I like the second one too. Sharper trough out west with more downstream ridging....84 hr NAM, what can go wrong?
The 18z GFS is going to have a huge viewing audience.
Are you arguing they are dependent events? Someone can flip a coin and get heads six times consecutively...on the seventh flip the odds of heads are still 50/50.
I's like we're going up against Greg Maddox in his prime. Everytime we think we have him figured out and are ready to rake, he gives us a subtle change of speed and location....and we whiff like fools.
Let me grasp at a thin reed here....this season, the 50/50 lows have had less sticking power than initially modelled. Maybe, just maybe, it will leave the playing field half-a-day faster.
I think the ridge over Hispanola is the biggest problem. It turns the atmosphere over the east coast into a threshing machine. Although it does seem to be banished after the proverbial 10 days....