Go Kart Mozart

61f in CHO right now. Pretty wild stuff for them.

Precip breaking out over Arkansas was not modelled. This baby is starting to leaf-out. Let the hallucinations begin! Also, do we need a separate thread for this one?

That 969 just east of ACK looks good to me.

Yup, that map is hard pore cornography!

It's a cliché, but anything from an overdamped cutter to weak-sauce scraper are feasible. At least we have something to track!

Wow, I am back from a few hours of errands, and the euro has caved to the GFS on both the mid-Atlantic wave and next week's storm. Wonderful.

Sunday might be a radar hallucination special...

This does not blow chunks. Let's have a quick hitter, 8"-12", with Tsnow:

Agreed, but in terms of this winter, I suspect it might be more ENSO. Question: Would the HC influence in general, be less of a factor for SoCal? That region of the Pac perhaps does not have the warm water that is found in the Caribbean, etc., meaning they have a less aggressive HC circulation? I ask that because this winter's trough is sooo deep in that region.

That's disturbing.

Meanwhile, the mighty NAM does not like the second-wave theory.

I think it was Raindance (I could be wrong) who posted research showing the HC expansion is a big deal in summer, but not winter. As compressed as the flow is in our region, there is no such problem out west. Could it be the compression we are experiencing is primarily a La Nina issue?

This is better than a sharp stick in the eye:

Could it be that a cutter is needed to pound down the SE ridge? It's hard to get a big benchmark storm until that ridge has been banished.

Damn....if you are a fan of US cloud cover....this is a home run:

George loves the NAVGEM.

But it's only $5 a month!

perhaps your best post ever?

At least it is conceivable that something good can come from that wave.

I am not clear on your vaccine analogy. So Dr. Salk and his team have settled on the "optimal mixture" for the vaccine (the operational). If 51 kids are given the Salk vaccine, and each kid receives a slightly perturbed mixture (an ensemble member), will those 51 kids do better, statistically, than the one kid receiving the optimal mixture? I suppose forecasting really can't be compared to vaccines anyway, as vaccination errors don't compound over time in the manner of prediction errors. I am assuming the benefit of ensembles is to smooth out the "compounding error chaos". I am sure they have value after X days...I just wonder if we are not prone to something like the Golden Mean Fallacy, where we overrate the ensembles by viewing the average answer as a good answer. I suspect Tip will chime in on this...if so, please keep it under 50,000 words.

So, you are teaching a math class with 51 knuckleheads and one bright student. You give them a tough problem. Is the mean answer of the 51 knuckleheads really going to better than the bright student's answer? Another way to phrase this....does statistical analysis really show that an ensemble mean is better than the operational, and if so, at what time range? I recall the pros on this site saying that four days-out is the magic cutoff....is that based on analysis mythology?

Holy cow, 1070 mb. The North American record is 1078.

1064 high in the arctic north of The Yukon. Get ready for some cold air down here.

Now I've been happy latelyThinking about the good things to comeAnd I believe it could beSomething good has begun I like the vibe as we move into January.

January! 2023.