J.Spin

Event totals: 7.1” Snow/0.77” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 22.6 F Sky: Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 6.3” Snow/0.69” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.7 inches New Liquid: 0.41 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 28.6 F Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

There were some substantial changes in the maps for the afternoon update from the BTV NWS – the Winter Storm Warnings were expanded even into the Champlain Valley, and the projected accumulations were bumped. They talked about the reasoning in the afternoon update: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 431 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 431 PM EST Saturday...Winter storm warnings have been expanded and are now in effect for most of the North Country based on 12 hour snowfall in excess of 6 inches in most locations. No big changes from our previous thinking as the ongoing snowfall has generally played out as expected. However, as the event has begun we are seeing ground truth and latest model data support generally higher snowfall amounts than previously forecast. In particular, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast one hourly precipitation rate has performed well, showing areas of >0.05" liquid spreading across much of our area this afternoon. As a result, expect hourly snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch will persist for several hours, tending to shift towards eastern Vermont, before tapering off towards 2 AM.

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.28” L.E. The 6:00 P.M. liquid analysis is in, and it reveals a snow density just a bit above 10% H2O, which is not nearly as dense as some of these events can produce. The point forecast here called for 2-4” today, so the accumulation thus far seems right on track with that. I think the liquid might be a bit more than expected for this period, but I’d have to look into the exact numbers. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.6 inches New Liquid: 0.28 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.3 Snow Density: 10.8% H2O Temperature: 27.7 F Sky: Snow (2-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

There’s been a bit of an update in the BTV NWS advisories map, with some Winter Storm Warnings being implemented in the Adirondacks, but there’s also been an update in the Event Total Snowfall map; there are some changes along the spine of the Greens with the areas of 8-12” shading vs. yesterday’s update. Our point forecast got a bump to near the 6-12” range. I didn’t pick anything out of the BTV NWS AFD that really detailed why there were some increases, but it may be because of the reduced dry slot issues they spoke about yesterday, or they did their usual last minute tweaks as the most recent modeling suggests. Our projected L.E. went up a bit to 0.70”, but that would still argue for the lower end of that range unless ratios are relatively large. I guess we’ll see what type of flakes we get. The most recent BTV NWS maps for the storm are below:

Flakes started up here at our site right around noon. It seemed like snow was on its way though, because Camel’s Hump had disappeared into the snow quite a while ago.

I got an alert that we’d been put under a Winter Storm Warning as well – it looks like that’s the alert level for everything east of the spine of the Greens. The latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast through Sunday is ~0.65” of liquid with a call for near the 6-10” range in snow. If the snow is dense as it can often be with these types of systems, we can certainly hedge toward the lower part of that range, but we’ll see how it plays out. I certainly plan to run liquid analyses as usual to see what the ratios are.

I saw this in this morning’s BTV NWS AFD, and you certainly can’t knock the enthusiasm! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Friday...Overall no major changes to the forecast we`ve been highlighting for the weekend, but signals are now pointing towards an all snow event with no mix for once. Models are in good agreement showing low pressure tracking west to east along a stalled frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states Saturday afternoon to east of Cape Cod Saturday night. Where previous guidance indicated a 850-700mb dry slot working into central/southern portions of the forecast area Saturday night, that now appears to stay south of the region which will keep the DGZ saturated throughout the storm. Hence, we`re finally looking at an all snow event with no mix, yay!

I had my phone with me last night because we’d lost power with the winds, and early this morning I got a text that we had a Winter Storm Watch in place. Checking the BTV NWS point forecast for our site, it calls for something in the 4-8” range with this next system. If this is a SWFE type system, I usually find that the lower end of that might be more in the range of the accumulations we actually see, since the forecast L.E. may be a good estimate, but flake size tends toward the smaller end. This makes for denser accumulations, which can be great for the base. I’ve added the latest BTV NWS maps below.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.50” L.E. We picked up a couple tenths of snow yesterday evening on the front end of this system – there were some small flakes as the system started up, then much larger flakes at times, and eventually more granular/sleety material mixed in. From what I can tell, this is actually part of Winter Storm Bankston that brought some big snows to the Sierra and strong winds to the Midwest. The reach of the storm is huge – if you look at the current surface map you can see that the low pressure is up above Lake Superior, with a warm front stretching off the east coast and a cold front all the way back to Arizona. It’s the warm front that brought us this first bout of precipitation from the system. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 42.3 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.50” L.E. It looked like this was going to be one of those storms without any accumulation down here in the valley, but I did find a tenth of an inch here at our site this morning. Although this system wasn’t a big snow producer in our area, it did reach the threshold to become the first named winter storm of the season (Winter Storm Atticus) because of its effects in the Midwest. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 33.4 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: Trace

