enough activity, such as on weekends. That’s kind of a nice addition, but certainly not necessary. At some point I’d also like to visit Domey’s Dome, which is another peak there that is supposedly fun for backcountry touring. The access there isn’t quite as slick because it’s back a bit farther from Route 242, but it would be fun to check it out during a longer session.

Great! And note that you may need to update the link in your AmWx signature if you want that to go specifically to the snow page – I just clicked on it and it goes to the main page now instead of the snow section due to the change.

Thanks for the heads up Kevin - everything seems to be working fine on the user end - I'll let you know if anything comes up with respect to data entry etc.

At observations time this morning the precipitation was a mix of what appeared to be granular flakes, graupel, and maybe some sleet, so snow levels are back down to the lower mountain valleys. The forecast suggests chances for light snow over the next couple of days, but daytime temperatures seem pretty marginal for much accumulation in the valleys.

A few shots from Friday/weekend skiing at Bolton in association with Winter Storm Odell:

From a quick look at the models, I think at least a few inches at elevation through 00 Z Friday is quite likely. Right now the BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions 1-4” from late tonight into Wednesday, and then some additional snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday in their discussion. Something like 4-6” wouldn’t surprise me, so the potential is there for some fresh snow-enhanced conditions on the slopes in the Wednesday-Thursday time period. Up above 3,000’ or so, temperatures look to be below freezing right into the weekend once they come down overnight. After that it looks like there’s some snow potential for Friday night with that northern stream system. As someone mentioned in the discussion thread, it would be kind of nice to see what it would do if it wasn’t under the influence of that developing low off the coast and just came through as a Northern Greens bread and butter sort of system, but maybe some inverted trough type of setup could be beneficial. In any event it looks like the slopes have a couple of potential shots going as we head through the next few days, and as always it will be fun to see what the mountains do with the moisture.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. I found 0.2” of snow on the boards this morning, which the BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates is in association with warm air advection from this next frontal system coming into the area Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 22.4 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.05” L.E. We’ve cleared out, so this should mark the end of this event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 18.7 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

I’ve updated the north to south listing with what appear to be the final totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Odell with what I’ve found today. Storm totals topped out in the 30-40” range in the Northern Greens, 10-20” in the Central Greens, and 2-6” in the Southern Greens. This was definitely one of those events with a notable disparity between the northern and southern areas of the spine. Jay Peak: 38” Smuggler’s Notch: 36” Stowe: 40” Bolton Valley: 30” Mad River Glen: 20” Sugarbush: 11” Pico: 11” Killington: 11” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 6” Magic Mountain: 4” Stratton: 6” Mount Snow: 6”

In that specific duration, or for full storm cycles in general? I posted the approximate numbers earlier in the thread using extrapolation from my data: 36-40” storm cycles on Mansfield should be roughly a once-a-year occurrence. I would defer to PF for more exact numbers, but I don’t believe he typically tracks snowfall by specific storm cycles/events the way I do with mine.

I’ve added the updated Mansfield Stake Plot from Matt Parrilla’s site below, which incorporates yesterday’s addition. We had more snow overnight here at the house and it’s snowing decently right now, and I’m sure Mansfield has gotten some as well, but it’s been pretty fluffy stuff so I don’t know if it will enhance the snowpack depth very much.