Even though it’s only your second season there, one thing that’s been blatantly obvious this season is that you’ve “matured” a lot in your understanding of your site’s climate, and the NNE mountain climate vibe in general. Last season you appeared stressed about every event that wasn’t 100% snow, but this season you just seem to roll with the frequent storms and weather changes like a seasoned NNE vet. And, your appreciation of our bread and butter refreshers seems to be growing as well. The climate up here really is nothing like the Mid-Atlantic, NYC, or much of SNE, where the season can often consist of a lot “waiting” for the right synoptic storm or pattern to hit. I can see how in that sort of climate, if you’re looking for snow (for recreation, livelihood, or whatever) it could be stressful when it melts because you never know when it might come back. Up here, there’s almost always another chance at winter weather just around the corner, even if it’s not some sort of synoptic monster. The fact that you’ve had frequent snow cover and 20 inches of snow already this season, in what everyone seems to refer to as a really poor general pattern for snow, can attest to that. My records show we’ve already had 14 accumulating storms up here so far this season, and we’re only a third of the way through December. That’s also with an October that was rather warm and didn’t contribute the typical storm or two. While the snow climatology up here is amazing, our climate still isn’t 100% snow from every storm, all the time. As I always say, I like to describe the climate here as giving us at least some snow/frozen from just about every storm once we get to December. That’s sort of how it’s been thus far, with even the warm-sector storms giving us a bit of something. This storm has definitely had some front-side frozen for some of the NNE folks, but as PF mentioned earlier, this system might be one of those exceptions for some sites. The back side just doesn’t seem to have much snow potential with it, although I do see a bit of snow in the forecast for the higher elevations.

Yeah, it sounds like a great piece - I know lots about the resort from being around and skiing there so much, but had never heard that story. Such a cool story for a resort opening. I'll have to see if I can catch the show.

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 22.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.14” L.E. We’ve had some flurries out there, but I think that’s the tail end of this system. The next chance for snow appears to be tonight with a weak warm front. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 18.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

These comments prompted me to head to the data, since we’re far enough into the winter season now to take a look. We’re removed enough from the SVT climate that the data can’t quite speak to the averages there, but for up here in the Northern Greens, snowfall says that we’re right on track. You can see from the plot that we were a bit behind normal pace in early November, but Mother Nature has caught right up to her averages. Mean snowfall through today at our site is 23.5”, so this season has been hanging with that average pace. We’ll probably fall off average pace in the coming days because of the tracks that some of the larger systems are forecast to take. It won’t mean no snow in the coming stretch, but averages now get up into the 1-2”/day range, and the upcoming storms in the forecast just don’t look like they’ll be able to maintain that pace in the short term. Indeed as noted, nothing epic, but when average means plenty of light events, snowfall on many days, consistent snow cover, constant snow replenishment, etc. etc., then “average” is quite good.

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.13” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.1 Snow Density: 5.8% H2O Temperature: 24.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. Light snow was falling this morning at observations time, with a tenth of an inch down on the boards. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 22.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.50” L.E. The back side of this system delivered a tenth of an inch here at our site, and I’d say the system is done because I haven’t seen any precipitation since then. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 29.7 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, I saw that on the GFS – looks like it shows snow for a good chunk of Wednesday and Thursday on the latest run. That can be one of the problems with these coastal things – sometimes they just end up screwing with perfectly good northern stream systems by messing up the energy, so you’d often just as soon have them get out of the way and let the bread and butter do its thing in a more reliable manner. Obviously those larger coastal storms can be great, but the reliability is just so low compared to the typical Clippers we see.

Yeah, perfect phrase for those types of post-frontal accumulations. Mother Nature seems pretty angry based on the wind – our power flickered a few times and even went out for a few minutes. On these types of nights, maybe have a beverage from these folks…

I just noticed that snow is mixing in with the rain here at our place, so colder air must be moving in now on the back side of this storm.

November Totals Days with new snow: 16 (+5) Accumulating Storms: 8 (+2) Snowfall: 15.0” (+1.2”) Liquid Equivalent: 5.59” (+1.65”) SDD: 25.5 (-6.7) I’ve put together the snow numbers for November at our site. It was a decent November for both snowfall and liquid as the positive departures show, but snowfall was right around average and not up there with the upper echelon of Novembers – this November ranked 9th out of 16 seasons. It actually felt like a typical November overall, and that’s good because the numbers suggest that. Snow-depth days were a bit low, but not outrageously so. With roughly an average snowfall performance, this November continues the solid run of average to above average Novembers we’ve had for the past six seasons as the plot shows below. As I noted earlier in the month, this November did not have the feel of those very low snow Novembers with benign (albeit comfortable) weather, and it indeed the data indicate that it wasn’t one of those.

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches